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Trump’s Popularity: A 4-Week Snapshot — June 2025 Update [1]
['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']
Date: 2025-07-02
A month ago I published here, with the aid of AI, Trump’s approval ratings for May.Although I have little trust in the effacacy of political polling, here below is an update for June. Make of it what you will.
In May, Donald Trump’s national approval ratings showed signs of erosion. His grip on the Republican base remained strong, but cracks began to form among independents, swing voters, and even some 2024 supporters. Now, with June’s polling data in, the trajectory has not only continued downward—it has accelerated.
This post presents a snapshot of June 2025 public opinion trends drawn from high-quality, nonpartisan polling sources. The findings paint a picture of a former president facing mounting headwinds as controversy, policy backlash, and economic unease drag down support.
📊 National Approval — Trump Still Underwater
While Trump’s base remains loyal, his broader approval metrics continue to worsen. June data from respected polling organizations shows an across-the-board decline or stagnation:
• FiveThirtyEight (Silver Bulletin)
◦ Approval: 45.5%
◦ Disapproval: 52.1%
◦ Net: -6.6 points (worse than -4.6 in May)
• Gallup
◦ Approval: 43% (unchanged), but disapproval now at 54%, up 2 points from May.
• Reuters/Ipsos
◦ Approval falls to 41%, reflecting continued softening.
• Pew Research Center
◦ Approval at 39%, down from 40% in May and 47% in February.
These numbers reveal a slow but steady decline, especially in Trump’s appeal to non-GOP voters.
🧑🤝🧑 Breakdown by Voter Group
Republicans
• Still loyal, but some signs of fatigue:
◦ Pew: 74% approval (down from 75%).
◦ AP-NORC: Only 46% of Republicans believe he’s focused on “the right priorities”—a 4-point dip from May.
Democrats
• Approval holds steady at 4%.
• A minor bump in May among younger Democrats has since disappeared.
Independents
• This group shows the sharpest decline:
◦ Pew: 35% approval, a 2-point monthly drop.
◦ Newsweek: Suburban independents’ support fell an additional 3 points in June.
2024 Trump Voters
• Disenchantment is growing:
◦ An ABC News/WaPo/Ipsos poll finds 8% now regret their vote, up from 6% in May—potentially significant in a tight electoral environment.
🔍 Emerging Trends
🏦 Economic Anxiety
• Trump’s approval on the economy hits a new low:
◦ Reuters: 35%, down from 37% in May.
◦ Inflation and unemployment anxiety persist despite Trump’s optimistic rhetoric.
📉 Policy Backlash
• June saw controversy over:
◦ A freeze on federal hiring
◦ Aggressive new tariffs on EU and Canadian goods
◦ Attempts to slash higher education funding tied to “anti-woke” compliance
These moves have energized his base but alienated centrists.
🌍 Global Leadership Vacuum
• Trump’s subdued response to escalating conflict in the Middle East and Eastern Europe has prompted critiques of disengagement and incoherence.
😓 Leadership Fatigue
• NPR/Marist: 49% of Americans now describe his presidency as “exhausting” or “chaotic,” up from 45% in May.
✅ Polling Integrity
All cited data comes from established, nonpartisan pollsters using statistically sound methods:
• Gallup — Longitudinal, rigorous, transparent
• Pew Research — Deep demographic and ideological insights
• Reuters/Ipsos — Mixed-method surveys with solid sampling controls
• FiveThirtyEight — Aggregated, weighted, and reliability-scored data
Margins of error across surveys generally remain under ±3.5%, with full transparency in methodology.
📌 Conclusion: June Deepens the Slide
Trump’s June numbers reinforce and amplify the downward trend observed in May. Independent voters are fleeing, some Republicans are wavering, and regret among former supporters is slowly increasing. While Trump still holds sway over the GOP, his national viability looks increasingly shaky—particularly on economic and leadership fronts.
If these patterns continue through the summer, they could reshape the playing field ahead of the 2026 midterms—especially in swing districts and purple states where independent and soft-partisan voters are key.
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