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Iran Bombings Will Doom More GOP Incumbents. Might Some Now Switch, Flip the House and Be Heroes? [1]
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Date: 2025-06-27
[add your take via the detailed poll at bottom]
Trump has driven the wedge even deeper into his own base by bombing Iran before proposed negotiations had even started. The large portion of MAGA that was drawn to the isolationism touted in the Trump 2024 campaign should feel betrayed. They’d join the ranks of those who approved of getting rid of immigrants that were “convicted criminals, drug dealers, and rapists,” as Trump framed them, not purging brown people randomly to fill a quota set by Stephen Miller. After all, that has injected perpetual fear into their communities like their favorite waitresses and coworkers.
In state and federal elections recently, results have skewed about 15 to 20 points away from the hardline Republican candidates and causes, with abortion rights triumphant whenever possible. The question, in the eyes of House Republicans, is how that ratio applies to their own electorate. And what have those numbers ballooned to since ICE overreach and a potential war with Iran are now factored in?
If you’re a Republican sitting in Congress now on the strength of a 24-point victory, can you consider that seat safe with the above factors added to all the harm that Trump, Musk, Project 2025, and billionaires in the shadows have done to a largely benevolent government?
With the specter of having to vote for gutting Medicaid within Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” only a couple of weeks away, there should be a crossroads to consider. What are the barriers to reelection if committed to riding out the next 18 months on Trump’s lead coattails?
Facing blowback from the loss of Medicaid insurance for individuals, and the closure of rural hospitals when Medicaid reimbursements dry up. Hundreds of seniors in your district will lose Medicaid funding for nursing homes and be forced back to live with their families.
ICE raids, and/or the ever-present threat of them, will cripple many local industries. And if local farmers are facing major crop loses this year, those donors that have been consistent political allies may drop support and even fund efforts against you.
Sometime this summer the scope and depth of tariffs could be confirmed. Economic fallout and the collapse of Main Street businesses everywhere may result, along with massive, unavoidable inflation.
Resistance on the streets and at your offices will escalate. Local media will keep them in the public’s eye.
So the choices are to either parrot stale talking points, find new backers for your campaign that don’t see the futility of it, and keep your head low until your time in Congress is done, or to actually stand up to Trump and be a hero for the history books.
But you can’t do it alone. You have to seek out and bring onboard other members of the #SecretSaneGOPCaucus and connect with Democratic leadership to work a deal that not only saves democracy but also ensures the prolonging of your careers. Here’s how this might play out:
With a half-dozen House representatives leaving the Republican Caucus and declaring themselves independents caucusing with Democrats, the House majority would flip. I think that this small group, soon to be vilified by MAGA as turncoats, should brand themselves as #ConstitutionalConservatives, thereby demonstrating actual patriotism while maintaining some of their less divisive conservative roots.
Leaning on the Constitution is a great way to differentiate oneself from today’s #CORPservatives that have done nothing but serve their corporate and billionaire donors for years. They’ve cooked up their power by creating a Swiss cheese version of Christianity, starting late last century. It has convenient holes where The Golden Rule and “Judge not, lest ye be judged” used to go. This is an opportunity to stand out as a #ConsistentChristian, showing compassion in refreshing ways that many conservatives secretly yearn to once again have as a part of their conservative doctrine.
Why take this step? Whether it’s pragmatism, exhaustion, or conscience doesn’t matter. With the declarations of the new #ConstitutionalConservativeCaucus, Democrats assume House speakership and control over all committees, which bills move forward, and of course the power to impeach. So while CCC members may face a tsunami of backlash up front, the upcoming Trump implosion will assure that the entire party as it exists now will be toast. Then the new #CCC members will be the only political survivors once Dems are at the helm and investigations pop up like a bad case of acne across the entire Trump administration.
What would each side get in this gambit?
New Speaker Hakeem Jeffries (can’t we have Jamie Raskin, please?) could assign several of the CCC members to committee chairs, and DNC Chair Martin could vow not to support or fund Democratic opponents in the 2026 general election. Also, if these CCC alums stay independent, Dems could even offer up their offices and in that way help them fight Republican opponents out for blood.
There’s another factor here too. When the current GOP caves in, the Republican Party will be out of power at the national level for a good long while. As the rising leaders of GOP 2.0, this new batch will have bipartisan leverage to get at least a little of what their base might want, like keeping the second-highest tier of the Bush/Trump tax cuts intact for those making, say $8 million or less in gross receipts a year. That would keep most of their current donors happy. And when taxes go up, perhaps way up on their box store competitors, they’ll be happier still.
Even committees now chaired by CCC members will want to go along with this wave of investigations because the more they allow the destruction of the party that they left, the less there will be in long-term resistance to their political ascent.
One of the first three orders of business for the Democratic House should be to subpoena the fired Inspectors General from all government agencies, and have them testify to all the ways that the Trump versions violated the intent and function of these offices. They are, after all, the ones whose actual job it was to find waste, fraud, and abuse.
The second is to craft and present a presidential censure agreement that Trump would be forced to sign and comply with or trigger a third impeachment which he would surely lose. This would include reinstalling all these previously fired IGs and fire his most insidious carryover, Department of Homeland Security IG Joseph Cuffari.
With many of the guardrails of government back in place, next can be restoring international DOGE cuts including the most sadistic: ending USAID and PEPFAR.
Other requirements of the censure agreement could be:
Trump must adhere to all laws and norms in the future and align with his oath of office to uphold and defend the Constitution.
All acts outside of those bounds up to this point must be corrected as possible, including punitive acts against Harvard and other institutions. Also reversed would be the senseless ending of funding for medical research.
Similarly, the extra-legal activities, security breaches, and illegal firings by Elon Musk must be reversed, and DOGE ends now. All firing and defunding domestically by DOGE must be reevaluated, and reversed if documentation cannot justify actions taken.
Any further actions taken on Iran MUST be brought before Congress first as stipulated in the Constitution.
The government contract with Palantir must be cancelled, and the sharing of all private information between agencies shall not move forward. Any privacy breaches that do harm to individuals can be grounds for civil suits directed at Musk specifically, being that he acted as a consultant outside of government and simply took data without any congressional approval.
ICE can no longer detain and/or deport anyone without due process, and blanket sweeps without warrants focused only on specific individuals end immediately. Also, records of arresting officers must be released by badge number, with identities subject to subpoena in civil suits against those using excessive force or punitive cruelty.
All Cabinet and governmental agency choices put up for Senate confirmation MUST be reevaluated, mandating the previous higher standards for competency, experience, and familiarity with the roll. Also, there will be more weight given to FBI vetting, with critical weaknesses released to the public. Those already violating those standards as cited by reinstated Inspectors General will not be reconsidered.
President Trump must secure an agreement with VP Vance to adhere to these same guidelines, even if he were to eventually become President himself. Failure on Vance’s part once in the Oval could immediately trigger similar censure or impeachment proceedings.
The beauty of presidential censure can be in how it is written, knowing that Trump’s greed, vanity, laziness, and willingness to abandon allies abruptly when some of his skin is in the game can all be weaponized for the good of the nation. Tell Trump he has to boot Stephen Miller along with Vought and his Project 2025 brethren if he wants to keep his presidency - and most of his current abilities to profit on it - and he’ll be happy to oblige.
Trump will toe the line to keep the green, and when a very blue Congress steps in in 2027, Trump will be a feckless stooge, perhaps facing a Congress that can override any vetoes. But the deal will include no new charges or threats of forfeiture from past emoluments violations. That’s how to keep Donald from straying; all that would change if he ventures into impeachable territory after the deal is done.
Of course there will be a huge cost in letting Trump stay in office beyond his perpetual milking of taxpayers through trips to his golf courses. Petty isolationism and lost opportunities with traditional partners will continue, although those allies will soon understand that we’ll be back on their side in 2029. Divisive and destructive domestic policies may still be in play, albeit at that point subject to coloring between the lines.
The good news is that our economy will take a step away from uncertainty with tariffs no longer in Trump’s hands, instead back in Congress where they should be constitutionally. The Big Beautiful Bill would see the billionaire enrichment tax cuts carved out, or perhaps the whole thing will be scrapped if by the time the Senate version is ready, the new House leadership will render it DOA.
But this is the least damaging path; impeaching Trump could be even more dangerous and long lasting. VP Vance owes his entire political career to mega billionaire Peter Thiel with divisive libertarian (and South African apartheid) roots. He’s set things up to run the show through Vance, and executing the Project 2025 fever dreams of full-on RepubloFascism will be far more efficient under him than with Trump’s erratic and irrational blunderbuss approach.
So keeping Vance at bay is essential. And so is the third order of business for the new blue Congress, to end the cancer that has allowed this erosion of America’s greatness since the Newt Gingrich era: the opportunity to flood our political system with coercive cash that allows corruption by billionaires and corporations leading to disproportionate control over legislation, oversight, and budgetary priorities.
We need an updated version of the For the People Act that could’ve passed under Biden if bought out Democratic Senators Joe Manchin and Kirsten Sinema hadn’t voted against it. It’s within our power to overturn Citizens United and mandate public not private funding for national campaigns. Add in critical restrictions and transparency on superPAC spending and lobbying practices, and we could have politicians that have to please us rather than their billionaire buddies.
So who might be the initial members of the CCC?
There’s a metric in play here. Citing that 15 to 20% shift away from Republican candidates and causes noted above, House GOP members who won last time with less than a 25% margin might see their careers ending soon anyway, particularly if they feel that the fuse is lit on the Trump administration.
The most vulnerable reps might be the suburban legislators, as well as those from communities with a high hispanic population such as California’s Central Valley. In an interview with Aaron Parnas on Substack, new top Democrat on the House Oversight Committee Robert Garcia cites that David Valadao might have reason to budge on blanket Trump support. Garcia said:
“The reality is that this Republican Party has shown little interest in actually having a spine and standing up to Donald Trump. But we know we have members of Congress like David Valadao for example in California. He has more recipients that access Medicaid than any district in the state of California. “He’s a Republican who’s about to kick off millions of people in a program his constituents rely on, so the pressure on him and others in a similar boat is real. I’m hoping that he and others do the right thing and stand up to their party and save programs like Medicaid.”
Another House Republican has tested the waters of disagreeing with Trump: Thomas Massie of Kentucky. As an avowed libertarian, Massie joined with Dems trying to, as Time Magazine said, “…raise the alarm over potential U.S. military intervention in the Middle East without constitutionally-mandated congressional authorization.”
If you’re a GOP House member on the fence who ran on the isolationist part of the Trump platform, wouldn’t this be the right time to NOT be still be left pitching Trump’s contradictory talking points?
Remember, those who jump ship first will be future leaders of GOP 2.0 as stated above. And as CCC members that Dems won’t contest next election, being a hero for a generation through flipping the House should feel like a no-brainer.
All of this is doable for savvy Republicans with bipartisan planning, the desire to lead not follow a madman, and the immediate on-the-streets support available starting with the next #NoKings rally.
If you live in a Democratic legislator’s district, please call his or her office and announce an email arriving with a link to this post. Same goes for those in Republican districts, although the phrasing of the phone call should focus on the upside possibilities including those potential new supporters already planning to be in the streets.
And if it’s the stick not the carrot required with your representative, call them out on allowing Trump’s #SquanderingAmericasGreatness, including crippling the big chunks that Roosevelt introduced by adding critical social safety nets like Medicare and Medicaid. Each GOP rep needs to live with this label: #FTR, #FinalTermRepublican.
While it’s a real hoot dancing around holding signs with friends, it’s time to also build on what we’ve made of our foundation. And taking a direct hand in shaping the future of our politics, and our planet, has already proven to be part of our growing playbook thanks to Indivisible and the 50501 Movement.
Let’s make this happen, shall we? Let’s use #NoRepubloFascism as the theme in the next few weeks on the streets. In fact, we can call July 4th our #OriginalIndependenceDay with a #2ndIndependenceDay TBA. We’ll know it when we see it. There will be an inflection point when RepubloFascism crumbles and American democracy, in a more fair and protected form, again becomes the beating heart of America’s greatness.
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[1] Url:
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