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No War With Iran! [1]
['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']
Date: 2025-06-23
Don Old Trump just took us to war with Iran without explaining why it was necessary or getting authorization from Congress. Trump is weak and stupid. He got played by Bibi Netanyahu and looks like a lying fool.
The rationale for this new war in the Middle East is Bibi Netanyahu’s unverified claim that Iran is capable of building a nuclear weapon within a few weeks. However, Netanyahu has made that claim many times since 1995. Why should we believe him now?
While we’re on the subject of Netanyahu, he told us that Iraq had a nuclear weapon in 2002 and that regime change in Iraq would be a “positive” development for the Middle East. Why does anybody believe this guy?
The war in Iran is Trump’s fault. He blew up the 2015 Obama nuclear deal that had the Iranian nuclear program locked down. Trump’s national security team informed him the deal was working and that Iran was in compliance. They advised him to maintain it. Nevertheless, Trump repudiated the deal merely because he hates Obama.
Over in the reality based community, U.S. intelligence assessments reached the conclusion was not only was Iran not actively pursuing a nuclear weapon, it was also up to three years away from being able to produce and deliver one to a target of its choosing.
Trump’s Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, testified in March that the U.S. intelligence community, “continues to assess Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khameni has not authorized a nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003.”
From the New York Times on June 19:
“U.S. intelligence agencies continue to believe that Iran has yet to decide whether to make a nuclear bomb even though it has developed a large stockpile of the enriched uranium necessary for it to do so, according to intelligence and other American officials.
That assessment has not changed since the intelligence agencies last addressed the question of Iran’s intentions in March, the officials said, even as Israel has attacked Iranian nuclear facilities.
Senior U.S. intelligence officials said that Iranian leaders were likely to shift toward producing a bomb if the American military attacked the Iranian uranium enrichment site Fordo or if Israel killed Iran’s supreme leader.”
What this means is that U.S. bombing would make Iran more likely to produce a nuclear weapon. This would make it the dumbest war ever fought.
A U.S. war with Iran would be unlikely to take out Iran’s nuclear program. From The Guardian:
“The effectiveness of GBU-57s has been a topic of deep contention at the Pentagon since the start of Trump’s term, according to two defense officials who were briefed that perhaps only a tactical nuclear weapon could be capable of destroying Fordow because of how deeply it is buried.
Those in the briefing heard that completely destroying Fordow, which Israeli intelligence estimates to go down as far as 300ft (90 metres), would require the US to soften the ground with conventional bombs and then ultimately drop a tactical nuclear bomb from a B2 bomber to wipe out the entire facility, a scenario Trump is not considering.
Dropping GBU-57s would likely set back Iran’s ability to obtain weapons-grade uranium for up to a few years, but not end the program completely.”
Vice President JD Vance has already indicated that Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium is still intact. That means there will be more bombing.
The Israelis and some of the neo-cons who brought you the Iraq War are even talking regime change in Tehran. Netanyahu has made it clear from the beginning that he hopes to weaken the Iranian regime to the point of collapse and has urged the Iranian people to rise up against it.
Now Trump is following Netanyahu’s lead (again) and calling for regime change. On Sunday he posted: “It’s not politically correct to use the term, “Regime Change,” but if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change??? MIGA!!!”
The only real historical example of successful regime change are the defeat of Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan in World War II. The U.S. had to mobilize its entire population and economy to win World War II. Moreover, both country’s cities were all bombed into rubble or burned to the ground.
Even if the Islamic Republic were to somehow collapse due to American and Israelis airstrikes, concerns about the security of the Straits of Hormuz, a massive wave of refugees and radiological material, would most likely compel the the U.S. to intervene with ground troops.
Iran has long vowed to retaliate in the event of a U.S attack. A news anchor said on Iranian state television, “Mr. Trump, you started it, and we will end it.” The broadcast showed a large graphic of American bases in the Middle East with the headline, “Within the fire range of Iran.” The anchor said the United States had no legitimate place in the region.
Trump special envoy Steve Witkoff warned leading Senate Republicans before the war that the Islamic Republic could unleash a mass casualty response if they believe the regime is in danger of falling. The Mullahs won’t do down without a fight.
Before the war began, Iran had 2,000 ballistic missiles with warheads that can carry 2,000 pounds of explosives or more. (The Iranians probably have fewer missiles now in light of Israel’s relentless attacks.) Numerous U.S. military bases — in which 40,000 U.S. troops are stationed — are within range for many of these missiles.
“Any attack by the US will lead to full-scale attack by the Iranians against US bases in the region, and a full-scale war between the US and Iran,” according to Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute in Washington.
Iran also has the capability to shut down (at least temporarily) the Straits of Hormuz through which flows 20 percent of the world’s seaborne oil shipments. The Iranians have their own navy, speed boats, mines and anti-ship missiles with which to attack both military and civilian seaborne traffic in the vital Straits of Hormuz. Even a temporary shutdown of the Straits of Hormuz would drive up the price of fuel and cause a world wide recession.
The wisdom of the war (or lack thereof) needs to be front and center in the debate. If we get a discussion largely focused on the justification for war, the Administration will trot out the so-called evidence from Bibi Netanyahu. They will then impugn the patriotism of anybody who challenges that evidence. Trump will cowardly hide behind MAGA generals to market a war.
Focusing on the justification for the war — and not the foolishness of the conflict — plays into the hands of MAGA. That’s why the focus needs to be on why Trump’s war in the Middle East is a terrible idea. A war with Iran will be a lot tougher than the Iraq War. Focusing the debate on the wisdom (or lack thereof) of a new war in the Middle East would put the Trump Administration on the defensive — not us.
Trump lacks the authority to take the country into war with Iran. There is no imminent threat to America from Iran. He cannot take this action without congressional authorization.
“We need to immediately return to DC and vote on Rep Thomas Massie’s and my War Powers Resolution to prevent America from being dragged into another endless Middle East war.” Rep. Ro Khanna. There needs to be an up or down vote. Get every Republican on the record.
“I am not opposed to all wars. I’m opposed to dumb wars.” — Barack Obama
Please call your members of Congress and tell them to say no to another war!
Sources consulted:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/19/trump-caution-on-iran-strike-linked-to-doubts-over-bunker-buster-bomb-officials-say
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/19/us/politics/iran-nuclear-weapons-assessment.html?smid=bs-share
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