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Gerrymandering Texas -- Can Democrats Win a GOP Senate Seat Here? [1]
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Date: 2025-07-11
Texas is the biggest (and most populated) state where Hope Springs from Field PAC [dated website] volunteers knock on doors. It’s no surprise when it is the state with the highest volunteer turnout on the prior Saturday (in this case, though, June 28th — we basically took a break on July 5th, except in New Jersey and Virginia, where they have consequential statewide elections in November). As regular readers know, on Fridays i like to highlight the state where the most volunteers turned out. And, again, this week, the big Kahuna comes in right where you’d expect. Texas, with 752 volunteers outpaced Florida, which had 738, and Ohio, with 704 volunteers. School’s Out (for Summer).
So far, it is the Republicans that are making things messy. And, this being Texas, it is a big mess. Even though it seems inevitable that Democrats will also have a contested primary in March, it is the Republican primary that is drawing all the attention for the seat currently occupied by Sen. John Cornyn. “Currently, however, Cornyn is polling behind a challenger in next year’s Republican primary: Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who has, to say no more, a checkered past.”
But the Republican base that sent Cornyn to the Senate in 2002 has transformed. GOP voters have turned to the right, prizing partisan fighters like President Donald Trump and championing culture war issues over the traditional pillars of fiscal prudence and small government. Out of that movement has come Cornyn’s 2026 primary challenger, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is harnessing his reputation as a no-holds-barred conservative to position himself as the president’s warrior from outside the Washington beltway in which Cornyn has been ingrained. With Cornyn’s establishment ties putting his reelection bid in jeopardy, Texas’ senior senator is going all in on emphasizing his support for Trump — something he has been previously wary to do — to court the MAGA base that will be key to winning next year’s primary. Over the past several months, Cornyn has played up his conservative bona fides and allegiance to Trump's agenda through the bully pulpit of his office, issuing public declarations, holding hearings and embracing the president's favorite issues — even posting a photo of himself reading Trump’s “Art of the Deal” book.
Paxton’s colorful past has suddenly come back to haunt him. “The wife of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) filed for divorce Thursday, a move likely to reverberate in his campaign to unseat Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), one of the most closely watched Senate primaries in the country.”
The divorce could complicate the effort by Paxton — who has previously overcome criminal charges and impeachment — to challenge Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) in one of the most closely-watched primary battles ahead of next year’s midterms. [...] Despite his past controversies, early polls indicate Paxton leads in the primary over Cornyn, who has served in the Senate for 22 years.
Democrats have been arguing for months that a potential (some argue likely) Paxton victory in the March primary is the best opening in Texas for decades because he would be a weak general election candidate.
Democrats last carried Texas in a presidential election 49 years ago, last elected a U.S. senator there in 1986 and have lost all statewide elections since 1994. Texas Republicans could, however, surrender their considerable advantages and lose the state’s 2026 U.S. Senate election.
“Democrats see an opportunity to end a three-decade losing streak… [the] Republicans' vulnerability … has energized the party to take a shot at the seat.” The real question is, will the money follow. A nasty primary has been giving Republicans heartburn for months.
But there are Democrats who think the stars have finally aligned in Texas (and we are finding them at their doors). The final piece of the puzzle (at least for this week), is that Republicans may be about to shoot themselves in the foot. Gov. Abbott — who is no friend to Democrats —
has instructed the Texas legislature to consider congressional redistricting during a special session set to begin July 21, citing the Trump administration’s concerns. The agenda set by Abbott on Wednesday states that the session will consider “legislation that provides a revised congressional redistricting plan in light of constitutional concerns raised by the U.S. Department of Justice.”
“President Trump’s political team is encouraging Republican leaders in Texas to examine how House district lines in the state could be redrawn ahead of next year’s midterm elections to try to save the party’s endangered majority.”
The push from Washington has unnerved some Texas Republicans, who worry that reworking the boundaries of Texas House seats to turn Democratic districts red by adding reliably Republican voters from neighboring Republican districts could backfire in an election that is already expected to favor Democrats. [...] the president ... nevertheless urged a “ruthless” approach and said Mr. Trump would welcome any chance to pick up seats in the midterms.
“Trump’s political team wants to buttress the Republican majority against losses across the country by creating up to five new GOP seats in Texas — a proposal that critics say would almost certainly dilute the voting power of communities of color, and that Republican skeptics worry could stretch GOP voters too thin.” “The maps that were drawn by the Republican Legislature in 2021, after the last census, are still being fought over, in forums including a trial that began last month in a federal court in El Paso.” Democrats have challenged the existing maps arguing that they intentionally discriminate against some Black and Latino voters.
Redistricting this year will likely home in on South Texas, where Democratic Reps. Henry Cuellar of Laredo and Vicente Gonzalez of McAllen won reelection in 2024 by narrow margins. Both represent districts centered on the border and made up of Hispanic-majority populations that swung to the right in 2024 — gains that the GOP hopes are enduring, but that Democrats are desperately trying to claw back. voting power diminished. A more aggressive redistricting approach would almost guarantee legal backlash and spark concerns that communities of color, which are driving population growth in Texas, would see their
In other words, right in the middle of Hope Springs’ canvassing in South Texas! “Trying to push through new maps would almost certainly set off a bruising political fight” in Texas and Washington. “Experts said that maximizing a certain party’s seats over several election cycles becomes more challenging in the middle of the decade, when lawmakers will have to rely on likely outdated and less reliable data, and in a fast-changing state like Texas.”
Democrats are betting that midterms could offer more favorable conditions, especially as Republican infighting and voter fatigue set in. A new poll from the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas found that Texans' approval of President Trump's job performance has fallen into net-negative territory for the first time in his second term, with 44% approving and 51% disapproving.
We continue to knock on doors in TX-15 and have added TX-28 & TX-34, but considerable effort will be put into bringing the HSFF approach to state legislative districts that are (or should be) more competitive. Our Texas volunteers are determined to crack the MAGA hold on the state and want to exploit the Republican fear that redistricting will actually benefit Democrats!
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[1] Url:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/7/11/2332695/-Gerrymandering-Texas?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=more_community&pm_medium=web
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