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Virginia special election is warning sign for Republicans [1]
['Daily Kos Staff']
Date: 2025-09-10
Democrats on Tuesday romped their way to victory in a special election for Virginia's 11th Congressional District, with Rep.-elect James Walkinshaw defeating his Republican opponent by a whopping 50-point margin.
Walkinshaw's 74.9% to 25.1% victory over Republican Stewart Whitson is a massive overperformance from the 34.3% margin former Vice President Kamala Harris garnered in this seat in November, according to data from the Downballot.
And that large victory is a warning sign for Republicans—both for the 2026 midterms but more imminently the upcoming gubernatorial election in Virginia in November.
The fact that Democrats are wildly overperforming their 2024 margins in the state—which Harris won—is a sign the GOP will struggle in the gubernatorial election.
Democratic gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger
Polling already shows that Democratic gubernatorial nominee Abigail Spanberger has a commanding lead over her opponent, bigoted Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears. A survey released Tuesday showed Spanberger leading Earle-Sears by 9 points.
Virginia is a particularly perilous state for Republicans, as residents there have been disproportionately impacted by President Donald Trump's massive Department of Government Efficiency cuts to the federal workforce.
Indeed, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that Virginia's unemployment rate jumped from 2.8% in July 2024 to 3.6% in July 2025. Never fear, however. Outgoing GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin has steered highly educated out-of-work Virginians to jobs boards with listings for warehouse stocker and barista jobs.
In his victory address, Walkinshaw said that his victory is a message to Republicans.
"Thanks to you, we dealt a major blow to Donald Trump. This is the first of a series of victories for Democrats: together we’ll elect Abigail Spanberger Governor this November, and take back Congress in 2026," Walkinshaw said in a victory message Tuesday night.
It’s unclear when Walkinshaw will be sworn in. His election fills the vacancy left by the -Rep. Gerry Connolly, who died of cancer in May at the age of 75. Once Walkinshaw is sworn in, Democrats will narrow the GOP’s majority to just two seats.
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