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NY Times David Leonhardt: Republicans will suffer consequences from their budget bill... eventually [1]
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Date: 2025-07-01
David Leonhardt and Michelle Cottle at The NY Times have a discussion:
And so will many voters.
I’m going to slice and dice this a bit. (Full access gift link.)
…Leonhardt: We’ve written two editorials about it focusing on what I think are two of the three big things that people should know about the effects of this bill. One of those editorials, that our colleague Binya Applebaum particularly worked on, looked at this idea that the bill really is going to cut health care for millions of people and it’s going to do so in a technocratic way — which is, the bill will introduce work requirements for Medicaid.
Leonhardt thinks this is not how healthcare should be handled. He also notes that Republicans aren’t going to repeal Obamacare — just make it unworkable.
…Cottle: So we’re looking at, like, 11 or 12 million people is the estimate for those who are going to lose their health care, right? Leonhardt: Yes. We don’t know exactly. These are forecasts, but we are looking at millions and millions of people. We are looking at a very significant retreat of the progress under Obamacare, and I think it’s important to remember that in President Trump’s first term, he and congressional Republicans said they were going to repeal Obamacare. They failed at doing that because there was a grass-roots movement led by disability-rights activists, led by other political organizers, that made the repeal of Obamacare so unpopular that a few Republicans, most notably John McCain — the famous thumbs-down vote late at night — led the repeal of Obamacare to fail. And now, the Trump administration and congressional Republicans, they’re not repealing Obamacare, but they’re basically undermining a large part of Obamacare while claiming otherwise. So they are basically doing a soft repeal of Obamacare and not telling the truth about it.
Leonhardt observes that Republicans will do what they always do, which is cut taxes on the rich. So, where can they get money to pay for it? (It’s amusing how he thinks Republicans actually care about the national debt and balancing the budget.)
…Leonhardt: Yes, so I mentioned a few minutes ago that there are three big things that I think people should know about this bill. And the second is the answer to your question. The Republican Party really wants to cut taxes for rich people, and if you want to cut taxes for rich people, you have to go find money to help pay for those tax cuts. And despite all the talk you hear of government waste and foreign aid, there’s not a lot of money in easily identifiable government waste or foreign aid. And so, like Willie Sutton said about the banks: You have to go where the money is. And where is the money in the U.S. government budget? It’s basically in three things: The military, health care and Social Security. There are some other things as well — anti-poverty programs, agriculture — but those are the big three ones… …In a one-sentence summary, this bill takes away health care from middle-class and poor people, and uses the money to pay for tax cuts mostly for rich people.
emphasis added
Fair enough and accurate. Social Security and Medicare are off the table (for now), so is defense spending — so Medicaid is on the chopping block. Now you know why so many red states fought expanding Medicaid under Obamacare — they didn’t want their base to complain when they cut it, as long as it was something those other undeserving people were getting and they weren’t.
The third thing Leonhardt has to say about the budget bill is this:
…But when you look at economic history, what you see over the last several decades is slow-growing incomes for most Americans, hugely growing incomes for the wealthy and at the same time, rapidly falling tax rates for the wealthy. And so this extends this economic era of really high inequality, and this bill will make that even more true. Cottle: So what you’re saying is, the next Bezos wedding will be even posher? David: Exactly, or at least it doesn’t have to become less posh because the higher tax rates don’t go into effect. In fact, this brings us to the third of the three points I billboarded at the beginning. In fact, these tax cuts are so big that the health care cuts aren’t coming close to paying for them. And so not only are Republicans cutting health care for poor and middle-class people in order to pay for the tax cuts, they’re also adding large amounts to the national debt… ...I don’t think most Americans understand that we are already spending more every year on the interest on the federal debt than we are spending on the military. So already the size of our federal debt is draining substantial resources from our government, and this tax cut is so big that it would significantly increase the debt in future years and decades.
I find it interesting that Leonhardt can talk about how the national debt is a serious problem, and how tax cuts for the rich will make it worse — but never mentions that making the rich pay MORE in taxes would be one way to do something about the debt. I suspect that at some level he considers the idea simply impossible, like violating a law of nature.
This wouldn’t be The NY Times without mandatory criticism of Democrats of course. Leonhardt remarks that Democrats need to claim the mantle of the party of fiscal responsibility. He thinks the focus on the dangers to democracy from Republicans are simply not registering with voters; only kitchen table items will make them pay attention, when they feel pain in the pocket book from higher prices, etc.
..Leonhardt: There was a wonderful guest essay in The Times just after Trump won the election nine years ago by Luigi Zingales, who is Italian and a professor at the University of Chicago. The headline on it was, “The Right Way to Resist Trump.” The analogy he drew was to Silvio Berlusconi in Italy, and he pointed out that the Italian politicians from the center and the center left who were most effective at defeating Berlusconi over the years were the ones who didn’t say: Look how outrageous he is. Look how beyond the pale he is. He isn’t us. That tended to fail for reasons connected to what you just said, Michelle. The ones who were more successful said: Look at how he’s failing to deliver on his promises. They treated him more like a normal politician who was failing to deliver than they treated him like some kind of existential threat. And I know that is very hard for those of us who do see really serious anti-democratic threats coming from Trump, as I do. But it’s really important to ask yourself what kind of political strategy doesn’t just feel good, but actually is effective. And I do think this bill will create an opening for people who are alarmed by Trump’s governance and his hostile attitudes toward democracy to weaken him politically and strengthen people who believe more deeply in American democracy.
To paraphrase Nancy Pelosi on Obamacare, people won’t understand what’s in this budget bill until it passes — and hits them. Leonhardt cites Democratic governors telling him: “about where to go from here for the Democrats, and they are kind of adamant that until people actually feel the pain of the cuts that are coming, there’s just not a lot you can do.”
It’s a long discussion with a lot to unpack. There’s some nuggets in there that give an idea of where Leonhardt is coming from. He’s the director of The NY Times Editorial Board, and some of this is telling.
..I actually understand why, at a top- line way, people would want to put work requirements on a federal program, and actually I do think there are federal programs that should have work requirements. I’m a pretty big skeptic of universal basic income, of the idea that we’re just going to have the federal government give people lots of money outright. I don’t think it’s worked very well. I think it’s hugely expensive. [Translation: Socialism must be resisted at all costs!] ...And so they’re not going to go after military spending. And actually, I don’t think they should. I don’t think the U.S. is spending too much on the military right now. It’s a different subject and I understand some listeners will disagree with that. ...And in some ways, the Republicans are the party of the working class. They certainly have closer views to the working class on most social issues… ...Cottle: Do you have a lot of optimism from what you’re seeing that the Democrats can rise to this occasion? Because as chaotic as the Republicans are, the Democratic Party is having its own kind of moment of existential crisis. Leonhardt: The easy answer is no. The easy answer is always not to be optimistic about the strategic acumen of the Democratic Party...
I left a comment on this editorial. As I would be greatly surprised to see The NY Times actually run it, I’m posting it here. For all that Leonhardt claims to be concerned about the anti-democratic actions of the Trump regime, I don’t think he’ll really grasp how bad they are until Homeland Security comes in and shuts down the paper and the DOJ seizes their assets. Until it becomes personal for him in other words.
I marvel at the sublime confidence here that there will be free and fair midterm elections, and that the Trump regime will accept anything except continued Republican rule. If the voters reject the GOP at the ballot box… Trump will loudly claim America-hating Communist Democrats are trying to steal an election - again. Pam Bondi’s DOJ and Kash Patel’s FBI will ‘discover’ widespread voter fraud and irregularities. Fox News will loudly proclaim it. Hegseth will send troops across blue America to suppress protests, and Homeland Security will round up ‘terrorist’ Democrats. The Republican Supreme Court majority will ratify any measures Trump takes; the GOP will refuse to cede control of Congress and will rubber stamp the atrocities. Ross Douthat will explain how this is all much-needed populist reform. Tom Friedman will marvel at how decisive and refreshing it is to see an administration that doesn’t second-guess itself. Bret Stephens will be reassured that Israel now can count on unquestioning U.S. support for anything it does. The NY Times editorial board will regretfully observe that Democrats brought this on themselves. And the rich will continue to get richer.
If you want a palate cleanser, Paul Krugman writing at Substack explains why Medicaid is not a soft target.
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