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Is the Theocratic Regime in Iran Heading toward Collapse? [1]
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Date: 2025-06-17
All sorts of news coming out about the long-distance war now being waged between Israel and Iran. From Worldcrunch (a French-based left-leaning curator of international news stories rated highly factual by Media Bias/Fact Check), an overview of the Iranian regime’s dire strategic position:
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Is Clinging To Life — And The Regime May Not Stand Without It Since its surprise attack against Iran on Friday, Israel has targeted and killed several senior military leaders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as well as the Quds Force, the corps’ elite military and intelligence arm. On Monday, Israel said that it had struck the command center of the Quds Force, though details are still scant. These precise attacks are a clear sign that Israel’s long-term strategy focused on weakening the IRGC, Iran’s military-ideological pillar, may be arriving at a crucial turning point. In Israel’s security analysis, the IRGC is not just a domestic force for Iran but a transnational actor and structural threat to the regional order — debilitating the Revolutionary Guard, in other words, would be an existential to the regime in Tehran.
What follows is a rather detailed look at the origins and history of the IRGC, concluding with:
After decades of anti-Israeli actions by the Revolutionary Guard that spanned the globe — from Beirut to Buenos Aires — Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack in southern Israel was an attempt to restore the Axis’ power. Yet it had a domino effect: Hamas infrastructures were destroyed, Hezbollah was decimated, the Guards’ Syrian networks were exposed, its sympathetic regime collapsed, and the focus of attacks has now shifted onto the heart of this axis: the Tehran regime and its Revolutionary guards. What made this chain reaction possible, more than anything, was Russia’s inability to play a supporting role. Its structural weakness created a vacuum that has left its political and military chain of allies unsupported, paving the way for broader Israeli strikes on its regional command center, the IRGC. Because the Revolutionary guards had effectively become Russia’s regional arm and a tool of international disruption that has nothing to do with Iran’s national security. They are also closer to collapse than ever before Today the IRGC no longer has a credible mission to perform as the regime and revolution that gave it birth have lost legitimacy among Iranians, and the Axis of Resistance is all but gone. The institution that once claimed to defend the “oppressed” of the world could not even safeguard the lives of its senior commanders. All it has achieved after four decades of boastful activity has been to spread poverty, provoke the destruction of Iranian infrastructures, and fuel regional insecurity and internal instability. The Revolutionary Guard is not, as it has claimed, Iran’s protector. It is instead a structural flaw, if not a curse, and the greatest of burdens on the shoulders of the Iranian nation.
Then from the less reliable right-wing Telegraph, there is this still rather trenchant analysis of the current strategic situation:
Khamenei and his Guards are militarily defeated. The rest is up to Iranians Operation Rising Lion has inflicted on Iran the most grievous penalty possible in Middle Eastern culture: humiliation. And the ayatollahs’ attempts to restore honour have only led to even more humiliation. Their retaliation so far has been ineffectual. Three hundred and fifty ballistic missiles each containing half a ton of high explosives as well as more than 100 drones have killed 24 Israeli civilians and damaged or destroyed a few buildings. Each of these deaths is a tragedy, but this is hardly the devastation repeatedly promised by Khamenei and his henchmen following Israel’s pre-emptive attack. The IDF has shot down around 90 per cent of missiles fired from Iran and only about 5-10 per cent have hit residential areas. The sporadic missile attacks we have seen so far, only 30-60 in each barrage, were always far less likely to overwhelm Israeli air defences than a smaller number of mass strikes combined with drone swarms. IDF interdiction may have prevented hundreds being fired at a time, but it seems almost as if the Iranians have been trying to show strength to their own people rather than having any real hope of inflicting severe damage on Israel. They have a dire need to show such strength because all they have shown so far is weakness. Israel has total superiority over Iranian air space. IDF planes can fly as freely over Tehran as they can over Tel Aviv. The ayatollahs have been unable to protect even the upper levels of their military command, which has been decimated almost at a stroke. This is unprecedented in the annals of warfare. The same goes for some of the most important nuclear scientists who should have been among the most protected people in the country. Heavily guarded nuclear sites have been repeatedly struck, as has energy infrastructure. Substantial numbers of ballistic missiles and drones have been destroyed before they could be launched. Israeli special forces have been operating on the ground in Iran with impunity and the extent of intelligence penetration of the regime and its military seems breathtaking. An evacuation order from Israel is enough to see huge numbers of Tehran’s citizens on the move. In short, the regime has lost sovereignty over its own territory. Can it survive this and the even more powerful blows that are likely to come? Israel is a long way from the culminating point of its military domination. We have already seen protesters on the streets in large numbers, chanting “death to Khamenei” and “death to the IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps]”. Multiple car bombs have exploded near government buildings.
And to drive home that point, today the IDF took out the Iranian state TV for all to see, from the AP:
Israeli strike on Iranian state TV fills studio with dust and debris during live broadcast Dust and debris filled an Iranian state television studio and an anchor rushed off camera Monday when an Israeli strike hit during a live broadcast, an hour after Israel issued a warning for the area of Tehran where the station is located. Sahar Emami, an anchor at the Islamic Republic of Iran News Network, was seen hurrying off-camera as the screen behind her cut out. People on set were heard saying “Allahu akbar," the Arabic phrase for God is great. The broadcast quickly switched to pre-recorded programs. Soon, Emami came back live from another studio and was seen speaking with another anchor. Images showed smoke and flames in the sky. The station later said that the building was hit by four bombs. Israel’s defense minister took immediate credit for the attack. … Videos circulating on social media show that the IRINN building, known as “the glass building,” is still burning.
Plus, the new Iranian military commander, as reported by India Today:
Israel says it killed Iran's top military commander who took charge 4 days ago Israel's military on Tuesday claimed it had eliminated Major General Ali Shadmani, identifying him as Iran's wartime chief of staff and the country's most senior operational military commander at the time of his death. According to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), Shadmani was leading the Khatam-al Anbiya Central Headquarters — Iran's military emergency command — and was effectively overseeing both the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the regular armed forces. He had reportedly held the position for just four days before being killed in an Israeli airstrike. Shadmani was killed in an IAF strike in central Tehran, following precise intelligence, the military said. Iran has not confirmed nor denied the claim so far. Shadmani took over the role after his predecessor, Major General Gholam Ali Rashid, was killed last Friday in what Israel described as its opening salvo in the ongoing strikes against Iran. Labelling him the "war chief of staff", the IDF said Shadmani was considered the closest top military figure to Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, following Rashid's death, according to the Times of Israel.
In desperation, the IRGC floated the false story that Pakistan was prepared to nuke Israel if they used any nukes against Iran, but this was quickly disavowed by a panicked Pakistan as reported by another Indian publication, the Statesman:
Shaken Pakistan denies promising Iran of retaliatory nuclear action against Israel Hours after a top Iranian military official on Monday claimed that Pakistan has assured launching a nuclear attack against Israel if the latter dropped a nuclear bomb on Iran, a shaken Islamabad termed the news as “fake” which it said has even been carried by the British press. During an interview on Iranian television, Iranian General Mohsen Rezae claimed that Pakistan has expressed solidarity with Iran and urged the Muslim world to unite against Israel. The remarks were made amid intensifying hostilities between Israel and Iran. “Pakistan has assured us that if Israel uses a nuclear bomb on Iran, they will attack Israel with a nuclear bomb,” said Rezaei, a senior officer in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and a member of Iran’s National Security Council. However, Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif refuted the claims in a social media post. “Our nuclear capability is for the benefit of our people and defence of our country against the hostile designs of our enemies. We do not pursue hegemonic policies against our neighbours which are being amply demonstrated by Israel these days,” Asif posted on X.
Meanwhile, the non-Persian ethnic groups that make up nearly half of Iran’s total population are getting restless, led by the Kurds as reported in the Jerusalem Post:
Kurdish parties demand uprising against regime’s oppression in Iran On June 13, the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI) said,” As long as this regime remains in power, the situation will only deteriorate. Therefore, the first and most important prerequisite for saving Iran's citizens from this crisis, destruction, and darkness is to completely remove and end this regime.” PDKI is one of the oldest Kurdish parties, founded in 1945. It has played a key role in Kurdish politics for generations. This has included the Kurdish fight for rights and independence in the region. Iran has targeted the group’s leaders in the past. A smaller Kurdish group is the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK). This group is led by Hussein Yazdanpanah. He and the PAK played a key role in fighting ISIS in Iraq alongside other Kurdish Peshmerga fighters from the Kurdistan region of Iraq. His group put out a statement on June 13 saying, “As expected, the Revolutionary Guards' nuclear and missile bases, drone production centers, military bases, and commanders in their hidden holes were finally attacked by Israel this morning. “PAK insists on a nationwide uprising to end the regime or to reduce it in Tehran. It hopes that the people's uprising will end in 46 years and bring the judgment of crime and plunder.” The statement goes on to note that “as a result of these attacks, many of these institutions have been destroyed and a number of senior commanders of the Revolutionary Guards have been killed. Tehran is responsible for the war because of its attempts to produce nuclear and missile weapons, threats to regional stability and security, threats to destroy Israel, and the formation of terrorist groups and organizations in the Middle East.” The PAK also says that “In the past 100 years in general and the 46 years of the Islamic Republic in particular, the Iranian state has spent its public revenues on military, security and terrorist projects at the expense of starving the people; It has never succeeded in any foreign war and its entire war and security machinery has been in the service of suppressing the oppressed nations and preserving its non-native and colonial structure.” PAK has said it supports Israel’s attack on the regime’s military and security capabilities.
Additional analysis from Reuters about Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei’s increasingly tenuous grip on power in Tehran:
Iran leader Khamenei sees his inner circle hollowed out by Israel Iran's 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei cuts an increasingly lonely figure. Khamenei has seen his main military and security advisers killed by Israeli air strikes, leaving major holes in his inner circle and raising the risk of strategic errors, according to five people familiar with his decision-making process. One of those sources, who regularly attends meetings with Khamenei, described the risk of miscalculation to Iran on issues of defence and internal stability as "extremely dangerous". Several senior military commanders have been killed since Friday including Khamenei's main advisers from the Revolutionary Guards, Iran's elite military force: the Guards' overall commander Hossein Salami, its aerospace chief Amir Ali Hajizadeh who headed Iran's ballistic missile program and spymaster Mohammad Kazemi. These men were part of the supreme leader's inner circle of roughly 15-20 advisers comprising Guards commanders, clerics, and politicians, according to the sources who including three people who attend or have attended meetings with the leader on major issues and two close to officials who regularly attend. The loose group meets on an ad-hoc basis, when Khamenei's office reaches out to relevant advisers to gather at his compound in Tehran to discuss an important decision, all the people said. Members are characterised by unwavering loyalty to him and the ideology of the Islamic Republic, they added. … As he faces one of the most dangerous moments in the Islamic Republic's history, Khamenei finds himself further isolated by the recent losses other key advisers in the region as Iran's "Axis of Resistance" coalition has been hammered by Israel. Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, who was personally close to the Iranian leader, was killed by an Israeli airstrike in September last year and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was overthrown by rebels in December.
And then there is Trump’s grandiose claim about supposedly “vetoing” a strike against Khamenei, as reported in USA Today:
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