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Israel and Segesta; Iran and Syracuse; China and Sparta [1]
['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']
Date: 2025-06-21
The arc of empire can be long or short, but it eventually bends towards, and always ends in, collapse.
The U.S. strike on Iran's nuclear facilities this evening suggests that Trump and his policy team discount the possibility of any serious Iranian response, but Iran's apparent defensive and offensive ineptness until now is really no reason for such complacency. Here are three of the most obvious reasons to question the wisdom of these strikes.
(1) Iran has produced radioisotopes such as Cesium-137, Cobalt-60, and Americium-241 that could be incorporated into missile warheads to produce radiological dispersal weapons (“dirty bombs”). While such weapons would not produce numbers of immediate casualties from radiation sickness, in the areas hit they would cause spikes in cancer rates months or years down the road and would render affected areas uninhabitable for decades (as with Cesium-137) or even centuries (as with Americium-241). And the psychological effect on the affected population would be substantial.
(2) Iran has a significant stock of anti-ship missiles and drones available on its shores on the Persian Gulf, as well as on several islands in the Gulf. While U.S. Navy air defenses might be as effective as Israeli defenses in shooting down a claimed 90 to 95 percent of missiles and 99 percent of drones, those that slip through the defensive screen could still devastate U.S. surface fleets in the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean. One should work on the assumption that the Chinese will use their vast array of sophisticated tracking satellites to give the Iranians real-time information on the position, speed, and vectors of U.S. Navy ships in the area.
At first thought one would think that the Chinese would want to keep Iranian oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz to Chinese refineries. However, if the Iranians choose to close the Strait, the Chinese may well be able to cover much of the loss of oil supply by arranging for larger shipments from Russia, as well as perhaps from the Saudis. And keep in mind that the Chinese are rapidly making greater use of renewable energy sources and weaning themselves from dependence on gasoline for vehicles. (Footnote: in 2024, when the U.S. was struggling to install some 200+ EV charging stations nationwide, Huawei in China installed 100,000 charging stations. Repeat: 100,000 EV charging stations in one year. The U.S. is no longer really competitive with China in industrial capacity or infrastructure investment.)
The Russians are no doubt embarrassed by the poor showing of legacy Soviet and Russian air defenses employed by Iran, and Putin seems disinclined to go beyond strong words of condemnation of the Israeli strikes. However, if Iranians do close the Strait of Hormuz, at least Putin could expect higher oil prices to help fund his ongoing nostalgic imperial adventure in Ukraine. And U.S. preoccupation with Iran and the Persian Gulf would likely swiftly reduce U.S. levels of military support to Ukraine. Maybe Putin would figure that such an outcome might be a net tactical gain for Russia.
It is not hard to imagine that the Chinese might see considerable geostrategic benefit in helping the Iranians embarrass the U.S. Navy. Perhaps, besides providing real-time satellite tracking data, the Chinese might even transport to Iran a few of their highly capable hypersonic anti-ship missiles, along with a few launch crews, for a live fire field test of such missiles against U.S. ships in the Persian Gulf?
We can also be sure that the Chinese are using their satellites and ground listening stations in the area to hoover up all possible SIGINT and COMINT from Israeli and U.S. military activity. No doubt they are running the collected transmissions through AI algorithms and their own quantum computers to detect patterns and potential vulnerabilities. They had a chance to field test this collection capability during the recent dust-up between India and Pakistan.
(3) The Iranians (despite their utter failure with air defense) are a technologically sophisticated society of 90 million people. They certainly possess advanced biochemical capabilities, including CRISPR technology. At a recent dinner party I had the chance to speak with an internationally renowned biochemist who was very familiar with CRISPR technology. He told me that using CRISPR to modify a pathogen--including modifications designed to make a pathogen much more lethal--really require nothing much more sophisticated than a kitchen sink with the technology necessary to maintain the correct temperature for the CRISPR biochemical reactions. If Israel and the U.S. threaten Iran with large scale economic destruction and regime change, would not the Iranians consider using such a capability in select Israeli and/or American cities if they developed the means to deliver weaponized lethal pathogens?
It is doubtful that anyone with any real expertise on Iranian politics and culture is having any influence on Trump's thinking. Does Trump even know what a Shia is? Does he have any concept of Shia notions of martyrdom? Is it really sensible to back a theocratic regime dominated by Shia clerics into an inescapable corner with the expectation that "unconditional surrender" will be the result--rather than a last, desperate, even suicidal spasm of defiance?
After the Israeli and U.S. strikes is it not now more likely that Iranian leaders will conclude that their pursuit of purely peaceful uses nuclear energy has been proved to be untenable in the face of intractable Israeli and U.S. hostility, and that the preferable option is now to proceed full speed toward a real nuclear deterrent force?
Perhaps the most relevant recent historical parallel is Austro-Hungarian Emperor Franz Joseph's intentionally unacceptable ultimatum delivered to Serbia in July 1914, just a month before the aging Emperor's 84th birthday. Until that point his instincts in overseeing his multi-ethnic empire had not been bad, but he allowed his diplomats and generals to talk him into approving such an unanswerable ultimatum. Four years later the Austro-Hungarian was gone, just another empire in the annals of history.
The most relevant ancient parallel may be Thucydides' account of the Peloponnesian War. During a truce between Sparta and Athens in the midst of the war, the Sicilian city of Segesta managed to entice the Athenians to come to its aid in a conflict with a client of the powerful city-state of Syracuse. The Athenians fell for the bait and expected an easy intervention against Syracuse. The Athenian expedition bungled and dithered; Sparta came to the aid of Syracuse; and after two years the Athenian expedition ultimately suffered a complete rout which marked the beginning of the end of the Athenian Empire. (An interesting side note was the defection of high-living, self-promoting, egotistical Athenian politician and general Alcibiades to the Spartans.) Within nine years Sparta completely crushed Athens to win the war, end Athenian democracy, and dismantle the Athenian Empire.
Is Israel our Segesta? Is Iran our Syracuse? Is China our Sparta, poised to pick up the pieces of a crumbling world order? Is the U.S. an end-stage Athens?
The arc of empire can be long or short....
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