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"Latinos Fueled Trump Win" [1]
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Date: 2025-06-26
Final Word on 2024: Latinos Fueled Trump Win
Pew finally came out with their “validated voter” survey,” widely considered the gold standard, because it only counts people who are listed as having actually voted in their state’s voter turnout records.
..Pew pretty much rebuts the idea that Harris lost because unenthusiastic Democratic “base” voters stayed home. This is a popular narrative among progressives who believe Harris was too cautious and centrist to rally the troops, even as Trump’s MAGA fans ran to the polls in a state of high excitation. But Pew found only a small Trump turnout advantage at most; 89 percent of his 2020 voters returned to the polls, as compared to 85 percent of Joe Biden’s. Even more convincingly, eligible nonvoters preferred Trump to Harris by a 44 percent to 40 percent margin, which shows the Trump campaign’s focus on marginal voters (who in the past have invariably leaned Democratic) had some merit. Had all eligible voters turned out, Trump would have won by about the same margin. The tale of 2024 is vote share rather than turnout and persuasion rather than mobilization.
It wasn’t young voters, or working class voters, either.
Rather, Trump’s biggest gains were among Latino voters.
The much-discussed trend that is fully borne out in Pew’s analysis is that Trump made his most important gains among Latinos. Clinton won these voters by 38 percent; Biden won them by 25 percent; and Harris won them by 3 percent. That’s remarkable. And though it’s been much less discussed, there has been an equally calamitous decline in Democratic support among Asian Americans, the fastest-growing racial-ethnic group in the country. Biden won them by 40 percent, and Harris won them by 17 percent.
This could be an opening for Democrats. Latino and Asian immigrants are the prime targets of Stephen Miller’s mass deportation efforts. Maybe we can peel them away from the GOP in 2026 and 2028.
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