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Let’s Talk About Swing States and the Rural Vote [1]
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Date: 2024-10-16
Editor’s Note: This article was originally published in Keep It Rural, an email newsletter from the Daily Yonder. Like what you see? Join the mailing list for more rural news, thoughts, and analysis in your inbox each week.
Rural counties in swing states could decide the 2024 presidential election, particularly in the most rural swing states like North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The margin between votes for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is expected to be razor-thin, according to polls, which means the election will likely hinge on the smallest of changes in voter behavior as compared to the 2020 election.
Rural voters are one of the most consequential groups for Republicans and Democrats. They make up about 20% of the electorate, and over the past decade, have leaned toward the right. In 2016, rural voters were credited with putting Trump in office: 62% of rural America voted Republican.
There are countless theories about why rural America is colored shades of fuschia, but whatever the reason, it does not mean rural is synonymous with Trump (no matter what some pundits might believe).
It appears the Harris-Walz campaign recognizes that: at a campaign event yesterday in Lawrence County, Pennsylvania, vice presidential candidate Tim Walz announced his ticket’s rural agenda. Among other issues, the plan seeks to improve healthcare access, support beginning farmers and ranchers, and expand broadband connectivity.
That Walz did this in Lawrence County matters. Located in the western part of the state, this rural county of 86,000 people has historically voted red: In 2016, 62% of the county’s votes went to Trump. In 2020, 64%. This county has also experienced rural hospital closures and broadband challenges (the only hospital in Lawrence County’s Ellwood City, a borough of 7,500 people, was shut down in late 2019.)
Cogently addressing rural issues like these – and visiting the places experiencing them – could be a huge boon to Harris and Walz’s rural outreach, if they can maintain it these next three weeks.
While it’s unlikely historically red counties like Lawrence will flip, whittling down the margin of difference will be crucial for a Democratic win. That’s because presidential elections use the Electoral College to add up votes, the results of which often boil down to marginal voting differences.
Like most U.S. states, Pennsylvania adds up each ballot and whichever party wins the majority of votes gets all of the state’s 19 electoral votes. The summation of electoral votes from all 50 states is what wins presidential elections, but it’s often decided by just a few swing states that are not predictably red or blue (this year, the swing states are Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Michigan, and Wisconsin). Targeting rural voters in these seven states is crucial because even a 1-2% difference could swing the results.
These small percentage changes are completely possible. That 2% difference in the number of Republican votes in Lawrence County between 2016 and 2020 is proof.
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