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Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: Okay, after Wag the Dog, now what? [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2025-06-23

Juliette Kayyem/X via Threadreader (format lightly edited):

I don't know if this was successful or just attacks on surface level access. But there are consequences and so here are issues to discuss beyond tactics @CNN Strait of Hormuz: reporting suggests about 50 oil tankers are scrambling to get out, so there may be fears that it can not be navigated soon and that will impact global economy;

can not be navigated soon and that will impact global economy; American and American interests as a target abroad, including troops, European targets, or US targets/people abroad;

homeland security threat with our entire DHS apparatus now focused on ICE and the evisceration of counterterrorism and countercyber capacities there;

evisceration of counterterrorism and countercyber capacities there; would be nice to have confidence in our intelligence but the last few days suggest our own -- let alone our allies -- is being ignored.

When you don’t get expert advice, and just go with the bobble dolls you appointed, you are unprepared for what comes next.

What comes next? Are we prepared?

Tom Nichols/The Atlantic:

The United States Bombed Iran. What Comes Next? President Trump is taking an enormous risk. Beyond that, the most optimistic view is that the introduction of American muscle into this war will produce a humiliating end to Iran’s long-standing nuclear ambitions, enable more political disorder in Iran, and finally create the conditions for the fall of the mullahs. This may have been the Israeli plan from the start: Despite Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s warnings about the imminence of an Iranian nuclear-weapons capability and the need to engage in preemption, this was a preventive war. The Israelis could not destroy sites such as Fordow without the Americans. Israeli military actions suggest that Netanyahu was trying to increase the chances of regime change in Tehran while making a side bet on dragging Trump into the fray and outsourcing the tougher nuclear targets to the United States. The very worst outcome is the polar opposite of the optimistic case. In this bleak alternative, the Air Force either didn’t find, or couldn’t destroy, all of the key parts of the Iranian program; the Iranians then try to sprint across the finish line to a bomb. In the meantime, Tehran lashes out against U.S. targets in the region and closes the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian opposition fades in importance as angry Iranian citizens take their government’s part. One dangerous possibility in this pessimistic scenario is that the Iranians do real damage to American assets or kill a number of U.S. servicepeople, and Trump, confused and enraged, tries to widen his war against a country more than twice the size of Iraq.

x On air, there is a lot of discussion of military tactics based on information we can not verify. It is important to also discuss the second order impacts, with eyes wide open. That is my job. Nobody knows how this unfolds, so I laid out the potential negative consequences. @cnn https://t.co/yQFdVVPnMn — Juliette Kayyem (@juliettekayyem) June 22, 2025

Nicholas Kristof/New York Times:

The Three Unknowns After the U.S. Strike on Iran The first uncertainty is how Iran will strike back at the United States. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, previously promised, “The harm the U.S. will suffer will definitely be irreparable if they enter this conflict militarily.” Iran has many options, including attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq, Bahrain and elsewhere in the region. It could also mount cyberattacks, strike American embassies or support terrorist attacks. Another option would be to seek to close the Strait of Hormuz, fully or partly, by attacking shipping or by laying mines. That could be a blow to the world economy, for one-quarter of the world’s oil passes through the strait. Experts have told me that they believe the United States could, over time, reopen the strait, but there might be economic and other costs. When Iran mined the strait in 1988, a mine crippled a U.S. Navy frigate, the Samuel B. Roberts.

x What concerns me tonight?

-Safety of 30k US troops in the Middle East

-cybersecurity (CISA was recently gutted) & homeland security (HLS focused on immigration)

-Economic strength (oil prices and tariffs)

-Allied assistance and intelligence flow (we’ll need that now more than… — Mark Hertling (@MarkHertling) June 22, 2025

G Elliott Morris/Strength in Numbers:

Polls: Americans oppose U.S. bombing of Iran One survey found only 16% of adults, and 19% of Trump voters, support the U.S. bombing Iran. 60% oppose. In the immediate aftermath of this bombing, it is worth saying one thing very clearly: The American people do not support U.S. military intervention in Iran. At least, not right now. In this quick post, I will go over the recent polling data on the U.S. bombing Iran. Then I will compare current support for intervention in Iran to historical interventions in the Middle East, and finally explain why it's important to take stock of public opinion on Iran more broadly — and keep in mind that things can change quickly.

Americans will support it if there are no consequences. But there are rarely strikes of this import with no consequences.

x The hardest rule of Beltway journalism is that Republican public officials have no agency and bear no responsibility for choices fully within their discretion pic.twitter.com/tcTPr573HT — Scott Lemieux (@LemieuxLGM) June 22, 2025

Aaron Rupar and Thor Benson/Public Notice:

“Neither our media nor our political system is designed to deal with a far right authoritarian party” Mark Copelovitch unpacks his signature phrase. “Performative public lying is a hallmark of far right authoritarian parties.” “Neither our media nor our political system is designed to deal with a far right authoritarian party.” If you’re familiar with these phrases, you’re probably aware of Mark Copelovitch, a professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison who has popularized them on social media. Both expressions capture something profound about American politics in the age of MAGA. Not a single day goes by without performative lying from Republicans — consider the truth-resistant sales pitch they’re currently making for Trump’s big bill — or without fresh demonstrations from the press and/or the political opposition that they’re unequipped to deal with a major party that has abandoned democracy for the sake of smash-and-grab mobsterism.

x What a time to be alive. The president of the United States doing battle damage assessment via sketchy OSINT accounts. I had blocked this particular account some time ago. pic.twitter.com/Z1dVXS4dAa — Shashank Joshi (@shashj) June 22, 2025

A local/national story from the NY Times:

‘An Existential Threat’: Food Banks Brace for Fallout From Trump Cuts New York City food banks aren’t sure how they will survive the administration’s funding cuts, which could also affect the programs they turn to for help. Ms. Williams, 75, said she was once an editor for a fashion magazine and a doo-wop singer. She and her twin, Doreena Davidson, are breast cancer survivors. But now Ms. Williams spends her days going from food bank to food bank, seeking navy beans and split peas for soup — a meal that can stretch after she inevitably runs out of money each month. It is, she said, a demoralizing experience. And recent moves in Washington to cut federal funding for food benefits have filled many New Yorkers like Ms. Williams with mounting panic.

x Another poll showing Trump’s approval rating on immigration falling. And in this one, it’s falling quicker than his rating on other issues https://t.co/DMUSQZYcwQ pic.twitter.com/rtHifu113f — G Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) June 21, 2025

Washington Post:

Crews unearth relics of enslaved children’s lives at site of 1760s school The excavation of the Williamsburg Bray School has yielded hundreds of artifacts, providing a glimpse into the lives of Black children who attended the school in the 1760s. While fragments of the building’s foundation had been previously found, historians hope the unearthing of the larger foundation and related artifacts will broaden and deepen the nation’s understanding of its formative years and the experiences of the people who lived through them. The discoveries come after some states have restricted what history can be taught and as the country continues to debate how to remember its past.

x Trump has forfeited the benefit of the doubt. We should be deeply skeptical of yesterday's mission and any information or further action to come. Trump is a liar and an idiot. Incompetent and inexperienced people surround him.

2/ — Jeff Timmer (@jefftimmer) June 22, 2025

David Shuster on Jake Tapper:

And a reminder the NYC Democratic primary is Tuesday, with Rank Choice Voting. Andrew Cuomo is the favorite, but there might be a Zohran Mamdani upset.

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