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Why the Texas gerrymandering scheme probably won't help the GOP next year. [1]

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Date: 2025-07-29

In an act of desperation, and in a blatant effort to rig the 2026 midterms for the Orange Dude's cult members in the House of Representatives, Governor Greg Abbott and his cronies in the Texas State Legislature are rushing to redraw their congressional maps to try to make as many of their state's 38 House districts red as possible. Aside from the fact that this scheme is bound to backfire by creating more competitive districts which could ultimately benefit Democrats, it is also likely that, when you look at House elections on a much more grand scale, this effort to cheat and steal is not going to give the GOP the edge that they are hoping for.

I decided to investigate this matter just a little more and dig into the numbers to explain why this is the case. Remember, the numbers do not lie.

MIDTERM ELECTIONS, HISTORICALLY SPEAKING

First off, let's go ahead and just paint a basic picture here, which just shows a more general idea and is not meant to be solid proof. This is not necessarily a reliable model since it does not address actual voting margins, but I will still use it. Let's look at the last ten cycles where the party opposite the one in the White House picked up House seats during the midterm elections. This should be a pretty good sample.

YEAR PRESIDENT (PARTY) HOUSE SEATS GAINED 1978 Jimmy Carter (D) Republicans +15 1982 Ronald Reagan (R) Democrats +26 1986 Ronald Reagan (R) Democrats +5 1990 George H.W. Bush (R) Democrats +7 1994 Bill Clinton (D) Republicans +54 2006 George W. Bush (R) Democrats +31 2010 Barack Obama (D) Republicans +63 2014 Barack Obama (D) Republicans +13 2018 Donald Trump (R) Democrats +41 2022 Joseph Biden (D) Republicans +9

Based on these numbers alone, this means that in the last half-century, the opposing party picked up an average of (15 + 26 + 5 + 7 + 54 + 31 + 63 + 13 + 41 + 9)/10 = 26.4 or about 26-27 House seats during a midterm election that worked out in their favor.

Now, there is talk about Ohio going along with the game and redrawing their maps along with Texas, so I will take them into account as well. It is probably next to (if not right at) impossible for them to do this, but let's assume for the moment that Texas and Ohio somehow rig their maps so that they successfully turn all of their 38 House seats and 15 House seats red respectively. Currently, Texas has 13 seats held by Democrats while Ohio has 5; all of their remaining ones are red. So, allegedly, this would result in an 18-seat gain for the GOP with the two new state maps. At the same time, team blue can be expected to lose a handful of seats in the midterms, so I will be a bit generous and say that we lose 5. Then, using the average seat gain of 26-27 from above, this means we can expect

(26 or 27) - 18 - 5 = 3 or 4

seats at a bare minimum to flip blue. This would change the current House makeup from R220-D215 to either R217-D218 or R216-D219, still giving Democrats at least a one-seat or three-seat majority.

THE 435 INDIVIDUAL DISTRICTS

This scenario, which is the more credible of the two, paints an even bleaker picture for the GOP. For this one, I will take into account the 435 House districts themselves and the election results for each one. I will also use the current results of this year's ongoing special elections.

According to The Downballot, Democrats are enjoying a +15.4% average swing in their direction for the 2025 special elections.1 Assuming this figure continues to carry over into next year, I then consulted The Downballot's calculations of presidential election results by congressional district, which lists the election results of all 435 House seats for last year.2 I specifically noted the red ones that Number 47 won and by what margin. (As an aside, I want to point out that not all House districts that he won went to Republicans and not all districts that Kamala Harris won went to Democrats. However, when you look at the margins of those 16 districts, they are very slim.3 So, this should not make a significant difference in the potential outcome, if at all.) When looking at all Republican-held seats excluding the ones from Texas and Ohio, I identified and tallied 52 Republican districts among the remaining 48 states that the Orange Dude won by margins of 15.4% or less. This means that, if this average percentage swing holds, there are as many as 52 total seats, possibly more, at risk of flipping blue when the Texas and Ohio seats are omitted. Still pretending that those 18 Texas and Ohio seats turn red, and also factoring in the 5 blue seats assumed to flip red, this means that Democrats could still gain

52 - 18 - 5 = 29

seats or more in the House during next year's midterms. Also, this is beside the point, but that +15.4% advantage may increase as time goes on. Since Number 47 is underwater in the polls on everything from inflation to immigration and continues to sink, and the Epstein files will almost certainly be damning, that margin boost is bound to happen. This could put even more red districts across the nation in jeopardy.

CONCLUSION

Either way, it is leaning towards a win-win situation for team blue in the House, despite the rigging efforts of Texas (and potentially Ohio).

Also, it should be worth noting that in the last 10 out of 12 midterm cycles, the opposing party ended up winning back House seats, which, generally speaking, gives Democrats a 10/12 = 83.33% chance of gaining seats next year, and it will most likely be enough to help them recapture a House majority.

If you ask me, I think we are still going to be in pretty decent shape.

NOTES

1. "The Downballot's special elections Big Board for the 2025-26 cycle," The Downballot, retrieved from Google Docs, https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JGk1r1VXnxBrAIVHz1C5HTB5jxCO6Zw4QNPivdhyWHw/edit?pli=1&gid=415249345#gid=415249345.

2. "The Downballot's calculations of presidential election results by congressional district, sponsored by Grassroots Analytics," The Downballot, April 23, 2025, https://www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downballots-calculations-of-presidential.

3. David Nir and Jeff Singer, "It's here: The Downballot's 2024 presidential results for all 435 House districts," The Downballot, April 24, 2025, https://www.the-downballot.com/p/its-here-the-downballots-2024-presidential.

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