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Lazy Thinking, Wishful Thinking [1]
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Date: 2025-06-20
One of the suggested goals of the Netanyahu bombing campaign on Iran is to bring about regime change. The current Iranian government is unpopular, and Netanyahu’s government seems to believe a “nudge” from the bombing could cause the Khameini government to collapse. The Trump administration appears to think the same thing, and that may be one of their considerations in whether or not to engage with Israel in military action against Iran. And of course the press has picked up on this way of thinking without questioning this logic so far.
This is crazy and dangerous thinking. Whenever a nation is attacked, the first response from its citizens is to “Rally “Round The Flag, Boys.” Whatever problems an existing government might have, its citizens will stand behind their government against a foreign attack. Iran’s Khameini government might be politically weak, but with its citizens rallying behind it, it will be a lot stronger in a hurry.
Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Zelensky’s government had become quite unpopular. It was widely thought that his government was a failure, and would collapse in short order. Putin probably thought that his invasion would hasten Zelensky’s demise. But the reverse happened . Zelensky has rallied his nation, and is considered a wartime leader in the mold of Lincoln or Churchill. There is no question about Zelensky’s authority now.
I cannot believe anyone would think that attacking a foreign nation would cause the automatic collapse of that government. Our own history refutes that thinking. There was a lot of reluctance by our citizens in getting involved in WWII. Japan ended that reluctance with their Pearl Harbor attack. And, although it is unpopular, I think the Khameini government may well get a second wind due to Israel’s attacks.
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