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Why Do Older, White, Rural Residents Have Slower Broadband Speeds? [1]

['Roberto Gallardo', 'The Daily Yonder']

Date: 2023-11-22

Editor’s Note: Over the past 15 years, Roberto Gallardo has authored or co-authored more than 70 articles for the Daily Yonder. His primary concentration has been on rural broadband. In this submission, Gallardo looks at a finding from his last Daily Yonder article: that rural whites tend to have slower broadband access than people of color. It’s a counterintuitive fact, given that people of color generally tend to have less access – not more – to basic services.

Our previous analysis looked at average download and upload speeds for all Census tracts in the nation with population and more than 50 speed tests and specific demographic characteristics. The Census Bureau American Community Survey 2017-2021and internet speed test results from the Speedtest by Ookla Global Fixed Network Performance Maps were used.

We found that rural, older (age 65 or older), and white non-Hispanic tracts had slower download and upload speeds. The first two results were expected. However, we were not expecting to find that Census tracts with a higher share of white non-Hispanics had slower download and upload speeds. We offered two potential explanations in our previous article. First, it could be that since a higher share of white non-Hispanics live in rural areas, and rural has slower speeds, this may be reflected in the finding. Second, a higher share of white non-Hispanics is older (age 65 or older), and this group also had slower speeds, so this too could be reflected in the finding. Therefore, we take a deeper look at these two possible explanations.

We divided the 83,107 Census tracts used in this analysis between urban and rural. Urban tracts were those that had less than 50% of its population living in rural areas. Rural tracts were those with 50% or more of their population living in rural areas. The share of population living in rural areas was obtained by aggregating to the tract level 2020 Census blocks with a density of less than 425 housing units per square mile.

A total of 63,778 Census tracts were urban or roughly 77% of all tracts analyzed compared to 19,329 considered rural or 23%. The same methodology was used where these tracts were divided into ten groups or deciles with a similar number of tracts per group. A download and upload weighted average by number of speed tests was then calculated per group.

Figures 1 and 2 show the average download and upload speeds in megabits per second (Mbps) for urban and rural tracts and the share of white non-Hispanics. Several points are worth discussing. First, rural tracts overall had slower download and upload speeds regardless of their share of white non-Hispanic. This was discussed in our previous article where rural tracts had average slower speeds. Second, rural tracts indeed have a higher share of white non-Hispanics compared to urban tracts. Consider that the less white decile or decile number one in urban tracts had up to 8.3% of white non-Hispanics compared to up to 50.9% in rural tracts. The share per decile is included in parenthesis.

More importantly, however, is that as the share of white non-Hispanics increases (as you move from left to right on the graph), average download and upload speeds decreases, regardless of urban or rural tracts. The Pearson correlation coefficient[1] was negative—meaning that as one variable increased, the other decreased—though stronger for urban (p=-0.21) compared to rural (p=-0.03). In other words, the possibility that white non-Hispanics had lower average speeds because a higher share lived in rural areas that has slower speeds is not supported. Urban whites also had slower speeds and the correlation was stronger.

Figure 1. Urban Average Download & Upload Speeds in Mbps by White, non-Hispanic Deciles

Source: Purdue Center for Regional Development, Office of Engagement

Figure 2. Rural Average Download & Upload Speeds in Mbps by White, non-Hispanic Deciles



Source: Purdue Center for Regional Development, Office of Engagement

Another potential explanation is age. According to the 2017-2021 American Community Survey, 20.4% of white alone not Hispanic were age 65 or older compared to 16% of the U.S. population. As shown in the previous article, we know that as the share of those ages 65 or older increases, average internet speeds decreases. For this reason, we looked at urban and rural tracts where the share of 18 to 34 years old was one standard deviation higher than the average (34.4% in urban tracts and 31% in rural tracts). In the end, a total of 6,582 tracts were analyzed for urban areas and 892 tracts for rural areas.

Figures 3 & 4 show the share of white non-Hispanics and the average download and upload speeds controlling for urban/rural and a younger age group. As seen, the relationship between the share of white non-Hispanic and slower average speeds remains in both urban and rural areas, more so with download speeds. In other words, age is not the factor impacting this correlation. The Pearson correlation coefficient between download speeds and the share of white non-Hispanic for urban and younger areas was p=-0.21 compared to p=-0.02 for rural.

For example, the average download speed in urban tracts with an above average of younger residents where up to 20.5% were white non-Hispanic was 209 Mbps compared to 181 Mbps in areas where between 83% and 100% were white non-Hispanic.

Figure 3. Urban & Younger (Ages 18 to 34) Average Download & Upload Speeds in Mbps by White, non-Hispanic Deciles

Source: Purdue Center for Regional Development, Office of Engagement

Figure 4. Rural & Younger (Ages 18 to 34) Average Download & Upload Speeds in Mbps by White, non-Hispanic Deciles

Source: Purdue Center for Regional Development, Office of Engagement

In summary, both potential explanations—rural locations and older age groups—discussed in the first article do not seem to explain completely the unexpected relationship between a higher share of white non-Hispanics and slower average download and, to a certain extent, upload speeds. Could it be that we have uncovered a “reverse” digital divide? In fact, other analyses (see here and here) also point to this potential “reverse” digital divide or at least a situation where racial/ethnic minorities are not lagging.

[1] The Pearson correlation coefficient ranges from -1 to +1. It denotes a correlation between variables where a value closer to -1 or +1 indicates a very strong relationship. Values closer to zero indicate a weaker relationship.

Roberto Gallardo is the vice president for engagement and director of the Purdue Center for Regional Development and an associate professor in the Agricultural Economics Department. He holds an electronics engineering undergraduate degree, a master’s in economic development, and a Ph.D. in public policy and administration. Gallardo has worked with rural communities over the past decade conducting local & regional community economic development, including use of technology for development.

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