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This upcoming House special election could predict a 2026 blue wave [1]
['Daily Kos Staff']
Date: 2025-07-21
President Donald Trump carried Green's seat by 22 points in 2024, making it a safe GOP district in a normal year.
Yet in a wave, Democrats could win here with the right candidate—an outcome that would send shockwaves through Congress that could both spook other Republican members into retiring and convince strong Democratic recruits to jump into other challenging House districts. And that would set Democrats up for even more success in the 2026 elections.
In fact, a pair of U.S. House special elections in Florida already show that this seat could be vulnerable to a Democratic pick up. In those races, Republicans Jimmy Patronis and Randy Fine underperformed Trump's margin from just a few months earlier—Fine by 16 points, and Patronis by a whopping 23 points. If Green's district swings left as much as those special elections in Florida did, Democrats would pick off this seat.
Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis
Even more troubling for Republicans is that those two special elections in Florida were held at a time when Trump's approval rating was barely under water, with 50% disapproving and 48% approving, according to The New York Times average. Today, Trump is nearly 10 points underwater, with voters disapproving of his handling of everything from immigration to inflation—making this seat even more vulnerable for the GOP.
What's more, a survey released Sunday from the pollster Atlas Intel found Democrats with a 9-point lead on the generic ballot—which measures what party voters want to see in control of Congress. A 9-point generic ballot lead portends a massive Democratic wave that would make seats like Tennessee’s 7th contenders for a pick up.
Green, for his part, has endorsed a successor in former Tennessee Department of General Services Commissioner Matt Van Epps. But he’s facing a primary against a handful of other Republicans, including Montgomery County Commissioner Jason Knight, state Rep. Lee Reeves, and a Jan. 6 insurrectionist Stewart Parks.
On the Democratic side, three state representatives—Aftyn Behn, Vincent Dixie, and Bo Mitchell—have announced bids.
A date has yet to be determined for the seat. But don't sleep on this contest when it's held.
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