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Kick-Off Canvass in New Jersey: a Governor's race in 2025 and Congressional Seat in 2026 [1]
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Date: 2025-06-20
I must be a sucker. Not even two days after we decided we were over-extended, i got three calls/requests to add another. One was from my old boss. But the call that counted came from the candidate herself. She promised to throw in her own field organizers, but the kicker was, “and our volunteers.”
So maybe we weren’t that over-extended.
We are now canvassing in the 17 Hope Springs from Field PAC [dated website, to be updated in the Fall] target states: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Kentucky (KY-6), Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia & Wisconsin.
We are still using the Congressional District model here. And i can’t say yet how this is all going to work out, especially since talking to a candidate is completely different than talking to a campaign manager, but i have a plan.
You may be thinking, this is Friday. Why are we introducing a new state on Friday? As people who read my diaries are aware, i like to highlight the state where the greatest number of volunteers showed up on the prior Saturday. And last Saturday that was New Jersey. In part because many of our volunteers elsewhere were engaged in protesting “No Kings.”
478 people came out to knock on doors in New Jersey on Saturday. Like all canvasses, we trained volunteers before they departed. As i’ve said before, voters are more likely to remember the impression volunteers leave than what they say, and we want that to be a positive impression. Smile! It’s the most important thing they can do.
We walk volunteers through the Issues Survey, Constituent Service Request forms, Incident Reports, Observation Forms and Q(uestion) Slips and explain how each will be used. We also explain the Voter Registration form and remind them that a) federal law requires they be registered at their current address, and b) that the Voter Registration deadline for the General Election is October 14, 2025. Yes, New Jersey (like Virginia and New York City, etc) has a General Election this year. That’s why Hope Springs from Field is here!
New Jersey and Virginia (where we’ve been canvassing since April) are considered harbinger elections, setting the stage for the midterm elections next year. So while both states are considered Leaning Democratic right now, we understand the importance of electing Democrats to these governorships and state legislatures.
Consensus Senate Map for 2026
At this point, we are focused on NJ-07 and NJ-02. NJ-07 is Thomas Kean’s seat and has been targeted by the DCCC. The Cook PVI rating for this race is EVEN. The Cook PVI for NJ-02 is R+5.
Last Saturday, 478 volunteers knocked on 34,750 doors — not bad for a kick-off canvass! They talked to 2,780 voters and had in-depth conversations with 1,759 of them, respectively, guided by our Issues Questionnaire.
Hope Springs from Field PAC began knocking on doors again on March 1st. We target Democrats and unaffiliated voters with a systematic approach that reminds them not only that Democrats care, but Democrats are determined to deliver the best government possible to all Americans. The voters we talk to continue to tell us they come away more invested in governance and feel more favorably towards Democrats in general because of our approach.
Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization
Hope Springs from Field understands that volunteer to voter personal interactions are critical. Knocking on doors has repeatedly been found to be the most successful tactic to get voters to cast a ballot and that is the goal of what we do.
Jobs was the Top Issue in New Jersey on Saturday. Concerns over Tariffs, especially in how it could affect Prices and Jobs was the #2 Issue, and Due Process was the Third most frequently Issue cited by voters there.
We’ve been asking voters if they approve of the sudden and deep cuts in federal programs and agencies that Elon Musk’s DOGE and the House Reconciliation Bill have made. 2% of the voters we talked to said they viewed these cuts in a favorable light on Saturday. 25% thought just the opposite. 10% of the voters we talked to had a favorable impression of the job Trump was doing (43% disapproved). We didn’t get the kind of smart-ass comments that we heard in Iowa!
Even though there is a Senate election in 2026, we aren’t asking voters about that. You can see from the consensus Senate map why. We are asking voters how they feel about their Members of Congress. 4% of the voters we talked to had a favorable opinion of the incumbent. 28% disapproved. Since this is an open seat for Governor, we are asking voters if they have favorable impressions of Mikie Sherrill and Jack Ciattarelli. 36% of the voters we talked to had a favorable impression of Sherrill and 3% had a favorable impression of Ciattarelli, Voters could have had a favorable impression of both, but it shows that, even though New Jersey recently had their primaries, voters haven’t exactly developed opinions of the candidates yet.
Hope Springs volunteers registered 1 new voter on Saturday. We re-registered 7 voters, who mainly updated their addresses. We differentiate between the new voters and re-registering voters because brand new voters are often ignored by campaigns and we hope to compensate for that somewhat by having volunteers send them post cards before the election and they will also receive robocalls thanking them for registering.
115 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms on Saturday. We send completed CSRs to Democratic elected officials (if possible) responsible for the requested functions, in this case, Mikie Sherrill. We encourage Democratic candidates to reach out immediately to the voter who filled out the Constituent Service Request forms and let them know they are working on the issue. This credit-taking is enormously valuable to the Democratic office-holder. Elsewhere, we have increasingly had local Democratic elected officials and prospective candidates join our Saturday canvasses just because they hear about these CSRs.
This race has the potential to be a brutal one. Though no Republican has won New Jersey’s presidential vote since 1988, its governorship has often swung between the two parties. The GOP believes Ciattarelli is well positioned to win this year, in part because of dissatisfaction with the leadership of Murphy, who has been in office eight years and is term-limited.
New Jersey brutal? Who could have expected that?
We knock on the doors of Democratic and Independent voters and use a voter-driven conversation to guide them through the Issues Survey, the CSR and Incident Report (if needed). We record questions voters raise with a Q(uestion)-slip and record other relevant observations on an Observations form. Q-slips are sent to the relevant Democrat to respond to and Observations are entered into VAN. At every door, we leave a piece of “show the flag” lit, something that tells them we were there and hopefully reinforces the Democratic brand. The lit focuses on the things voters told us were important to them last fall, aiming to appeal to every voter.
But the main focus of our canvassing is the Issues Survey, asking voters for their input and concerns. Voter responses to the questionnaire are entered into VAN and made available to all Democratic candidates who use VAN in the state after the primary. Creating this kind of data isn’t done with a specific goal in mind but has the purpose of engaging voters and creating a dataset that any Democratic candidate can use in opposition to a Republican.
Hope Springs has targeted states that have competitive Senate races and/or Congressional Races in 2026. There is a lot of work to be done! Especially since we have had to expand the map this year.
By starting early, and aiming towards super-compliance with some really, really onerous new voter regulations, Hope Springs from Field seeks to undermine that strategy, while informing voters about the new laws and regulations aimed at them and helping them to check their current voter registration status, if they cannot access it online themselves.
Our biggest expense is Printing the Walk Lit that we leave at every door. Access to the Voter File is our second largest cost. But it is also a fixed cost. That won’t change as we raise and spend more money. Printing and mailing our our Post Cards to New Voters is our third cost and paying the fees for ActBlue is the smallest of our monthly costs.
Hope Springs is a seat-of-the-pants grassroots-driven operation. We don’t have employees but we realize that to formalize and professionalize this effort that will have to change eventually.
Hope Springs has been called “the most comprehensive, organized grassroots voter contact project out there right now. It is truly astonishing that it is grassroots-based!” Not sure why it is “astonishing,” but i probably have more faith in grassroots or self-organized efforts because of my experience with Barack Obama’s early days in 2007.
If you are able to support Hope Springs from Field’s efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, we would appreciate your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization
If you would rather send a check, you can follow that link for our mailing address at the bottom of the page. Thank you for your support. This work depends upon you!
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