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Can Mikie Sherrill, the DEM New Jersey Candidate for Governor, Win Without Black and Latino Voters? [1]
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Date: 2025-06-25
Why the Real Power in NJ Might Be Ras Baraka and the Voters Democrats Take for Granted
The Numbers Don’t Lie—But They Do Warn
In the unfolding drama of New Jersey’s 2025 gubernatorial race, the spotlight is not only on Rep. Mikie Sherrill’s center-left candidacy but increasingly on the pivotal role of Newark Mayor Ras Baraka and the mobilization of Black and Latino voters. While Sherrill cruised to victory in the Democratic primary—carrying 15 of 21 counties, largely with support from 71% of white women voters and earning a 14-point lead—the numbers reveal a more complicated picture. Urban, diverse constituencies remain less fully engaged with Sherrill’s campaign, and Ras Baraka may hold the key to unlocking their full political potential.
Baraka finished second in the Democratic primary among six candidates, securing 20.5% of the vote. He didn’t just perform well—he dominated key urban centers, winning Essex County by six points and Union County by nine, thanks to deep support from Black and Latino voters. In their shared home turf of Essex County, Baraka, the mayor of Newark, captured approximately 40% of the vote, outpacing Sherrill, who hails from nearby Montclair and garnered just 33%. The message is clear: while Sherrill’s base of white, suburban moderates carried her through the primary, it is far from enough to guarantee victory in the general election. Without full-throated support from the very voters Baraka mobilized—Black and Latino communities in New Jersey’s urban core—Sherrill’s path to the governor’s mansion remains precarious. The stakes couldn’t be higher: Failing to unite the Democratic coalition risks handing the state to Trump-backed Jack Ciattarelli and signaling a broader unraveling ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Baraka’s Base: The Sleeping Giant of New Jersey Politics
Baraka and his supporters know the numbers—and they know the people. Even without a primary win, their commitment has only grown stronger. They’re building power from the ground up, driven by a clear mission: to reimagine New Jersey through a multiracial, working-class coalition that puts communities first and pushes back hard against the rising tide of MAGA politics.
Black residents comprise approximately 13% to 15.5% of New Jersey’s population, or roughly 1.2 to 1.4 million people. That’s not a marginal constituency; it’s a vital one that must be energized and turned out. An estimated 800,000 to 900,000 Black voters are registered in New Jersey, and the state ranked fifth nationally for Black voter registration in the 2020 presidential election—evidence of strong political engagement. Among Black Democrats, 63% hold a favorable view of Mayor Ras Baraka, with no other candidate coming close to breaking 20%. They are unlikely to vote Republican, but the real question is: will they show up in massive numbers if Baraka’s name is not on the ballot?
Trump’s Shadow Over Jersey: MAGA’s New Battlefield
Jack Ciattarelli, now officially endorsed by Donald Trump, has fully embraced a hard-right platform, including Trump’s restrictive immigration policies. His campaign has become a test of MAGA’s staying power in a traditionally blue-leaning state. While New Jersey has consistently voted Democratic in national elections, it has a history of electing Republican governors—and the GOP has been making quiet but steady gains, especially among working-class and Latino voters. Trump is eyeing New Jersey as a potential upset, betting on Ciattarelli to flip the state red in an off-year election. The real concern is that Democrats could fumble the moment so badly that Republicans pull off a win—even in deep-blue New Jersey.
The Union Flip: Pipeline Promises and Political Betrayals
Fueling Ciattarelli’s momentum is the controversial endorsement from IUOE Local 825, a powerful union of engineers with a large Irish membership. Once a backer of Sherrill’s congressional runs and Phil Murphy’s re-election, the union now claims Sherrill’s clean energy agenda threatens jobs, specifically her support for solar power and shift away from gas pipelines.
Solar Doesn’t Stall Jobs—But It Does Threaten Power
Union business manager Greg Lalevee argues that the Democratic energy agenda is stalling infrastructure work and hurting union workers. But that argument falls flat. Solar and renewable energy projects also require skilled engineers. The union’s endorsement of Ciattarelli—and alignment with Trump’s immigration policies—suggests deeper cultural and political motivations. Despite this, on June 17th, Sherrill secured the endorsement of the New Jersey AFL-CIO, which represents over 1 million union members and their families. The New Jersey AFL-CIO's membership is majority white, but with strong representation from Black and Hispanic workers, and a nearly even gender split that has recently tilted toward men.
Baraka’s Leverage: Lieutenant Governor or Kingmaker?
This shifting political landscape makes one thing crystal clear: Sherrill must reunite the Democratic base—especially Black and Latino voters, whose enthusiasm during the primary was noticeably subdued. While Mayor Baraka hasn’t officially endorsed her yet, his influence is undeniable, and his grassroots credibility is unmatched.
According to a senior advisor, Sherrill and Baraka are in active discussions about offering him a lieutenant governor slot—or another prominent, policy-shaping role. Initially, Baraka dismissed interest in the position, but he is now reconsidering, provided the role comes with real authority and a platform to champion progressive priorities. For many in the movement, his presence would not just secure a broader coalition—it would signal that the voices of working people, communities of color, and grassroots organizers are central to shaping New Jersey’s future, not sidelined. Sherrill has until July 28 to select a running mate. Her choice will be more than symbolic—it will reflect whether the Democratic Party is willing to embrace multiracial, working-class leadership in a moment when the stakes for the 2026 midterms couldn’t be higher.
If Baraka joins the ticket—or throws his full support behind Sherrill—he could dramatically shift the political landscape. With current polling showing Sherrill at 45% and Ciattarelli at 42%, the race remains within the margin of error. But that’s just the topline—regional support will vary widely. In a contest this close, the margin is razor thin, and turnout among Black and Latino voters could be the decisive factor. Their mobilization could mean the difference between victory and defeat. And it won’t just be a win for New Jersey Democrats—this race is a high-stakes preview of what’s to come in the 2026 midterms. If Democrats can’t turn out their base here, in a blue-leaning state with a well-known moderate candidate, it could signal deeper vulnerabilities across the national map.
Latino Voters Are Not a Lock—They’re a Wild Card
Democrats in New Jersey are still reeling from the GOP’s significant gains among Latino voters. Between 2020 and 2024, Trump’s support among Latinos in the state surged from 28% to 43%—a dramatic shift that flipped several heavily Latino towns that had long been Democratic strongholds. In the upcoming election, the stakes could not be higher.
Latino voters—who comprise approximately 21.6% of New Jersey’s population—are the largest and most rapidly growing demographic in the state. The community includes Puerto Ricans (about 30%), Dominicans, South Americans, and Mexicans. Roughly 57% of New Jersey’s Latino population is native-born, while the rest is evenly split between naturalized and non-citizen foreign-born residents.
Latino voter registration rates historically trail those of white and Black voters, but they remain substantial, estimated between 700,000 and 800,000 registered Latino voters. This makes them a crucial and growing voting bloc. Although the Latina Civic PAC endorsed Mikie Sherrill in the primary, among Latino Democrats, Ras Baraka holds a notable edge, with a 40% favorability rating.
These are not guaranteed voters—they are persuadable. In the upcoming election, the stakes could not be higher. Democrats cannot afford to assume Latino loyalty; they must actively earn it.
Coalition or Collapse? The Party’s Future Runs Through Newark
This race is more than a state contest. It’s a preview of the 2026 midterms. Can Democrats still build multiracial coalitions that win statewide races? Can they energize progressive voters while retaining the support of suburban moderates?
Sherrill’s broad appeal is an asset—but it’s not enough. She must excite and engage the voters who carried Barack Obama and other Democrats to victory: Black and Latino communities who are often taken for granted.
If Baraka joins the ticket, or even mobilizes his base with a full-throated endorsement, he could be the deciding factor. The path to victory runs through Newark, Paterson, Elizabeth, and Camden—not just Montclair and Morristown.
Final Word: Power, Unity, and the Fight Ahead
This is a moment for values, vision, and unity. The Democratic Party’s ability to defeat MAGA extremism—and remain relevant in a shifting America—depends on whether it truly represents the diversity of its coalition.
In a previous diary, I wrote about the enthusiastic support white women must give to Democratic candidates. In this diary, the question shifts: Sherrill, the white woman—will she offer the Black man, Ras Baraka, the lieutenant governorship? And will he, in turn, give his enthusiastic support without some meaningful political role in return?
Baraka holds the influence. Sherrill holds the opportunity.
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