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Enlist in the information war [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2025-07-21

Aninieli recently posted extracts from a book - A primer on Russian cognitive warfare-- published by the ISW (The Institute for the Study of War -- a US-located think tank) about Russia's use of (mis)information in its attack on Ukraine, NATO, and the West in general. A more recent interview with George Barros, an ISW honcho, went further than the extracts did. He said that much of Russia's battlefield decisions are to enhance their informational goals, especially their claim that a Russian victory in Ukraine is inevitable. (So, Putin would argue, and his fans in the USA do argue, helping arm Ukraine merely postpones the Russian victory and, thus, prolongs the war and its suffering.) Some few American supporters of Ukraine are dedicated enough to go there and enlist in their army. If you lack the skills or that level of dedication but are still a supporter, I suggest enlisting in the information-war aspect of the fight. If Putin believes that aspect is important enough to launch "meat assaults" that gain a hectare of farmland per casualty, it's important enough for you to write a letter to the editor. The military enlistees on our side each contribute only a slight fraction of the total effort that is needed; that doesn't persuade them to not make that effort. Similarly, you, by yourself, are not going to overturn the US mindset. That doesn't excuse you from doing your part. (I'm writing this as though my entire audience was Yank; I know that is not true. Translate this screed into your own situation, which you know better than I can.) ISW deals with war, which is between nations. They talk about what the US and its allies should do to counter Russian propaganda. Even they, though, state that Russia regards American (and European NATO) public opinion as their chief battleground. There, we -- dKos participants -- can do as much as the government can; we may be willing to do much more than the Trump administration is willing to do. A major way of influencing public opinion is writing letters to the editor, (LTEs). If you have another means, that is fine. I'm going to concentrate on this one because (1) it is available to everyone who participates on dKos, (2) it is effective, and (3) I know how to do them. Occasionally, (and how frequently varies from paper to paper) your letter gets published. Then, some of the people who read the paper read the letter. If you and I both write similar LTEs from the same perspective, they won't publish both, but they are more likely to publish one. Almost always, the letter is read by a reporter or editor who covers that beat (whatever beat the paper considers covers the Ukrainian war). Since most journalists want to deal realistically with facts, a factual argument could bend the later coverage a little bit.

For most influence on both the probable journalist-reader and the unlikely subscriber-reader, the tone should be reasonable, and the arguments should be based upon verifiable facts. The facts, indeed, are on our side. The Kremlin has 2 predictions of how their inevitable victory shall come about: (1) The Ukrainian military will suddenly collapse, and the Russian army will sweep through their lines and their country, (2) the creeping, costly gains of the last year will continue until it eats up the entire country. Depending on the story to which you are responding, you point out that they have also made the other claim. If you are responding to a prediction of a sudden victory, then, you can point out one of (1a) The maximum of actual Russian occupation of Ukraine happened in September of 2022, (1b) The intended sweep along the Black Sea from the Dnipro to Transnistria was originally proposed for early 2023 starting from (then Russian occupied) Kherson City. That proposal -- although it wasn't actually performed, was more plausible than the current version which involves a combat crossing of the wide lower Dnipro. (1c) If Russia were actually convinced that the Ukrainian army was close to cracking, they would apply all the ammunition that they could to cracking it. Instead, they waste a mass of explosives on civilian targets. (1d) Putin has been predicting a sudden Russian triumph since the "Special Military Operation" started with a three-day schedule., or(1e) If one of the armies in this war shows signs of imminent collapse, it is the Russian. You don't predict that they will break, but a Ukrainian break looks even less likely.

When you are responding to the prediction of a continuance of the Russian army's present creeping gains until they reach the totality of Ukraine, you can point out: (2a) Before the Russians can occupy the entirety of Ukraine, they have to occupy as much territory as they did in the beginning of September 2022; so far, they do not.(2b) At 100 casualties per km^2 -- which is near to their best ratio -- that would e 41,000,000 casualties for the rest of the land. Even Russia would feel damaged by that. (2c) Those casualties are disabilities as well as deaths; can the Russian government afford economically the support of those disabled persons? Could they afford politically to not support them? (2d) The first 3 years of the war was paid for, in part, by drawing down 2/3 of the sovereign wealth fund. When that runs out, what source will replace it? (2e) The Russian economic system is experiencing a multitude of strains, some from the invasion itself, some exacerbated by the invasions, some exacerbated by sanctions. They can probably keep going for a couple of more years; but a couple of more decades? (2f) A significant fraction of Russian women is considering delaying or deferring pregnancy due to the uncertainties stemming from the war. If that pattern, like the plan for the war, extends for decades, the next generation of women at prime childbearing age will be much smaller, and likely to consider the family size that they grew up around ideal. Russia is already in a demographic crisis. (2g) Russian recruiting has depended on constantly increasing enlistment bonuses. How much larger can it afford for these to go?

I'm going to deal with the style recommendation for LTEs in another place, but I emphasize here that one LTE should use 1 of these themes. That conforms to the expectation for LTEs, and it also depends on others on our side to join the effort.

So, where do you write? Generally, it's any paper (or magazine) which [1[ covers the Ukrainian war, [2] prints the opinions of readers, and [3] has you in its circulation area. The circulation area can be local, regional, or national. Some publications have a circulation confined to a group -- denomination, profession, organization members -- that is other than geographic. I consider the geographic circulation area as national, regional, or local. National papers that regard you in their legitimate readership are The New York Times, the Washington Post, USA Today, and The Wall Street Journal. Before writing a paper, it's worth reading what they say on the website about LTEs.

Most papers announce a limit to how often they will publish a LTE from any one writer. I usually take that as a limit of how often I can send a letter to that paper, but that isn't what they say. You sometimes have to promise them that you don't send a letter with the same idea to another publication, and they all expect that you won't. "Publication" in this sense, includes social media posts. On the other hand, nothing stops you from writing on a different subject to another paper at the same time. These LTEs are intended to persuade. That means that you present facts on objective situations; you don't denigrate opposing people or points of view. As I said earlier, you write on one point -- occasionally on the contradiction involved in an opponent's 2 claims.

There is now a group on Daily Kos, Information War. it is intended to pull together, enable, and celebrate our efforts in the information war. I’m going you write an article a week on my LTE or LTEs of the previous week. I suggest that you comment on that article with your own LTE or LTEs. If you get published, that is worth an article of your own. Let us know of anything which could help others do this work. If you participate in any way, join the group.

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