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Final (full) New Jersey Canvass [1]
['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']
Date: 2025-09-04
Last weekend was Labor Day weekend, the traditional end of our Benchmark Canvass. Hope Springs from Field PAC’s [dated website] grassroots volunteers chose to canvass in only 3 states during the holiday: New Jersey and Virginia, where we’ve been building towards the statewide elections in November, and Texas, where new maps are now in force.
And volunteers will revert to their candidate’s or Coordinated Campaign’s canvassing in all but 3 locations in New Jersey and Virginia going forward this year. Some of the volunteers had already done so (and a few, that i know of, have attempted to do both!). But we will go deeper into the year in states like Florida, Ohio and Texas — where Rigged-Districting is trying to keep MAGA in power in the U.S. House.
The primary reason we are in New Jersey is because of the 2025 Governor’s election, which Republicans believe “Ciattarelli is well positioned to win this year, in part because of dissatisfaction with the leadership of Murphy, who has been in office eight years and is term-limited.” And although we have found varying weakness for Democratic Governor Phil Murphy at the doors, polls taken this month show Mikie Sherrill leading Republican Jack Ciattarelli outside the margin of error. Significantly, Sherrill was polling above 50%.
New Jersey and Virginia are considered harbinger elections, setting the stage for the midterm elections next year. So while both states are considered Leaning Democratic right now, we understand the importance of electing Democrats to these governorships and state legislatures.
New Jersey was a lot closer in the presidential election than Democrats hoped for. President felon made substantial gains among young and Latino voters which we think can be reversed, especially given the treatment of Trump’s brutal deportation targets.
At this point, we are focused on NJ-07 and NJ-02. NJ-07 is Thomas Kean’s seat and has been targeted by the DCCC. The Cook PVI rating for this race is EVEN. The Cook PVI for NJ-02 is R+5. It’s a big fat red, so why are we here?
Here’s the thing: New Jersey Democrats have undergone what you might call a political awakening (or what one paper called “a series of political earthquakes”). Before he was indicted, South Jersey political boss George Norcross had been a dominant figure in making sure Democrats got elected in this area.
Last Saturday, 511 volunteers knocked on 37,149 doors. They talked to 3,009 voters and had in-depth conversations with 1,913 of them, respectively, guided by our Issues Questionnaire.
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