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Surf's Up! Blue Wave 2026! [1]
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Date: 2025-07-14
History teaches us that the party holding the White House usually sustains losses in the midterm elections. Exceptions to this historical pattern have been rare. The exceptions were 1934, 1962, 1998 and 2002. The common denominator in those election cycles was that we had an incumbent president who had an approval rating in the neighborhood of 60%. In contrast, Trump and MAGA are deeply unpopular. Trump has never been a popular president.
Trump’s low approval ratings and unpopular policies have already spurred a backlash. Democrats are doing very well in the 2025 elections. The Washington Post recently committed journalism and reported on this very important trend. But for this lone, solitary story one would have no idea that this is happening. Is it even legal to report that the Democrats have been winning big since November 2024?
From the Washington Post on June 27:
“Beyond what the historical record suggests, there is an additional warning sign for Trump allies who want to continue single-party GOP rule in Washington: Democrats have made big gains in special elections since Trump took office in January 2025.
Among all special elections this year, Democrats have outperformed Kamala Harris’s vote share in 2024 by 13 percentage points, based on Harris-Trump baselines. That’s the largest shift toward any party in years. In fact, all but four of the 31 special elections have seen movement toward Democrats.
In special elections ahead of the 2018 midterms, Democrats beat Hillary Clinton’s 2016 numbers by six points and preceded a nine-point win in the House popular vote.
When a party consistently outperforms its last presidential outcome in special elections, it usually does well in the next House cycle.”
Another leading indicator of a wave election are retirements. Incumbents occupying swing states or districts facing a wave election tend to retire rather than get beat. Retirements usually make a wave election more likely.
Representative Don Bacon (R-NE) announced his retirement on June 30, 2025. Both Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report have shifted Nebraska CD02 from lean Republican to lean Democratic. This is an excellent pick up opportunity for the Democrats.
During the debate over Trump’s big ugly bill, Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) came out against the deep Medicaid cuts and announced his retirement. Popular former Democratic governor Roy Cooper will most likely toss his hat in the ring. The Cook Political Report changed the North Carolina senate race from lean Republican to toss up.
Behind closed doors on Capitol Hill, there’s real anxiety amongst Republicans over the Medicaid cuts. They know it could come back to hurt them in the midterms. Said one Republican lawmaker: “The Democrats are rooting for us to fuck ourselves on Medicaid.”
In the past, passage of controversial, big bills have triggered political earthquakes that reshaped the map. In 2010, Republican lies about the Affordable Care Act led to a red wave in which the GOP regained control of the House. Trump’s deficit funded tax cuts for the rich and failed attempt to take away insurance from 20 million people led to the Democrats picking up 40 House seats in 2018. It was the Democrats’ best performance in the House since 1974.
Right wing firebrand and former Trump adviser Steve Bannon alleged that the GOP could lose numerous House seats in the 2026 midterms over the Trump administration’s handling of Jeffrey Epstein’s client list. “You’re going to lose 10 percent of the MAGA movement. If we lose 10 percent of the MAGA movement right now, we’re gonna lose 40 seats in ’26,” he said.
At the present time, the Democrats are favorites to take the House, but the Senate has been considered just out of reach. Will the passage of the big ugly bill put the Senate up for grabs?
Without a doubt, Democrats have an uphill battle to win back control the Senate. Nonetheless, even the GOP aligned Wall Street Journal editorial page is of the belief that control of the Senate is in play in 2026. Senator Brian Schatz (D-HI) has posted that the Senate is up for grabs in light of the extremism of MAGA.
The Democrats need to hold their competitive seats in New Hampshire, Michigan, Georgia, Michigan and Minnesota. That’s a likely scenario in light of the negative political environment for the Republicans.
The hard part is that the Democrats will need to at least flip four Republican seats. The Democrats’ best opportunities are in North Carolina and Maine. Susan Collins is up for re-election in Maine, a state that Harris carried by six points. Collins has a miserly 42% approval rating while 51% disapprove.
There are some other plausible targets.
Senator Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) imploded when she insulted her constituents who were concerned about the Medicaid cuts by saying: “We’re all going to die.” She has drawn two top tier Democratic challengers and there are rumors she won’t run for re-election.
Texas is another possibility. Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) is embroiled in a bloody primary battle with Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Former Democratic U.S. House member Colin Allred has entered the race and will be a strong candidate.
Appointed incumbent Jon Husted (R-OH) who replaced J.D. Vance is up. Former Senator Sherrod Brown may jump in the race. Brown is still popular and could pull off the upset in a blue wave environment.
Senator Dan Sullivan (R-AK) voted for the big ugly bill after Murkowski’s corrupt bargain that exempted Alaska from the Medicaid and SNAP cuts. Current Representative Mary Peltola has already won two statewide races in Alaska. She defeated Sarah Palin in 2022 to win her seat.
Nebraska is a long shot but Pete Ricketts is unpopular and independent Dan Osborn is running again. Nebraska Democratic Party chair Jane Kleeb said : “We just think that there is so much anger at what is happening with all of the cuts, in particular in rural communities, that if there was ever an opening to win statewide, [2026] is the year.”
Another problem for the GOP is Trump’s feud with Elon Musk. The former DOGE chief and corporate welfare queen has founded a new third party that will field Congressional candidates in 2026. Musk is the richest man in the world and his big bankroll could make a difference.
The Republicans are worried that Musk’s America Party is likely to peel off more Republicans than Democratic voters in key races. Musk is still popular with Republicans while most Democrats loathe him. Musk-backed, third-party candidates could play spoiler roles and swing close races to Democrats.
Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) warned that Musk could cost Republicans unified control of the White House and Congress, which they used this year to cut taxes for the rich, throw 17 million people off insurance and add $6 trillion to the national debt, among other so-called “accomplishments.”
The only response to this vote for the big ugly bill is to organize so that the Republicans lose their jobs and have to get the shitty health care they voted for.
“I think it’s going to require a little bit less navel-gazing and a little less whining and being in fetal positions. And it’s going to require Democrats to just toughen up. You know, don’t tell me you’re a Democrat, but you’re kind of disappointed right now, so you’re not doing anything. No, now is exactly the time that you get in there and do something.” Former President Obama at a recent fundraiser.
The Democrats are winning big in the 2025 elections. This is the most under reported story in American politics. There is a huge backlash to Trump and MAGA. Nonetheless, the mainstream press is addicted to a “Democrats in disarray” narrative. Despite our divisions, we keep winning elections. We are united against the threat to freedom and democracy posed by Trump and MAG
If you are a Democrat with any ambition of running for office, you should immediately start planning your 2026 campaign. If this disaster continues, it will (unfortunately) be the best political environment for you to run in for the rest of your life. The environment will most likely resemble 1932 when Roosevelt and the Democratic Party won a landslide victory across the board.
The tide is turning. Be confident going forward. Take nothing for granted. Keep working hard. Blue wave 2026!
Blue wave 2026! Let’s f*cking go!
Sources consulted:
https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/nebraska-house/don-bacons-retirement-moves-nebraskas-2nd-district-lean-democrat-0
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5398104-steve-bannon-donald-trump-epstein-files-2026-midterms/
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