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Rural America Lost Population Over the Past Decade for the First Time in History [1]

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Date: 2022-02-18 13:38:39-05:00

Population gains were modest (2.8 percent) in adjacent counties that were not micropolitan (Adjacent Other) because of smaller contributions from natural increase (1.3 percent) and migration (1.5 percent). Among counties that were at some distance from metropolitan areas, those that had a large town (Nonadjacent Micropolitan) grew as rapidly (4.8 percent) as their adjacent counterparts. However, here natural increase accounted for a considerably larger share of the gain, increasing the population by 3.8 percent, compared to a migration gain that increased the population by 1 percent. Far from a metropolitan area, such large towns often serve as a locus for local employment, services, and activity. In contrast, nonadjacent counties without a large town (Nonadjacent Other) were the only group to lose population (-0.8 percent) between 2000 and 2010 because migration reduced the local population by -1.6 percent which exceeded the population gain from natural increase of 0.8 percent.

Rural demographic change between 2010 and 2020 contrasts sharply with the traditional trends of the previous decade. Only micropolitan counties gained population, and the gains in both Adjacent Micropolitan (0.8 percent) and Nonadjacent Micropolitan counties (1.2 percent) were less than a quarter of what they had been in the prior decade. Fewer than half the counties in each micropolitan group gained population during the decade. Among counties without a large town, the population declined by 2.5 percent in Adjacent Other and 3.2 percent in Nonadjacent Other counties, with more than 70 percent of each county group losing population. All four county groups experienced net outmigration, with the largest migration losses in the counties without a large town. Natural increase also diminished sharply in all four groups. The population declined among both county groups without a large town because more people died there than were born. Deaths exceeded births in more than 60 percent of these counties. Even among the micropolitan counties, natural increase was minimal, and nearly 40 percent of these counties had more deaths than births.

Given the economic turbulence of the past decade, rural demographic change also varied depending on a county’s economic base. Farming no longer dominates the rural economy, but it remains the most important economic activity in 443 rural counties. Nearly 78 percent of these counties lost population between 2010 and 2020 because minimal gains from natural increase were not enough to offset migration losses. Nearly 65 percent of the 357 counties dominated by manufacturing—traditionally a bright spot of rural demographic change—also lost population because migration losses exceeded dwindling natural increase. The demographic story was different in the overlapping groups of 296 nonmetropolitan recreational counties and 193 retirement destination counties which have natural amenities, recreational opportunities, or quality-of-life advantages. Here population gains were widespread because migrants were attracted by the proximate natural and built amenities and related economic opportunities. Though migration gains were smaller than in previous decades, they still produced a population gain in nearly 60 percent of the recreational and retirement destination counties. These four groups do not encompass all nonmetropolitan counties, but they illustrate that rural demographic change is far from monolithic.

Conclusion

Between 2010 and 2020 population loss was widespread across rural America, with more than two-thirds of all nonmetropolitan counties losing population. Natural increase, which traditionally provided much of the rural population gain, diminished almost everywhere. In addition, more people left rural America than moved to it. As a result, nonmetropolitan America experienced an overall population loss for the first time in history. Population losses were greatest in rural counties that were far from metropolitan areas and did not include a large town. But even among counties proximate to urban areas that did include a large town, population gains were far less than in the previous decade.

This research demonstrates that the economic turbulence of the Great Recession and its aftermath had significant repercussions for demographic trends in nonmetropolitan America. If rural outmigration is ongoing, and deaths continue to exceed births in many rural areas due to low fertility and higher mortality among the aging rural population, then population losses are likely to continue in much of rural America. This research predates the onset of COVID-19, which generated additional social, economic, and epidemiological turbulence that significantly increased rural deaths and discouraged births. The recent population losses in nonmetropolitan counties, fostered by the turbulence of the last decade and soon to be exacerbated by COVID-19, may foster even more widespread population loss in the future. This will increase the incidence of rural depopulation, a downward demographic spiral that is already occurring in 35 percent of rural counties. Such depopulating rural counties face significant challenges maintaining critical infrastructure needed to provide quality health care, education, and a viable economy for the remaining residents.

Just as demographic trends shifted with the onset of the Great Recession, they may be shifting again. Recent estimates suggest that Adjacent Micropolitan counties may again be experiencing net migration gains and that migration losses have diminished in Other Adjacent counties. There is, however, no evidence of renewed natural increase in the recent data. These recent fluctuations in rural demographic trends underscore the importance of continuing to monitor population redistribution trends in an ever-changing rural America.

These findings are relevant to scholars, policymakers, and the media at a time when there is considerable interest in rural America. The demographic changes that are reshaping nonmetropolitan areas are important to contemporary policy making intended to increase the viability of rural communities and enhance their contribution to the nation’s material, environmental, and social well-being.

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[1] Url: https://carsey.unh.edu/publication-rural-america-lost-population-over-past-decade-for-first-time-in-history

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