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Jon Tester Hopes to Tap Montana’s Rich History of Split-Ticket Voting [1]

['Dr. Eric Ostermeier', 'Connor Cobb', 'Cecil Crusher', 'Founded', 'Authored Dr. Eric Ostermeier']

Date: 2024-08-13

No other state has backed presidential and U.S. Senate nominees from different parties in a majority of election cycles over the last 100+ years

With Democrats clinging to hold their advantage in the U.S. Senate, one of many key seats the party can ill afford to lose in November is Montana’s Class I seat held by Jon Tester.

Tester has won the seat by less than four points in each of his first three terms including a 3.7-point victory over former U.S. Representative Denny Rehberg in 2012 while Mitt Romney carried the state for the GOP by 13.7 points at the top of the ticket.

Republicans are overwhelmingly favored to win Montana’s Electoral College votes for the 14th time out of 15 cycles since 1968 but the race of Tester against former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy is expected to be quite close.

Tester is banking on Montana’s tops-in-the-nation history of splitting its vote for president and U.S. Senator to eke out yet another win in the otherwise Republican-controlled state.

Since its first voter preference election for the U.S. Senate in 1912, Montanans have cast their ballots for different political parties for president and U.S. Senator in 10 of 19 elections (52.6 percent).

No other state has done so in a majority of elections with North Dakota next at 50 percent (nine of 18).

Four other states have split their ticket for these offices in at least 40 percent of these cycles:

Rhode Island: Eight of 18 (44.4 percent)

Oregon: Nine of 21 (42.9 percent)

Louisiana: Eight of 19 (42.1 percent)

Maine: Eight of 19 (42.1 percent)

Missouri: Eight of 19 (42.1 percent)

Minnesota: Eight of 20 (40.0 percent)

In Montana’s case, all 10 of the instances of split-ticket voting saw the electorate back the Republican nominee for president and the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate:

1924: President Calvin Coolidge and U.S. Senator Thomas Walsh

1928: Herbert Hoover and U.S. Senator Burton Wheeler

1952: Dwight Eisenhower and U.S. Representative Mike Mansfield

1960: Vice President Richard Nixon and former U.S. Representative Lee Metcalf

1972: President Richard Nixon and U.S. Senator Metcalf

1976: President Gerald Ford and U.S. Representative Doc Melcher

1984: President Ronald Reagan and U.S. Senator Max Baucus

1996: U.S. Senator Bob Dole and Senator Baucus

2008: U.S. Senator John McCain and Senator Baucus

2012: Mitt Romney and U.S. Senator Jon Tester

Kansas is the only state never to split its ticket backing a Republican for president and a Democrat for U.S. Senator.

Meanwhile, 18 states have never done the reverse – voting for Democratic presidential and Republican U.S. Senatorial nominees: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Indiana, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Montana, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.

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[1] Url: https://smartpolitics.lib.umn.edu/2024/08/13/jon-tester-hopes-to-tap-montanas-rich-history-of-split-ticket-voting/

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