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Reality bites: MAGA fractures over Trump's tariff plans - the more they see, the less they like [1]
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Date: 2025-07-13
On Saturday, Trump threatened to impose a 30% tariff on imports from Mexico and the European Union starting on August 1, after weeks of negotiations with the major U.S. trading partners failed to reach a comprehensive trade deal. Just the threat alone is bad politics for him. If, for once, he follows rhetoric with action, he will shed even more Republican support.
Why? Because even his own voters don't like his trade policies.
During the 2024 campaign, Trump told the base that tariffs were a panacea for all their economic ills. The base thought that sounded swell. They, along with independents and some traditionally Democratic voters, went to the polls eager to see a trade tax enacted. As the inauguration approached, these Trump voters, old and new, shivered in anticipation. But like so many plans that soared in the abstract, the tariff strategy faltered in reality.
The cheering crowds stilled as Trump kept fumbling the ball and hitting unforced errors. They watched Trump's on-again, off-again gyrations and wondered if there was actually a plan. Or if his vacillation was proof that a hormonal, unstable, and demented mind was spiralling. The man whose chief political talent was name-calling was himself labelled 'TACO'. And the slur stuck as no dig had stuck before.
Trump's erratic trade tax policy has not done the GOP any favors in the run-up to the 2026 midterms. Politico and Public First conducted a poll of 2024 Trump voters. Politico reported the results thus:
President Donald Trump's disruptive trade policies are threatening to alienate a significant tranche of his own voters, a major red flag for Republicans going into 2026. A new POLITICO-Public First poll conducted last month found between a quarter and nearly half of people who voted for Trump in 2024 have doubts about various elements of his tariff policies, especially around his approach to China.
Unsurprisingly, Democrats are far more likely to say Trump has no clue. However, an incumbent President doing what he says he was going to do should have almost universal support from his own party. Trump doesn't — not even close.
The report reveals profound disappointment with the China piece of the strategy. Half of them will not say that Trump's China tariffs will benefit American companies.
Just half of Trump voters surveyed believe his tariffs on the world's second-largest economy would benefit American companies — a core premise of the president's protectionist trade agenda.
Trump voters also take a mixed view on Trump's unchecked, imperialist presidency. They are split over whether Trump should have the authority to design and execute America's trade policy without Congressional approval.
They're also evenly divided on whether Trump should have the ability to unilaterally impose tariffs on other countries in the first place, with 45 percent saying he should and 44 percent saying he should get approval from Congress.
If you add 44% of Republicans to the majority of independents and almost all Democrats, opposition to Trump's dictatorial approach is overwhelming.
MAGA isn't going away — but it is fracturing. While almost half are willing to slit their wrists to support inflationary tariffs on China, a lot of them are not so self-abusive. The report reveals:
Just under half of Trump voters, 46 percent, said they support tariffs on China "even if it increases prices at home." One-third of his voters, 32 percent, only support the tariffs if it doesn't increase prices, while 9 percent said they oppose tariffs on China and 13 percent weren't sure.
I wonder how many of the 46% will stick to their "I don't care if it hurts" philosophy when prices start to rise. It's easy to be tough when you haven't yet felt the pain.
Trump voters are not the best informed. Many may not understand that, due to Trump's serial flip-flops, the American consumer has so far been spared the inflationary effects of his tariff policies. However, if he ever stops chickening out and actually enforces his tariffs (aka consumer taxes), the consequent inflation may open some eyes.
No doubt he will blame the Democrats. However, that's a stretch as Republicans control everything except public opinion. And he campaigned as the one person who could, and would, make everything great — on day one.
The deadenders won't care. They are terminally self-deluded. But the voters new to the Trump party — the ones who believed his promises of omnipotent and immediate success — are realizing the book has not lived up to its cover.
In politics, it is crucial to keep your base engaged, enthusiastic, and heading to the polls. But ultimately, the contest is won in the center. Trump's base is no longer so passionate. And he is losing voters in the middle.
Trump is dealing Democratic candidates high cards. It's up to them to play them right.
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