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Will Democrats win an unlikely Senate seat in Texas? Lone Star MAGAs seem set to give them a chance [1]

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Date: 2025-07-14

Texas has a US Senate race in 2026. In any other era, four-term incumbent John Cornyn would receive his party leader's blessing and head for the general with a following wind in his sails. But this is the age of MAGA. Cornyn is facing a vigorous primary challenge from the state's AG, Ken Paxton. And this has cracked open an unexpected door for the Democrats. There is a small but realistic chance that the Democrats can win this thing if Paxton prevails.

A chance made bigger by Trump’s tariff follies .

Cornyn is doing everything he can to secure the golden ticket — Trump's endorsement. He has been a consistent pro-Trump vote in the Senate. In January, Cornyn stated he intended to "support each of them [Trump's cabinet candidates]." He urged that the Senate confirm all of them without delay. He later claimed pride in having "voted for every single one of the President's Cabinet picks," noting the Senate confirmed 13 nominations within 10 weeks—an unusually fast pace.

His 2026 campaign has also highlighted that he "voted to confirm all of Trump's cabinet nominees, including several controversial picks" as part of his broader alignment with Trump's agenda. The guy is so far up Trump's ass you can't see his feet.

No dice. Trump has not yet endorsed the obsequious toad. Worse, Trump probably sees the ethically and legally challenged AG as a kindred spirit. Worst, primary Polls show that Paxton is eating Cornyn's lunch.

On the surface, it shouldn't matter who the GOP nominee is. The last time Texans elected a Democrat to the US Senate, Reagan was President (1988). Even the loathed Ted Cruz managed to beat the popular Beto O'Rourke in 2018 — a midterm year that saw an electoral shift to the Democrats.

But as reviled as Cruz is, Paxton is worse. He may have a magnetic appeal for the MAGA primary base. But to decent human beings, he is God awful. Should Paxton win the GOP primary, the people who reflexively vote for a candidate with an R after their name may well stay home. And Paxton is a big turn-off to the centrist voter.

Why? Here is a summation of Paxton's legal issues. CLICK HERE for details on his Wiki page

On July 28, 2015, a state grand jury indicted Paxton on two counts of securities fraud (a first-degree felony) and one count of failing to register with state securities regulators (a third-degree felony).

In 2016, the SEC filed a civil enforcement action against Paxton, charging him with violating various provisions of the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 by defrauding the Servergy investors.

In October 2020, seven of Paxton's top aides published a letter to the office's director of human resources, accusing Paxton of improper influence, abuse of office, bribery, and other crimes, and said they had provided information to law enforcement and asked them to investigate.

In May 2022, the State Bar's Commission for Lawyer Discipline sued Paxton in Collin County District Court, asking the court to find that Paxton had acted unethically in seeking to subvert the 2020 presidential election and to impose a sanction ranging from a private reprimand to disbarment.

On May 25, 2023, the Republican-led House General Investigating Committee unanimously recommended that Paxton's impeachment on 20 articles of impeachment.

Paxton has so far managed to dodge almost all consequences for his actions. And he is legally presumed innocent until found guilty. But c'mon. That's a lot of smoke.

In addition, he is a hypocrite. He waves the Bible like he's swatting flies. And he wraps himself in Jesus. However, moral turpitude is his middle name. He has admitted to a years-long adulterous affair in the 2010s. And on July 10, 2025, his wife Angela tweeted that she had "filed for divorce on biblical grounds". Court papers showed that the grounds were another adultery.

Some think that these extra-material excursions will dent his primary lead. I doubt it. Religious conservatives love to vote for "good Christians" who excuse their sins by claiming persecution by evil forces. Paxton played into the "more sinned against than sinning" absurdity with a tweet explaining:

"After facing the pressures of countless political attacks and public scrutiny, Angela and I have decided to start a new chapter in our lives. I could not be any more proud or grateful for the incredible family that God has blessed us with, and I remain committed to supporting our amazing children and grandchildren. I ask for your prayers and privacy at this time.

Commenters noted the chutzpah of a man who sued to get more medical information on women's reproductive health, asking for privacy.

If Republicans select this vile person to be their standard bearer, the Democrats' chances of winning increase from 'probably not' to 'it could happen.' Polls show a generic Democrat leading Paxton by 3% and trailing Cornyn by 7%.

Sober-minded Republicans are concerned. Chris Wilson, a Ted Cruz advisor, said of the possibilities:

"If the goal is to maintain a GOP Senate majority and maximize Trump's down-ballot coattails in Texas, Paxton's nomination is a strategic liability."

In a less cerebral reflection, another senior GOP Senate aide told Axios:

"The problem is nobody with the necessary gravitas seems to be willing to state the obvious: this is shaping up to be a fucking disaster."

In July 2025, talk about a November 2026 election is only speculative. Polls can be wrong. The primary ( date TBD ) will be around a year from now. Cornyn has more money than Paxton — etc., etc., etc.

But, ceteris paribus, the Democrats have to be hoping Paxton beats Cornyn.

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