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Ukraine Invasion Day 1,215: a UKR "dirty bomb" returns to RU disinformation messaging [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2025-06-21

Russian forces conducted a series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of June 20 to 21.

Likely because of the US bombing of Iran the trope of a Ukrainian “dirty bomb” was advanced by the Kremlin.

The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched two Kh-47M2 Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missiles from airspace over Tambov Oblast, four Kalibr cruise missiles from the Black Sea, two Iskander-K cruise missiles from Belgorod Oblast, and 272 Shahed and decoy drones from the directions of Bryansk, Kursk, and Oryol cities; Shatalovo, Smolensk Oblast; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; and occupied Cape Chauda, Crimea.[68] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed three Kalibr cruise missiles, one Kh-47M2 air-launched ballistic missile, and one Iskander-K cruise missile. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 140 drones and that 112 drones were “lost” or suppressed by Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) systems. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian strikes primarily targeted Kremenchuk, Poltava Oblast. Ukrainian officials reported that the Russian strikes targeted Odesa, Kharkiv, and Poltava oblasts and damaged civilian and energy infrastructure in Kharkiv Oblast and Kremenchuk, Poltava Oblast.[69] understandingwar.org/... Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed three Kalibr cruise missiles, one Kh-47M2 air-launched ballistic missile, and one Iskander-K cruise missile. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 140 drones and that 112 drones were “lost” or suppressed by Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) systems Russia continues to field modernized Shahed drones, expand domestic drone production capabilities, and innovate long-range strike tactics. Ukrainian electronic and radio warfare expert Serhiy Beskrestnov told Ukrainian news agency UNIAN on June 20 that he estimates that Russia has increased its Shahed production capabilities sevenfold.[16] Beskrestnov noted that Russia is attempting to reduce its dependency on Iran by producing modernized Shahed drones with mostly Russian- and Chinese-made components and that Russia is equipping newer Shahed models with antennas that are more resistant to electronic warfare (EW) interference. Beskrestnov stated that Russian forces are constantly innovating Shahed tactics to improve strike accuracy and evade Ukrainian air defense systems and units. Beskrestnov reported that Russia is preparing to build another Shahed production facility in an unspecified location and forecasted that Russian strike packages may soon incorporate up to 800 Shaheds, compared to the 300 to 400 that Russia typically launches in nightly strikes against Ukraine. understandingwar.org/... Geran-2 Head of the Kharkiv Oblast Prosecutor's Office Spartak Borisenko reported on June 20 that Russia is modernizing its Geran-2 drones (Russian-made analogue of the Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones).[17] Borisenko reported that Ukrainian authorities have observed downed Geran-2 drones with a modified four-cylinder two-stroke engine, increased warheads, and new antennas and fuel systems, which are different from the components that Russia used in Shahed drones as of April 2025. Borisenko noted that Russia now has two factories producing modernized Geran-2 drones that use both Russian and imported dual-purpose components. ISW has recently reported on data indicating that Russia is expanding its long-range drone production capabilities.[18] understandingwar.org/...

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Ukrainian officials responded to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s June 20 statements at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) and urged the international community to take more decisive action against Russia.[5] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky responded to Putin’s statement that Russia owns everywhere a "Russian soldier steps" and emphasized that Putin clearly laid out Russia’s intention to seize all of Ukraine during this speech. Zelensky noted that this ideology implies that Russia could also lay claim to Belarus, the Baltic states, Moldova, the Caucasus, and Central Asian countries like Kazakhstan.[6] Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha stated that Russian soldiers bring "only death, destruction, and devastation” wherever they step.[7] Sybiha stated that the only way that Putin will accept peace would be if the West forced his hand through increased support for Ukrainian defense, severe economic sanctions, the recognition of Russia as a terrorist state, and complete diplomatic isolation. Sybiha called on the international community to push back against Putin’s continued aspirations toward new territorial gains. ISW has previously noted that Putin's theory of victory is based on the assumption that Russia can outlast Ukraine's will to fight and the Western coalition supporting Ukraine, and that reducing US military aid to Ukraine will neither lead to a sustainable peace in Ukraine nor compel Putin to reassess his theory of victory.[8] understandingwar.org/...

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Key Takeaways: Russian President Vladimir Putin's long-term demands for full Ukrainian capitulation remain unchanged.

Ukrainian officials responded to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s June 20 statements at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) and urged the international community to take more decisive action against Russia.

Kremlin officials appear to be reviving the false narrative that Ukraine intends to use a "dirty bomb" against Russia, likely in an attempt to influence Western discussions about providing additional military assistance to Ukraine.

US Special Envoy to Ukraine General Keith Kellogg met with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in Minsk on June 21.

Russia continues to field modernized Shahed drones, expand domestic drone production capabilities, and innovate long-range strike tactics.

The Russian government formally announced its intention to reassess Russia's territorial waters in the Baltic Sea over a year after the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) published and subsequently deleted a similar proposal.

Russian forces advanced near Novopavlivka and Velyka Novosilka.

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