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NYC-Mayor: Marist Poll Has Zohran Mamdani Gaining Fast On Cuomo, Let's Get Him Over The Finish Line [1]

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Date: 2025-06-18

Here’s some very encouraging news today out of New York City:

The Democratic primary for New York City mayor has tightened into a two-man sprint in its final days, with former Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo maintaining a modest but diminished lead over Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani, according to a new poll released on Wednesday. The survey from the Marist Institute for Public Opinion found that 38 percent of likely voters planned to rank Mr. Cuomo first on their ballots, compared with 27 percent for Mr. Mamdani. In a simulation of the city’s ranked-choice voting system, the former governor prevailed over Mr. Mamdani by 10 percentage points in the seventh round. Yet, with less than a week to go before the June 24 primary, the results also showed signs of momentum for Mr. Mamdani, a 33-year-old democratic socialist running on an economic populist message. He cut the lead Mr. Cuomo held in a Marist poll in May by nearly half by consolidating progressives and making inroads with Latino voters. “Mamdani is clearly in Cuomo’s rearview mirror,” said Lee M. Miringoff, the poll’s director. “What’s the line? Objects in the mirror may be closer than they appear.”

Here’s the breakdown from Marist:

In the Democratic primary for New York City Mayor, Cuomo is the first-choice candidate of 38% of likely Democratic primary voters. Mamdani comes in second with 27%, up from 18% last month. Brad Lander and Adrienne Adams follow. Each receives 7% of the vote. Scott Stringer garners 4% while Zellnor Myrie and Michael Blake receive 2% each. Whitney Tilson has 1% of the likely Democratic primary vote while Jessica Ramos, Selma Bartholomew, and Paperboy Love Prince receive less than one percent each. 11% are undecided, a decrease from 17% in May.

Cuomo continues to do best in the Bronx where he receives 49%, similar to his support in May. Cuomo also leads in Queens/Staten Island where he receives 44%. Cuomo's support in Manhattan has increased (41% from 32% in May), while Mamdani's backing is little changed in the borough. Mamdani's best borough is Brooklyn where he has 36%, an 11-point increase from last month. Cuomo garners 26% in Kings County, comparable to the 25% he received last month.

Mamdani has made inroads among likely Democratic primary voters who are Latino. Mamdani's support has more than doubled among this voting group (41% from 20%), and he now leads the field among Latinos. Cuomo's support among Latino voters has declined (36% from 41% in May).

44% of likely Democratic primary voters say they plan to vote in-person on primary day. Cuomo (40%) bests Mamdani (25%) as the first-choice candidate among those who plan to vote on primary day. 43% of likely Democratic primary voters say they plan to vote early at a voting location. The contest tightens among these voters. Cuomo (37%) edges Mamdani (32%) by five points. 11% of likely Democratic primary voters report they will vote by mail or by absentee ballot. Cuomo (40%) has a double-digit lead against Mamdani (22%) among these voters.

When calculating ranked choice voting round-by-round estimates, Cuomo receives 43% to 31% for Mamdani in the first round among likely Democratic primary voters (excluding undecided voters). Lander follows with 8%. Adams has 7%, while Stringer receives 4%. Myrie (2%), Blake (2%), and Tilson (1%) each receives support in the low single digits. Less than 1% support Ramos, Bartholomew, or Prince.

In the 7th round of voting, Cuomo crosses the 50% threshold and receives 55% of likely Democratic primary voters (excluding undecideds). Mamdani places second with 45%, Of note, Cuomo's support in the sixth round rounds up to 50%, but he does not receive majority support until Round 7. In May, Cuomo received majority support in the fifth round.

FYI:

Zohran Mamdani and Brad Lander, the leading progressive candidates in the Democratic primary for mayor of New York City, cross-endorsed each other on Friday, creating a late-stage partnership designed to help one of them surpass former Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo in ranked-choice balloting. The candidates, who are second and third in the polls behind Mr. Cuomo, encouraged their supporters to rank them in the top two spots on their ballots. The city’s ranked-choice voting system allows primary voters to list up to five candidates in order of preference. If no candidate receives more than 50 percent of New Yorkers’ first-choice votes, ranked-choice tabulations will begin. When voters’ top choices are eliminated during that process, their support will get transferred to candidates who are lower on their ballots. The partnership, which was announced one day before early voting begins, effectively turns Mr. Mamdani, a state assemblyman, and Mr. Lander, the city comptroller, into something of a joint entry. They said at a news conference in Manhattan on Friday that they would campaign together and that they were proud to endorse each other because they had integrity and Mr. Cuomo did not.

Cuomo and his crew are getting desperate:

Three days after endorsing Andrew M. Cuomo for mayor of New York City, Michael R. Bloomberg put his money where his mouth is. On Friday, Mr. Bloomberg, the billionaire former mayor, gave $5 million to Fix the City, a super PAC that is supporting Mr. Cuomo’s bid for mayor. That brings the PAC’s haul to roughly $20 million. Even before this donation, it was the biggest super PAC in New York City history. The new infusion of resources will amplify the PAC’s ability to target Zohran Mamdani, the democratic socialist candidate now perceived as Mr. Cuomo’s main target in the June 24 Democratic primary. Before Mr. Bloomberg’s donation, the PAC had raised roughly $15 million, according to a spokeswoman, and spent about $9 million, much of it on advertising seeking to draw a contrast between a purportedly can-do Mr. Cuomo, 67, and Mr. Mamdani, a 33-year-old state assemblyman from Queens who is described in the ads as a “risk.” The donations came days after an apparently draft piece of PAC campaign literature was leaked to a reporter showing an altered photo of Mr. Mamdani that made his beard appear thicker and darker, next to language suggesting he was anti-Jewish. The PAC said it rejected the proposed literature and that it was never sent out. Mr. Mamdani, who is Muslim, described the literature as Islamophobic.

But here’s the truth:

As for the TV ad’s policy claims, Mamdani did call for defunding and dismantling the Police Department on social media in 2020. As a candidate, though, the assemblyman has said that the department has a “critical role” in the city and has pledged not to reduce its size. The ad misleads on his homelessness plan. Mamdani has proposed opening “triage” centers in vacant retail spaces in subway stations to help people undergoing mental health crises. It is part of a broader plan that includes hiring outreach workers in 100 of the busiest subway stations. But he has not called for moving homeless people into the subways. Mamdani has denounced the ad as an attempt to “smear and slander” his campaign with Islamophobic dog whistles. (It came days after the leak of a mailer from the pro-Cuomo super PAC in which an image of Mamdani appeared to have been altered to make his beard look darker and thicker; the mailer was never sent.)

Mamdani has been picking up some big endorsements like him:

Bernie Sanders has endorsed the leftwing New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani in the latest boost to his insurgent campaign. Mamdani, a democratic socialist like Sanders, is the main rival to the campaign of the former New York governor Andrew Cuomo, who is seeking to rehabilitate his political career after leaving office amid sexual harassment allegations. Cuomo, 67, began the race as a dominant favorite but Mamdani, 33, has surged in recent weeks, netting the key endorsement of Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez. One poll even showed him edging into the lead. “At this dangerous moment in history, status quo politics isn’t good enough. We need new leadership that is prepared to stand up to powerful corporate interests & fight for the working class,” said Sanders, a senator from Vermont and a powerful figure on the Democratic party’s progressive left.

And her:

Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, New York City’s most prominent progressive leader, endorsed Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani for mayor on Thursday, throwing her clout behind an upstart socialist who has galvanized young voters. The endorsement, shared in an interview with The New York Times, represented perhaps the most significant attempt yet to push fractured progressives toward a single strategy to block former Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo’s path back to power. “Assemblymember Mamdani has demonstrated a real ability on the ground to put together a coalition of working-class New Yorkers that is strongest to lead the pack,” Ms. Ocasio-Cortez said. “In the final stretch of the race, we need to get very real about that.”

With primary day coming up on June 24th, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee is making sure Mamdani pulls ahead and makes it to the final ballot. Received this e-mail today the PCCC:

Primary election day in New York City is next Tuesday – June 24. The mayor’s race is a pivotal test for progressives nationwide. That’s why we’re thrilled to endorse Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani for Mayor! Zohran is surging in the polls -- within 2 points of Andrew Cuomo, according to Politico. The choice is simple: America’s biggest city could have a disgraced, abusive former Governor endorsed by billionaires -- or an inspiring generational leader endorsed by a coalition of unions, progressive elected officials and groups, and community leaders who fight for working families. In the city’s ranked choice system, voters can rank up to 5 candidates for mayor. Then, in a series of rounds, the lowest vote getter automatically gets eliminated and their supporters’ votes go to that supporter’s next choice. Alongside the Working Families Party, we urge voters to rank Zohran Mamdani #1, longtime progressive Brad Lander #2, and to NOT rank Cuomo at all. In fact, Zohran and Lander have endorsed each other: "We both love New York City. And that’s why it’s so important to not send scandal-ridden, corrupt Andrew Cuomo to City Hall. Brad and I are officially telling our supporters: If I’m number one, rank the other number two." Want to help win this key race and ensure that disgraced ex-Governor Andrew Cuomo doesn’t set foot in the Mayor’s office? Click here to call local voters and click here to donate to the New York Working Families Party and support their work to elect candidates like Zohran Mamdani. Zohran is a 33-year old organizer-turned-Assemblyman who says his campaign is about "fighting for the working class every day." Bernie Sanders endorsed him because he will "stand up to powerful corporate interests" on behalf of working families. Issues like child care, free bus service for workers, and affordable housing are top issues. Of the $33 million spent in this race so far, $18 million is for Andrew Cuomo – including by big corporations and billionaire Mike Bloomberg on Cuomo’s behalf. The next 5 candidates were $13.5 million combined. But the polls are still tight, which is why our support is needed now. Zohran’s campaign has taken the media by storm and galvanized an unprecedented volunteer army of thousands of everyday New Yorkers around a clear vision: a city that working class people can afford to call home. Zohran says, “The people have the power.” He made a closing argument against Cuomo in the final debate: "I have never had to resign in disgrace. I have never cut Medicaid. I have never stolen hundreds of millions of dollars from the MTA. I have never hounded the thirteen women who credibly accused me of sexual harassment. I have never sued for their gynecological records. And I have never done these things because I am not you, Mr. Cuomo." And Brad Lander has been a terrific New York City comptroller. As you probably saw, he was just arrested by masked ICE agents while accompanying immigrants to court, simply for asking to see a warrant. He's a model of resistance for elected officials, and we're grateful for his leadership. This election is a historic flashpoint in our fight to stop corrupt politicians and billionaires from buying our democracy and working against everyday families. Want to help win this key race and ensure that disgraced ex-Governor Andrew Cuomo doesn’t set foot in the Mayor’s office? Click here to call local voters and click here to donate to the New York Working Families Party and support their work to elect candidates like Zohran Mamdani. (And pass this to others.) Thanks for being a bold progressive. – Hannah Riddle, Director of Candidate Services

Click here to sign up to get out the vote.

Click here to here to donate to the New York Working Families Party’s GOTV efforts for Mamdani.

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