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Dealbreaker: How An American President Created the Current Iran Nuclear Crisis [1]

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Date: 2025-07-25

In the early morning hours of June 22, 2025 seven American B2 bombers flew the second longest bombing mission on record to strike two key centers of Iran’s nuclear program. Both centers were deep underground to place them beyond the reach of all but the 30,000 pound GBU-57 bombs carried by the B2s. At the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, six of the B2s dropped twelve of the massive bombs on the ventilation shafts for the deeply buried complex. After traveling between ten and fifteen miles from their drop points, the GBU-57 bombs all fell within a devastating seven feet of their targets. One of the B2s dropped two GBU-57s on deeply buried portions of the Natanz Nuclear Complex with similar accuracy. The US stealth aircraft were not detected, engaged, or fired on. Hours earlier, a US submarine launched 24 Tomahawk cruise missiles targeted a on third vital site: the Isfahan Nuclear Technology/Research Center. These detonated across the complex at about the same time as the B2s hit their targets.

What happened is news worthy but in this case it distracts from more important questions. Why was the raid necessary? Perhaps even more importantly, what set in motion the events that would lead to what President Trump has claimed as one of the most effective single military actions in modern history? When was America and the world put on the path that led to the crisis that seemed to require US military action? Many crises have their origins shrouded and difficult to determine. This crisis is different. The event and the date are well documented. We know the fuse leading directly to this crisis was lit 2602 days earlier on May 8, 2018 when President Trump withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

It’s important to have a clear understanding of what America and others hoped to gain from the JCPOA to put Trump’s action in proper context. While the agreement was complex, from the perspective of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (United States, China, France, Russia, and the United Kingdom), and Germany, the agreement was intended to deliver three bottom-line results:

Prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. Ensure that credible inspections and monitoring were in place and working. Increase the time it would take for Iran to build a nuclear weapon.

In 2018, the JCPOA was delivering on its three key objectives. A comparison between how dangerous the situation was before the JCPOA was signed in July of 2015 and the results it actually delivered in terms of four key indicators clarifies the magnitude of its success.

Key Indicator Situation in June 2015 Situation in January 2016 when the JCPOA was certified by the IAEA Uranium stockpile Estimated at 10,000 KG Reduced by 97% to 300 KG Enrichment level A portion of Iran’s uranium stockpile had been enriched to 20%. Enrichment limited to the level needed for civilian research (3.67%) IAEA Inspections Limited access and significant difficulties conducting inspections Effectively unrestricted access for inspections along with 24/7 monitoring Breakout time needed to build a nuclear bomb Iran could enrich to weapons grade (above 90%) and construct a weapon without detection in two months Extended to over 12 months with important controls in place including enrichment limitations, inspections, and monitoring.

Given these results, there must be compelling reasons behind the President’s decision to withdraw from the JCPOA. Trump provided five reasons to justify his action:

The JCPOA failed to protect America’s national security interests. The agreement allowed Iran to continue enriching uranium. There were sunset provisions allowing Iran to restart its ballistic missile and nuclear programs. Iran had violated the terms of the JCPOA. The JCPOA ended sanctions, released $100 billion frozen during sanctions, and allowed continued funding of terrorist organizations.

In addition to withdrawing from the agreement, he took steps to implement what he described as a “maximum pressure” campaign to isolate Iran, deny them any path to a nuclear weapon, terminate their missile program, and end Iran’s funding of terrorist organizations.

Taken at face value, his reasoning and response might sound compelling, even presidential. However, the facts show a decision based on misrepresentation of the success and actual timelines of the JCPOA. The US Department of State’s JCPOA summary document (https://2009-2017.state.gov/documents/organization/245317.pdf?safe=1) observes “Iran has stated that if sanctions are reinstated in whole or in part, Iran will treat that as grounds to cease performing its commitments under this JCPOA in whole or in part.” The President and his Administration had every reason to believe that his actions would result in the failure of the JCPOA. More disturbing still, Trump’s decision shows a reckless disregard for the consequences of its failure.

It is impossible to argue that the JCPOA was a perfect agreement. It did not address every international issue that Iran posed. However, it was delivering on its three key objectives. The sunset provisions cited by Trump were the most troubling. Taken as a whole, these provisions would eventually allow Iran to restart its military nuclear program, including enrichment to weapons-grade uranium, and ultimately end inspections and monitoring. However, in 2018, expiration of the limitations on ballistic missiles and drones was five years away, and the more troubling provisions that could lead to a nuclear weapon were thirteen years away, taking effect in 2031 or later, giving time to at least attempt good-faith negotiations. Withdrawing from the agreement was not leadership; it was another tragic example of President Trump’s recklessness and lack of judgement.

Perhaps the author of “The Art of the Deal” thought he could force an agreement more to his liking on all parties. He would be proved disastrously wrong. For all the JCPOA’s failings and limitations, none of these, especially when balanced against the objective results it delivered and would have continued to deliver for years, justified withdrawal. The situation called for pragmatic engagement and negotiation, not Trump’s headline-grabbing bluster.

Recent events clearly show that President Trump’s withdrawal from the JCPOA and “maximum pressure” campaign were monumental failures that did not end Iran’s nuclear ambitions or program. Far from it, Trump’s actions served to supercharge Iran’s resolve and efforts to acquire nuclear weapons. We can return to the same four key indicators to see the magnitude of the crisis that he created. In the years following the May 2018 withdrawal, IAEA inspections and monitoring largely ended, nearly blinding the United States, other parties to the JCPOA to Iran’s actions.

What information that became available over the last year led to the realization that Iran had expanded its uranium stockpile over 15 fold to roughly 5,000 KG, enhanced a portion of their stockpile to 20%, and over 400 KG to 60%. The material enriched to 60% is critical because, according to the IAEA, it represents enough uranium that could be quickly enriched to weapons grade, allowing the construction of five to ten weapons. While Iran cannot claim complete innocence, it is President Trump who created this crisis. In 2018, he inherited a situation in which Iran was roughly a year from building nuclear weapons. His withdrawal led to the failure of the JCPOA and ultimately to an imminent threat to Israel, the Middle East, America, Europe, and the world by 2025 — the real possibility of Iran building nuclear weapons in as little as two weeks.

It has been suggested that President Biden’s failure to pick up the pieces and reach a new agreement is the real failure and that it is Biden who is responsible for our current crisis. A reasonable review of efforts during the Biden Administration shows otherwise. Despite concerted good-faith efforts by Biden’s negotiators, Iran had learned a bitter lesson from Trump’s withdrawal from the JCPOA - they could not trust America to stand by its agreements. When conservative Ebrahim Raisi won the Iranian Presidential election in 2021, any remaining hope the Biden Administration might have had for a new agreement vanished. However, it was the willful destruction of trust in America as a reliable and fair superpower by Trump and the punitive measures he put in place, not Raisi’s election or Biden’s inability to do what proved impossible, that ultimately doomed efforts to reach a new agreement.

The coordinated strikes executed on June 22, 2025, by American Air and Naval forces inflicted significant damage on key portions of Iran’s nuclear program. There is little doubt that some aspects of Iran’s nuclear program have been set back years. However, Iran has not abandoned its goal of acquiring nuclear weapons. The location of hundreds of kilograms of 60% enriched uranium is unknown, presenting the possibility of Iran building a handful of nuclear bombs. The State Department has warned Americans traveling internationally to be on guard. DHS has declared a heightened threat of cyber attacks on critical infrastructure and warned of an increased risk of terrorist attacks. The 2015 JCPOA showed the importance of the parties negotiating from interlocking interests and a willingness for shared success. It’s not at all clear that the various interests, possible parties, and most especially a willingness for joint solutions, all essential for successful negotiations, are understood or even exist at this time.

In 2018, CNN reported that roughly 30% Americans supported withdrawal and over 60% did not. Polling by the Pew Research Center that same year found that a majority of Americans (52%) were not confident of the President’s ability to handle the relationship with Iran. Their skepticism proved to be well founded. Trump’s catastrophic decision led to a truly grave crisis that required American military action costing over $300 million, placed the world closer to another country with nuclear arms, and decisively undermined America’s reputation around the world. June 22 was significant but not the end of the crisis. The uncertain path forward is overshadowed by President Trump’s ill-conceived decision to abandon diplomacy and America’s responsibilities. Successful resolution of the current crisis will require stable, responsible, and fair leadership. Unfortunately, virtually all of the President’s actions since 2018 and especially his track record to date negotiating trade deals suggest that it is far from likely that he will be able to provide, or even allow, the mature, creative, and responsible leadership needed to finally put out the fuse he lit.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/7/25/2335198/-Dealbreaker-How-An-American-President-Created-the-Current-Iran-Nuclear-Crisis?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=more_community&pm_medium=web

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