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Who Won the US-EU Trade Deal? [1]
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Date: 2025-07-30
By many reports, it would seem that the Witless F***king Cocksplat (WFC) came out ahead in the trade deal he made with EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen this weekend, taking time out from his taxpayer-funded trip promoting his golf courses in Scotland. Certainly the WFC himself thinks so:
"I think it's the biggest deal ever made," President Donald Trump said following a meeting with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Sunday afternoon.
Forbes also praised him: Trump scores another big trade deal after securing promise of massive investment, but China will be less willing to cave, analyst says.
Von der Leyen tried to put the best face on it:
Today with this deal, we are creating more predictability for our businesses. In these turbulent times, this is necessary for our companies to be able to plan and invest. We are ensuring immediate tariff relief. This will have a clear impact on the bottom lines of our companies. And with this deal, we are securing access to our largest export market. At the same time, we will give better access for American products in our market.
Plus the obligatory tongue bath:
Finally, I want to thank President Trump personally for his personal commitment and his leadership to achieve this breakthrough. He is a tough negotiator, but he is also a dealmaker.
Bloomberg (via Political Wire) offers a more somber view: U.S. Trade Deal Stirs E.U. Soul-Searching Over Lost Clout:
European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen had to wait until the US president had finished his round [of golf] for the day before she got her chance to discuss the transatlantic trade relationship.” “But the terms of that deal will mean a significant hit to European companies —- the EU accepted a tripling of tariffs to 15% on most exports to the US and will keep its own levies on imports from the world’s biggest economy to 1% or less.”
President Emmanuel Macron of France was openly unhappy: France's Macron says EU-US trade deal 'not the end of it'
As if this weren’t confusing enough, Paul Krugman — for whom I have a HUGE respect in these matters — insists that it was the Cocksplat himself who got played: Fossil Fool: How Europe took Trump for a ride. While he admits that the optics look bad, he argues that Europe gave away nothing of substance.
Like many U.S. institutions, the European Union has abysmally failed the Trump test. The EU is an economic superpower and could have retaliated effectively against Trump’s illegal tariffs — illegal under both U.S. and international law. Instead, Europe did nothing and even made some apparent concessions. But notice my wording: apparent concessions. The optics of the Trump-EU deal were humiliating, and optics matter. If you examine the substance, however, it starts to look as if Europe played Trump for a fool. Specifically, a fossil fool.
He goes on to explain about those pledges the EU made:
European governments aren’t like China, which can tell companies where to put their money. And the European Commission, which made the trade deal, isn’t even a government — it can negotiate tariffs but otherwise has little power. . . . So what the EU actually promised on investment was nothing, Nichts, rien.
They can “urge” private companies to invest, but have no way to force them to. And from this Politico report that Krugman quotes from — EU admits it can’t guarantee $600B promise to Trump — it sounds like aren’t even going to try very hard.
There was also a specific pledge to increase fossil fuel exports from the US to the EU. But Krugman explains that this is not going to happen; Europe is committed to those windmills that the Cocksplat hates, the commission can’t order the private sector to buy oil and gas, and in any case their capacity to handle oil and gas is already at its limit.
Trump may not notice, given his famously tiny . . . uh, attention span.
And if the issue does come up, if there’s one thing officials at the European Commission are really good at — maybe better than anyone else on earth — it’s bureaucratic delay and obfuscation. Maybe at some point big, strong European men with tears in their eyes will meet with Trump and say, “Sir, we have a temporary hangup over clause #14159 of the 1986 Single European Act. But we’ll get it cleared up any day now.” Bottom line: Whatever Trump may think, Europe is not going to provide a big boost to U.S. fossil fuel production. He won’t like that, if anyone tells him. But the rest of us should be glad.
So I’m confused: It kind of looks like Europe won on substance though not on style. And if that’s the case, they won’t be so foolish as to admit it, of course. If they’re counting on Trump not noticing that the deal isn’t going anywhere, that is a decent possibility, but still risky since the Cocksplat hates being shown to be a fool worse than almost anything.
And with all respect to Professor Krugman, Europe is still going to have to swallow a 15% tariff on most of its goods. Von der Leyen spelled it out:
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