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The US Population Could Shrink in 2025, For the First Time Ever [1]
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Date: 2025-09-03
The population of the US was destined to start shrinking sometime in the 2030’s or 2040’s at the earliest, according to some projections, and others projected not until the second half of the century. But Trump in just 8 months has likely accelerated that by some ten years or more. And in all probability the damage is going to be irreversible. The image of the US in potential immigrants’ eyes is likely damaged forever.
The US Population Could Shrink in 2025, For the First Time Ever
The United States is on the precipice of a historic, if dubious, achievement. If current trends hold, 2025 could be the first year on record in which the US population actually shrinks. The math is straightforward. Population growth has two sources: natural increase (births minus deaths) and net immigration (arrivals minus departures). Last year, births outnumbered deaths by 519,000 people. That means any decline in net immigration in excess of half a million could push the U.S. into population decline. A recent analysis of Census data by the Pew Research Center found that between January and June, the US foreign-born population fell for the first time in decades by more than one million. While some economists have questioned the report, a separate analysis by the American Enterprise Institute predicted that net migration in 2025 could be as low as negative 525,000. In either case, annual population growth this year could easily turn negative.
As noted in the article, the economic ramifications of this are immense. With a declining population, consumption will decline, investment will decline because fewer companies will want to invest in a declining market, and so on.
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