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Here's why your hamburger might cost you an arm and a leg [1]
['Daily Kos Staff']
Date: 2025-07-21
First, eggs were breaking the bank. Now it’s beef.
Egg prices surged earlier this year due to a severe avian flu outbreak, but they eventually stabilized as producers restocked and supply chains normalized. However, that reset has not occurred with beef. Instead, prices continue to rise—just in time for peak grilling season—and there’s no relief in sight.
In June, ground beef reached $6.12 a pound, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. That’s nearly a 12% increase since last June, when it was $5.47 a pound. This marks the first time since the Consumer Price Index began tracking the data in the 1980s that ground beef has gone above $6.
But it’s not just ground beef. The price of uncooked steak is also soaring. Last month, it hit $11.49 a pound—an 8% increase from last June, when it was $10.64 a pound.
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What’s worse, it’s not just a seasonal fluctuation. Experts say the worst may still be ahead.
“Beef is way more complicated than eggs,” Michael Swanson, the chief agricultural economist at Wells Fargo, told CNN. “The cattle industry is still the ‘Wild West’ of the protein market, whereas the egg market is more ‘Corporate America’ with its supply and demand management.”
Patrick Montgomery, CEO of KC Cattle Company, told Axios this is “just the tip of the iceberg,” adding, “Prices for beef will continue to be tumultuous for the next two to four years.”
This problem has been years in the making. Droughts, rising costs, shrinking herds, and, more recently, freezes and cuts to various Agriculture Department programs have pushed ranchers out of the industry. U.S. herd sizes are now at their lowest point in decades, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation, a major lobbying group. The number of farms in the U.S. is also on a slow decline, with roughly 1.9 million in 2024—down 8% since 2017—according to the USDA.
Imports have helped fill the gap, especially from Brazil, which now supplies nearly a quarter of all U.S. beef imports. But that supply route is also under threat. President Donald Trump recently ordered for a 50% tariff on Brazilian beef to start on Aug. 1, and according to Reuters, some exporters are reassessing future shipments to the U.S.
Cattle graze on a ranch in Lufkin, Texas, in April 2023.
The U.S. is Brazil’s second-largest beef market, after China. With domestic production declining, these new tariffs could hit hard, especially on ground beef. American meatpackers often rely on lean beef trimmings from countries like Australia, Brazil, and New Zealand to blend with fattier domestic beef and produce hamburger meat. Now Brazil’s lean cuts are set to become much more expensive—or vanish altogether.
U.S. beef importers “will either have to pay the higher cost of Brazilian beef or obtain it from other higher-cost sources,” David Ortega, a food economist at Michigan State University, told Al-Jazeera. “That could lead to higher prices for certain beef products, particularly ground beef and hamburger meat. This comes at a time when the U.S. cattle herd is at the lowest level in many decades, demand for beef is strong, and as a result, beef prices are up.”
Brazil isn’t the only supplier under pressure. Imports from Mexico—another major partner—have been disrupted by an outbreak of the flesh-eating parasite known as the screwworm.
In short, the lean-beef pipeline is shrinking just as demand peaks.
Tyson Foods CEO Donnie King didn’t hold back on a recent earnings call.
“Beef is experiencing the most challenging market conditions we’ve ever seen,” he said.
Even if herd numbers recover, it won’t result in immediate price drops. Climate shocks, shrinking ranch land, trade disruptions, and persistent consumer demand are all converging, making the meat aisle increasingly difficult to afford with each passing month.
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https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/7/21/2334455/-Beef-prices-are-brutal-and-Trump-s-tariffs-won-t-help?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_1&pm_medium=web
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