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Michigan Canvass Report: There's a lot going on in Michigan [1]
['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']
Date: 2025-07-24
We are now canvassing in the 17 Hope Springs from Field PAC [dated website] target states: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia & Wisconsin. We are fairly stretched for an all-volunteer outfit.
2026 Gubernatorial Map
Michigan and Georgia are the only two states judged by political prognosticators to be competitive in both their Senate and Governors elections this year. After Sen. Gary Peters declined to run for re-election, this made our canvassing in Michigan even more critical but Michigan weighs heavily in our efforts to take back the House, as well!
As you may remember, we focus our canvassing in competitive or even pinkish Congressional Districts, as they are areas where local Democratic party orgs are less likely to be strong enough to engage in this type of voter contact on their own. There are a number of reasons for this, but there are two that have repeatedly come to our attention: first of all, voter attitudes towards the Democratic Party have plunged in recent years and this doesn’t exactly make Democrats inclined to go out and participate in their local organizations (although we should!) and, secondly, many people who are interested find their local party orgs to be, well, less than welcoming. We really need to be more determined to blast through the front gates here, because they aren’t going to get better without us. Seriously. This is basically true everywhere. We literally have to save ourselves from the old guard, many (most?) of whom have been around from even before Obama.</rant>
In the Senate race, Democrats have a deep bench of candidates. Republicans have apparently decided on Mike Rogers, who lost to Eliza Slotkins in 2024 after Rep. Bill Huizenga said Wednesday that he would not run for the state’s open Senate seat next year. Republicans consider the Michigan seat as their best pickup opportunity next year. The top contenders for the Democratic nomination are Rep. Haley Stevens and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow. Also running are former speaker of the Michigan House, state Rep. Joe Tate, and Abdul El-Sayed, the former Wayne County health director.
Yesterday’s announcement by Huizenga didn’t include “whether he planned to run again in his West Michigan district, which is one of 35 House seats Democrats are targeting nationally.”
May 27 (release date) Poll
Our canvassing targets in Michigan have been guided by the focus on retaking the House in these midterms. Last cycle, we canvassed in MI-3, MI-4, MI-7, MI-8 & MI-10. This year, with the knowledge of that (2024) election in hind sight, Democrats are going after GOP seats in MI-4, MI-7 & MI-10. MI-10 is now an open seat, since the incumbent is now running for governor. All three of the targeted seats currently have Republican incumbents but, as you can see from the map below, MI-4 is rated as “leans Republican” for this cycle. MI-7 is considered a toss-up seat at the moment, which matches its Cook PVI of EVEN. We are still knocking on doors in MI-3 (Cook PVI: D+1), where Democrat Hillary Scholten is the incumbent, and MI-8, where Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet is the incumbent. Rivet faces her first re-election campaign.
Also of note, last year, our Michigan volunteers were mostly female — which is always interesting to think about in terms of canvassing. But that has been less true this year. It has been, dare i say it, more normal (at least in my experience).
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[1] Url:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/7/24/2334921/-Michigan-Canvass-Report-There-s-a-lot-going-on-in-Michigan?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=latest_community&pm_medium=web
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