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The America Party is Born [1]
['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']
Date: 2025-07-05
On July 5, Elon Musk made good on this threat and officially declared the formation of a new political party. www.politico.com/… His stated aim: to challenge the long-standing dominance of both the Republican and Democratic parties. Plenty of ink will be spilled on the coming days on this. But the implications, as they unfold, are potentially vast.
Third parties in modern U.S. history have had middling results, especially at the Congressional level. The more memorable impacts have been at the level of President.
In 1968, George Wallace ran as a third-party candidate for President under the American Independent Party and won 13.5% of the national vote, while carrying five southern states (his party did not significantly compete for Congressional seats). The electoral votes won by Wallace were not enough to change the outcome in an election won by Republican Nixon with 301 electoral votes to Democrat Humphrey’s 191 electoral votes.
In the 2000 U.S. presidential election, Ralph Nader, running as the Green Party candidate, won only 2.74% of the national vote and no states. But many argue his tally in Florida enabled Republican George Bush to carry the state against Democrat Al Gore by 537 votes (although this conclusion remains heavily disputed to this day).
The last significant national third-party success was the Presidential run of Ross Perot in 1992. Perot’s net worth at the time was around $3 billion. He spent approximately $63.5 million of his own money on his campaign, an enormous sum at the time for a self-funded candidate (Perot did not accept public campaign financing). Perot got on the ballot in all 50 states. He came in with decent name recognition nationally due to his business success, which he pitched as his main advantage over his more conventional opponents. Perot did not run candidates for Congress. He performed relatively well for a third-party candidate, winning 18.9% of the popular vote. Perot arguably shifted four states from Bush to Clinton, but not enough to have changed an outcome where Clinton won 370 electoral votes to Bush’s 168 electoral votes.
As of today, Musk’s net worth stands at $315 billion — a hundred times more than Perot. So, he can spent proportionately vaster sums on his party candidates in 2026 and beyond. The Citizens United case — decided in 2010 — hadn’t been around when Perot ran. So, Musk’s candidates can also avail themselves of a lot of so-called “dark money.”
Musk comes of course with other advantages than wealth. He is arguably more well-known globally than Wallace, Perot and Nader were. He controls his own social media empire. And his admirers have a loyalty that approaches the cult-like devotion of MAGA for Trump.
Some things have changed since Wallace, Perot and Nader ran. Ballot access laws have tightened, state filing laws have become more complex, and the traditional parties are quicker to litigate against newcomers perceived as threats.
Musk may run not only Congressional candidates in 2026, but a Presidential candidate in 2028. If his party is still around, he most certainly will run someone in 2028 (although it can’t be himself since he was born in South Africa).
Several short-term takeaways:
- this could kick off a wide-spread civil war within the GOP and also to some degree within MAGA. Trump is currently more powerful than Musk, by far, but Musk has enough money to put up a fight. And as time goes by, Trump will likely become weaker politically, closing the gap;
- Trump and his allies will immediately start targeting not only those DOGE acolytes left behind across the US government, but also any Trump appointees deemed “tainted” by association with Musk;
- Trump will also likely make good on his threats to go after Musk’s vast government contracts, which will be tough since Musk has embedded himself deeply in some public-private partnerships like Starlink and Space X;
- possibly, Trump will also go after Musk’s citizenship;
- Musk, for his part, has major cards to play in threatening to split both the 2026 Congressional midterm votes through “spoiler” candidates in key districts, as well as a similar cat’s paw candidate for President in 2028. If this is also a real long-term project, Musk could also run candidates at the state and local level;
- and of course Musk can do reputational damage to Trump by linking him to Epstein, calling for impeachment and floating various conspiracy theories;
- I am presuming any party Musk creates will draw more from the right than the left. I may not have been able to say that two years ago, but Musk has made himself so tainted since then on the left, I don’t see him being embraced even by the most jaded Democratic realpolitiks. However, there had already been murmurs of discussions behind the scenes with some Republicans and Democrats who could help Musk form this new America Party. It remains to be seen who these may be, but it is likely that, as in the past, it will be a collection of opportunists, wash-outs and retreads.
Cautionary note: Musk’s announcement may initially inspire joy in our hearts. Get the popcorn! The matinee is showing Frankenstein versus Dracula! However, there is a non-trivial possibility that Musk’s announcement is meant simply as a bargaining chip against Comrade Krasnov — a threat to be brandished but not used. Something to make Trump back off.
I think it unlikely - for the simple reason that the worsening relationship between these two men is not subject to the usual calculations of logic. We are dealing with the most massive, unleashed, untreated (not counting Ketamine) egos on the planet. Men who do not see themselves as having rivals, only subjects and minions.
There can be only one!
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