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Mystery flights of Chinese 747 airfreighters to Iran and more [1]

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Date: 2025-06-18

On Saturday, a 747 airfreighter took off from China. Sunday another one took off. On Monday, a third one took off from Shanghai. The planes flew westward over Northern China, then south to Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, then disappearing from radar as they neared Iran.

The flight plans showed Luxembourg as the destination. The USA has the C-17 and the huge C-5A to transport military assets. Other countries use the 747 airfreighters to do the same. So the guessing game is on as to what was on those planes. My guess would be electronics and missile parts.

The 747 cargo planes used were from Cargolux, based in Luxembourg. Cargolux did not respond to questions about what those planes flying out of China were carrying.

Why would China get involved with this? China is Iran's biggest oil customer, taking in two million barrels of oil a day. Prices have gone up $10 a barrel on the open market since Israel's attack on Iran.

China has supplied Iran missile components and at the end of January sent two container ships full of rocket fuel to Iran. On April 26th, it appears that the whole shipment blew up in the port of Bandar Abbas. Killed 57 people, blew out windows a mile away, was felt 30 miles away, and incinerated 10,000 shipping containers. Why it was still there after three months is another mystery. Or an exercise in stupidity.

What was in the air shipments is also a mystery, but you could make a safe bet it had to be war materials of some sort that needed to get there fast, or they didn't want a ship to be stopped for an inspection somewhere on the shipping path.

In May, the US sanctioned a number of Chinese companies helping Iran's ballistic missile program.

Just before the Israeli attack, Iran had ordered up double the amount of the rocket fuel that blew up in Bandar Abbas. This may have been another factor in Israel deciding to attack when they did.

Iran mined the Strait of Hormuz in 1987 and 1988, and it might do so, or is doing so now. Shipping companies are being advised to stay close to Oman and UAE and avoid Iran territorial waters in the 20-mile gap of the strait at its narrowest point.

Strait of Hormuz with shipping lanes.

Shipping insurance rates are going up, and tankers carrying 2 million barrels of oil are now making $50,000 a day instead of $20,000 before Israel's attack.

Simplified map with arrow for Strait of Hormuz.

Ships are sometimes navigating blind with GPS jamming and AIS, Automatic Identification System, spoofing going on. It probably was the cause of two oil tankers colliding just days ago. 3,000 ships a month go through the Strait of Hormuz every month. A fifth of the world's oil, a third of the natural gas, and ships with all kinds of other cargo go through the strait. If Iran closes it off, it becomes a big problem for all, but mostly for China, as China takes 90% of Iran's oil production.

This electronic jamming is already a hazard to navigation in the Strait of Hormuz because of the narrow point.

Arab states are worrying about nuclear materials becoming airborne to their countries if nuclear facilities with the uranium are hit. So far there are no reports of contamination from facilities that have been hit by Israel. That changes if the US hits the Iranian Fordo underground facility with those 30,000 lb GRU-57A/B bombs. Iran's only functional nuclear power plant at Bushehr is closer to Arab capitals than to Tehran. Shades of Chernobyl if it was hit. Nations with 60 million people nearby depend on water processed by desalination. If Bushehr was hit, that all goes away. Same with fishing. The Qatari Prime Minister said they would run out of water in three days. They have no rivers.

Those US refueling tankers are headed to the Middle East, with F-16, F-22 and F-35 jets dragging, meaning getting refueled in flight to travel beyond their normal range.

The U.S.S. Nimitz aircraft carrier and its strike force are joining the U.S.S. Carl Vinson and its strike force add to the firepower. They could wipe out the Iranian Navy, which has left Bandar Abbas, but anchored not far away and too close together.

Iran did extensive military maneuvers in January and talked about new weapons, without revealing what they were.

There is a good variety of Iranian missiles. How much of each they have, or have left, is another question.

The Ayatollah has been posting a lot on X. Very good artwork, but he's not making any headway with this bluff.

He almost sounds like that old margarine commercial, "It isn't wise to fool Mother Nature!" Actually it was "It's not nice to fool Mother Nature," but you get the idea.

He is right that they were in negotiations with the US, but they hadn't done it in the 60 days Trump gave them to make a deal. Now Trump feels justified in whatever he does. First he says they waited too long, then he says he would talk to them, then he says they're too late, like "Too Late" Jerome Powell. He did say that while the new White House flagpoles were going up. It's TACO time again.

Iranian drone facilities may have been targeted by Israel along with other military and nuclear sites. No matter what, shipments of them to Russia have most likely stopped. Whatever Iran has they need to use themselves.

Whatever Iranian state TV meant yesterday when they warned of " a surprise tonight that the world will remember for centuries," didn't happen.

Only Congress has the power to declare war, but that may not stop Trump. He does as he damn well pleases. There are bills in the House and the Senate right now that specifically say Trump cannot declare war with Iran. But House and Senate Committees are too busy playing games to get to them. One of them is a privileged resolution so it means they have to vote on it, if they ever get to it.

If it happens, it's Donald's war. Nobody else's. Even Marjorie Taylor Greene says so.

And to give it a proper New York Post ending:

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