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Expanding the Electorate is still the Key to Democratic Electoral Success [1]

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Date: 2025-06-30

We’ve seen this before. In August 2007, Obama campaign officials met with Mr. and Mrs. Obama to explain why the self-organizing popularity of Barack Obama was not being reflected in the polls coming out that year (5 months before the Iowa caucuses). This year, we saw Former Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo lead all candidates in almost every NYC mayoral poll (basically, until the last moment). And, yet, both candidates saw their fortunes change when votes started being cast. There are definitely similarities between the candidacies of Zohran Mamdani and Barack Obama, but one, especially stands out.

Expanding the Electorate remains the Key for Democrats to win, and not just in General Elections.

We sometimes like to refer to this as registering voters, but registering voters is only the first step. It really doesn’t matter if you register new voters if they don’t turn out to vote. It’s one of the key complaints to voter registration projects. They are basically useless if they aren’t paired with turning out the new people who are registered. And that’s a lot harder than it looks.

This diary is prompted by a couple of articles in recent newspapers. One notes:

Upstart challengers in political races often begin with the goal of drawing new or disillusioned voters to their cause. They build excitement, often on social media, but inevitably fall short. Zohran Mamdani proved different. [...] Mr. Mamdani changed the electoral map. In the 14 days leading up to the registration deadline for the Democratic primary, about 37,000 people registered to vote, compared with about 3,000 people in the same period in 2021, according to an analysis by The New York Times. Mr. Mamdani’s campaign had focused on registering voters, and he also appears to have drawn thousands of voters to the primary who did not vote four years ago. [...] For months, Mr. Mamdani’s army of canvassers tried to reach new voters and then reminded them to go to the polls.

This should always be our goal.

We’ve just gone through a presidential election — the closest one i can remember — where the Democratic candidates chose to rely on the same electorate of the last (presidential) election instead of following this tried-and-true strategy of expanding the electorate. And, here’s the problem, as identified by Catalyst’s post-election analysis: For the last 12 years, Catalist found dropoff voters (those who voted in the previous presidential election but don’t show up in the current one) have been disproportionately Democratic-leaning. “For much of the 2024 election, the Harris campaign was convinced that they could win if the electorate looked similar to 2020, while the Trump campaign was eager to expand the electorate. In other words, Harris wanted an electorate heavily populated with frequent voters, while the Trump team wanted an electorate filled with voters who have not participated as much in major elections.”

Less than a year later, Zohran Mamdani has returned that traditional formula of expanding the electorate to the Democratic side. And we should celebrate that! It reminds us that this is how Democrats win.

Too much media attention has gone to the shock to the system of Mamdani’s primary success and we can’t let that overlook how Zohran’s campaign DID THINGS RIGHT. Sure, there were new, creative touches to the Message Arc, but they fact is that, underneath, that creativity was aimed at expanding the electorate to cast ballots that counted on election day.

This lesson hasn’t been lost on the Democratic party, “anxious to counter GOP gains in voter registration and improve their image after favorability ratings for the Democratic Party hit record lows this year. “Organizing Summer,” as Democratic officials are calling it, is aimed at those challenges.”

Hope Springs from Field PAC [dated website], of course, has been focused on voter registration and Democratic-supporter identification, motivation and mobilization for the last four years. In the last midterm election cycle, Hope Springs canvassed and turned out Democratic supporters to win in 16 out of the 18 Swing (or competitive) Congressional Districts in which we canvassed in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. We fully expect 2026 to be a better year than 2022.

Elections in 2025 and 2026 provide Democrats an opening to turn momentum in their favor. They have overperformed in special elections this year, and the party out of power often makes gains in the midterms. Voters critical of Trump have packed into town halls to vent and turned out for large nationwide protests, suggesting their side is energized.

But we ensure that expected success by doing the grunt work, the metaphorical blocking-and-tackling involved in expanding or remaking the electorate: Voter Registration (and Mentoring for GOTV), Voter Protection and Repeated (or Constant) Contact with the electorate. What we do this (Spring and) Summer (and, where possible, into the Fall) sets the stage for success in 2026.

25,065 volunteers knocked on 1,839,817 doors in June and talked to 149,458 voters. Although we are in more states and more districts, we definitely seem to be outpacing the prior midterm cycle. We are basically keeping pace with our 2024 numbers, where we knocked on more than 10 Million doors.

I spend almost every Saturday — not this Saturday, Hope Springs volunteers are taking the holiday weekend off — with our volunteers to canvass and take the measure of voters in these 35 competitive Congressional Districts in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia and Wisconsin. Which means, almost every weekend (as well as my 10/10/10 calls on Thursdays), i talk to Hope Springs volunteers and Democratic and unaffiliated voters and, believe me, they don’t hold back on what is on their minds.

I’ve talked to Jewish Democrats who remained concerned about their safety and African-Americans who express those same concerns. Almost every state i’ve canvassed in the last two years, i’ve heard voters talk about Affordability — not just about Housing, but in Rising Insurance costs, as well. Zohran Mamdani isn’t alone among Democrats, here.

But here’s the thing: we need to elect voices that represent each of us — and we don’t agree on that many things! Diversity remains our strength, which might be why president felon is so eager to stamp it out. I may not agree with Zohran ideologically (i’ve always considered myself radically moderate), but i appreciate his voice, even where we don’t agree. As long as he remains focused on meeting his constituents’ needs, than we are basically in agreement.

But one race — one candidate on the ballot — isn’t sufficient. We need Democrats who look and sound like every part of the Democratic coalition. Voters need to be able to see themselves — somewhere — on the ballot. Diversity remains our strength and the more diverse Democratic ballots look, the more people in that coalition are likely to cast ballots. We all need each other.

This year, and next, remain critical. ”Gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey will be this year’s highest-profile elections, along with the mayoral race in New York City. Next year, Democrats hope to retake control of the narrowly divided House and make gains in the Senate.”

If you are able to support Hope Springs from Field’s efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, we would appreciate your support:

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization

If you would rather send a check, you can follow that link for our mailing address at the bottom of the page. Thank you for your support. This work depends upon you!

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