(C) Daily Kos

(C) Daily Kos
This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered.
. . . . . . . . . .

Virginia 2025 Election: Richmond Area the Jackpot Region for Expanding Our Majority [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2025-09-14

There are EIGHT districts that MVP Harris won in 2024 that are held by Republicans in the Virginia House of Delegates.

Even in a weak year for Democrats, Kamala Harris carried 59 of Virginia’s House of Delegates districts, according to computations by the Virginia-based State Navigate site that tracks state legislative races across the country. Democrats currently hold 51 seats in the House, with Republicans claiming 49. The fact that the Democratic presidential candidate carried eight districts now held by Republicans raises the question of whether Democrats are positioned to increase their majority in the House in the 2025 elections. In addition, three other Republican-held House districts saw Donald Trump carry those districts but with less than a majority vote. In four more, Trump won with less than 52% of the vote, which suggests that those Republican incumbents might be vulnerable, too. Ten more Republican legislators are in districts that Trump carried with between 52% and 55% of the vote. By contrast, no Democratic legislators are in districts that Trump won. Only one is in a district where Harris won with less than 52% of the vote; three are in districts where she won with between 52% and 55%.

The gubernatorial race is drawing most of the attention right now. However, the Democratic Party has a slim 51-49 lead in the House of Delegates that they are looking to expand upon. The Richmond area is a key part of going on the offensive with FOUR key races that could shake things up in the state capital. There is also one race in SW Virginia I wish to talk about that was one of the closest in 2023.

What could be the secret to winning these races? Candidate familiarity with three featured races having the same candidate as 2023.

All 100 seats of the Virginia House of Delegates will be on the ballot this year, although only a dozen or so are competitive. Three of the most competitive races are rematches between the same candidates that ran in the last election cycle. Two years ago, Democrat Kim Pope Adams lost to Republican Kim Taylor in one of the most competitive elections for the House of Delegates. The margin of victory was only 78 votes; that’s less than one percent of the vote in a district that includes Petersburg and Dinwiddie. After the election, her 17-year-old son had some advice. "He said, 'Mom, championships are won in the offseason.' And I didn't quite understand what he meant then, but in these past two years, it's true," she says. "The community sees that I haven't left their side. And I believe that in November that's going to be reflected in the vote totals." Adams isn’t alone. Republican Delegate Amanda Batten also has a rematch in James City County and Williamsburg against Democrat Jessica Anderson. "I think we did a lot of inspiration in 2023. We built that momentum in 2024," Anderson says. "And now we're ready to get the job done in 2025." In Blacksburg and Roanoke, incumbent Republican Delegate Chris Obenshain also has a rematch against Democrat Lily Franklin. "That's why the first coordinated office with Abigail Spanberger is in Southwest Virginia and nowhere else right now is because they're taking this race very seriously and they're taking all of Virginia seriously," says Franklin. "So, I think that's probably one of the biggest differences."

Before I delve into the races, here is an opportunity to donate to ALL of the other seats in Virginia. Donating to these races allows us to expand the map and force the GOP to spend everywhere!

x 📣 I've also created a SECOND VA fundraising page focusing on the REDDEST districts in the state. Most of these Dems won't win, but funding them means they can run competitive races & force VA Republicans to defend "safe" turf. WE HAVE 62 DAYS. DONATE TODAY!

secure.actblue.com/donate/vaval...

[image or embed] — Charles Gaba (@charlesgaba.com) September 2, 2025 at 9:39 AM

Big on writing postcards to voters? Here are some options that pattioric informed me of in the last article!

postcards4va.com Easy to get signed up and get addresses- you can pick the district you want to write for. I also ordered some postcards (50) only $8 on the site link to Etsy. You do have to pay for postage. I’ve also written 100 postcards for swing states (VA) site as well. (turnoutpac.org/) but you get random addresses, you can’t pick by district like you can on postcards4va.

And here is a chance to start making a difference in taking back the House of Representatives next year!

Join me in learning more about each of the five critical races below the fold.

Virginia HoD-41: Lily Franklin

This district features the Virginia Tech campus at Blacksburg tied with rural portions of Roanoke County in southwestern Virginia. Trump won this district by 2.9 points in 2024 with third party protest votes making a difference. The incumbent is Rep. Chris Obenshain, a Republican who was surprised by a robust challenge in 2023. He only won 50.3% to 49.6% which was closer than a lot of marquee races. Lily Franklin, a former chief of staff to State Rep. Sam Rasoul, is seeking a rematch in 2025. The key to unlocking this district is overwhelming margins amongst the student vote and chipping away at the rural vote.

Franklin is focusing her campaign on key issues that impact working families, mental health resources, public education, healthcare access, and environmental protections. She plans to champion policies that will make Virginia’s economy work for working families, strengthen the mental health system, create affordable pathways to homeownership and fair rental options, improve public school funding, safeguard access to reproductive healthcare, and protect the environment. “This is our home, and I want it to be the best possible place to raise a family, live, and retire,” said Lily Franklin. “I’m running because Southwest Virginians deserve the resources to thrive in all stages of life—from a world-class education for our children to well-paying jobs for working families to dignity and security for our seniors. I’m here to fight for our neighbors and make sure that the needs of Southwest Virginia are not overlooked in Richmond.”

Virginia HoD-57: May Nivar

This district features Richmond suburbs in northwestern Henrico County and eastern Goochland County. MVP Harris won this district by a large 9.4 points in the 2024 election. The incumbent is Rep. David Owen, a Republican who narrowly won the district 50.8% to 48.8% in 2023. How did such a district fail to flip to the Democratic Party despite the Presidential margin? Our 2023 candidate was tainted with a sex scandal which I will not rehash here. Our candidate in 2025 is May Nivar, a community outreach lead for Altria. With a clean candidate, this district should flip.

May Nivar announced Monday that she is running for the Democratic nomination in a competitive Henrico House of Delegates district next year. She is seeking the nomination in HD-57, where Del. David Owen, R-Henrico, is the incumbent. Owen won the seat last November when he defeated Susanna Gibson by two points. “As a mother of two daughters, I feel a deep responsibility to safeguard their future,” Nivar said in her announcement. “We’re at risk of losing many freedoms, particularly the ability to make decisions about our own bodies. I’m running to protect our hard-fought rights and ensure all women have access to abortion care, contraception, and IVF.” Nivar served on former Gov. Terry McAuliffe’s Asian Advisory Board and works at Altria.

Virginia HoD-73: Leslie Mehta

This district contains portions of Chesterfield County in the Richmond suburbs. MVP Harris won this district by 1.1 points in 2024. The incumbent is Rep. Mark Earley, a Republican who won his 2023 election by a comfortable 54.4% to 45.4%. This race won’t be as easy for him in 2024, as civil rights attorney Leslie Mehta is running. She was also the 2024 nominee for Virginia’s 1st Congressional district so she has some political experience. Rep. Earley is a party-line legislator who has been deemed “ineffective” by the challenger.

After losing to Rep. Rob Wittman, R-VA01, in 2024, Leslie Mehta announced Wednesday that she is running for the House of Delegates. She is running in Chesterfield’s HD-73, where the Republican incumbent, Del. Mark Earley, was first elected in 2023. “Every Virginian deserves access to quality, affordable healthcare, well-paying jobs and reasonable prices, and leaders who will put people over partisan politics,” Mehta said in her announcement Wednesday. She attacked Earley, calling him an ineffective legislator. “The incumbent, on the other hand, is so extreme and partisan he has not passed a single bill, not accomplished anything to help his constituents,” she said. “He is completely ineffective, dead last for effectiveness.” While being in the minority party for the entirety of his first term in office, Earley has not had any success in passing legislation. He filed 15 bills during the current session, but none of them were advanced out of the House. Seven of his bills did not even receive a hearing. Only one of his bills in 2024 advanced out of the House last year, but it died in the Senate.

Virginia HoD-75: Lindsey Dougherty

This district takes in the city of Hopewell, as well as portions of Chesterfield and Prince George’s County in the Richmond suburbs. MVP Harris won this district by 6.6 points in 2024 which was a substantial improvement. The incumbent is Rep. Carrie Coyner, a Republican who won 52.8% to 47.0% in 2023. Challenging her is community advocate Lindsey Dougherty. She also ran for a similar district in 2019.

Lindsey Dougherty announced that she is running for the Democratic nomination in HD-75 to run against Republican Del. Carrie Coyner. This sets up a potential rematch of a race from 2019 when Dougherty ran against Coyner and lost by 10 points in a district that was drawn more favorably for Republicans. “I know firsthand the challenges that so many Virginia families face, because I’ve faced them too—stretching every paycheck, battling the endless red tape of our healthcare system, and fighting for the important educational resources our children deserve,” Dougherty said in her announcement Tuesday. “I’m running because working families need a representative that will listen and act for them, not someone who will interject themselves in private and personal medical decisions and basic constituent healthcare rights.”

Virginia HoD-82: Kimberly Pope Adams

This district covers the city of Petersburg, as well as rural Prince George’s, Surry, and Dinwiddie Counties southeast of Richmond. MVP Harris won this district by 4.2 points in 2024. The incumbent is Rep. Kim Taylor, a Republican who won the closest race of 2023 by 53 votes. The challenger from 2023 is back! Kimberly Pope Adams is an auditor who hopes that a more favorable environment will propel her to victory.

Kimberly Pope Adams is back, and this time, she is bringing some top Virginia Democrats with her. Adams, who lost last year’s 82nd House of Delegates District election by 53 votes following a recount, said Tuesday she will make another run for the seat in 2025. Adams comes into the race with key endorsements from Virginia House Speaker Don Scott, D-Portsmouth, and presumptive Democratic gubernatorial nominee Abigail Spanberger. It also sets up a potential repeat of one of the most expensive House campaigns in three decades.

Now I’m not giving ratings for any of the races because I don’t know Virginia politics all that well. What I do know is that each of these races should in theory be decisive even if the Democrats don’t win all of them.

Next week, I’ll look at seven races in the Hampton Roads region of Virginia.

[END]
---
[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/9/14/2340074/-Virginia-2025-Election-Richmond-Area-the-Jackpot-Region-for-Expanding-Our-Majority?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

Published and (C) by Daily Kos
Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified.

via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds:
gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/