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Iran and Israel and the US at the crossroads today [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2025-06-17

I covered a lot of territory yesterday in "Suspicious flight of US air refueling tankers headed over the Atlantic." It seemed like ordinance and logistics were moving into place with two aircraft carrier task forces moving into place. Then today, I covered Trump's almost declaring war, but instead demanded unconditional surrender in Trump demands unconditional surrender by Iran and US can take out Khamenei at any time.

There's more news now. The Iranian navy has left their base at Bandar Abbas. From satellite photos, the ships wakes show them under full steam to get out of the harbor entrance. But they didn't go very far and then weighed anchor. Doesn't make much sense. They're still too close together leaving them open for attack.

Gulf of Oman with Strait of Hormuz at night.

Just south of the Strait of Hormuz, two oil tankers have collided and both are on fire. This could have happened because there is GPS jamming going on and ships AIS, Automatic Identification System, spoofing going on in the Strait and Gulf of Oman.

Another report said that one tanker was carrying 2 million gallons of oil and the second was empty, and the owner of one of the ships said the fire was out. But there is a an X post from the "National Guard" had to evacuate 24 crew members from one of the ships without any mention of the fire. Unknown if this is Iran's coast guard. Not clear from the conflicting reports.

There is reporting that Trump is going to give a "major speech."

The Times of Israel just happens to have an article on the GBU-57 30,000 lb bunker buster bombs, with a satellite picture of the Fordo nuclear site where all the important work is done 260 feet underground.

Fordo nuclear facility. Iran.

They seem to think the US is going to join in to destroy the facility. They do make a mistake in saying the only plane capable of carrying the bomb is the B-2. The B-52H can carry two of them with it's payload of 70,000 lbs. Maybe more. They claim the US Air Force tested two of the bombs being carried by the B-2, which is way beyond its rated payload of 40,000 lbs. Whatever, if one isn't enough, a second one, or more, going down that hole, would take care if it.

On the other hand, in an ABC News interview, Israeli Ambassador Leiter was a asked about the possibility of the US helping attack Fordo, he emphasized Israel has only asked the US for defensive help. "We have a number of contingencies...which will enable us to deal with Fordo. Not everything is a matter of, you know, taking to the skies and bombing from afar."

That's rather cryptic, but they were known to have gotten into the programming for centrifuges and running them amok to destroy them in the past. And you never know what Mossad could be doing.

Fake of Tel-Aviv

Along with everything real that's going on, there are also AI generated pictures and probably videos circulating. This one shows two towers in Tel-Aviv, which the BBC checked as being fake.

This one's from a combat simulator game.

Fake using computer game.

Propaganda is propaganda. It comes in all forms. This is a perfect opportunity for Iran to make up stuff to help bolster the populace. It isn't working too well. Inhabitants have been fleeing Tehran since Friday.

There is a bipartisan resolution in Congress to prevent Trump from declaring war. The fact that only Congress can declare war doesn't matter to Trump. It's sponsored by Rep. Ro Khanna and Rep. Thomas Massie, calling it a War Powers resolution. AOC, and Rashida Tlaib have signed on.

On Monday, Bernie Sanders intelroduced the "No War In Iran Act" (PDF) to remind Trump.

I would never trust an assessment solely made by Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, but she left no doubt that Iran was not building a nuclear bomb months ago. Trump ignored the facts put forth by 17 intelligence agencies that Russia had interfered in the 2016 election. This time he ignored current intelligence gathering on Iran.

On his trip back from the G7, he responded to questions about her assessment, "I don't care what she said." It was his view that Iran was very close to having a bomb. Most likely Trump is believing what Netanyahu is telling him instead of our own intelligence gathering. It said that Khamenei had not restarted the program even though they had the highly enriched uranium to make one.

Gabbard decided to fall in line and said after Trump's statement that "President Trump was saying the same thing I said." Nope, not the same thing at all.

In "Elon Musk turns on Starlink to help start a revolt in Iran," the lack of internet connectivity and Iran shutting down everything it could, Starlink terminals brought in by the black market and satellite internet for cellphones was getting around that. There are other problems occurring. Cyberattacks are hitting Iran's banking system. Some ATMs aren't giving out any money. Some just a little, and debit cards aren't working at all. Iran has deliberately shut down the ability to use VPNs to prevent information from outside to get in. Only the Iran National Information Network of government approved sites is working close to normal.

You've got Tucker Carlson and Steve Bannon saying that getting into a war with Iran is just like what happened with Iraq in 2003. Weapons of mass destruction that didn't exist. Made Muslims around the world hate us.

Trump does not appear to be going to delivering that "major speech." But he did talk to Netanyahu shortly after the briefing on Tuesday in the situation room. Trump has decided to close the US Embassy in Jerusalem from Wednesday through Friday.

Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran's last Shah, made some new posts on X about the situation in Iran. "The Islamic Republic has come to an end and is collapsing. What has begun is irreversible. The future is bright, and together we will turn the page of history. Now is the time to stand up; the time to reclaim Iran. May I be with you soon." Did he mean he wants to be the new Shah, or with the Islamic Republic removed, he could come home instead of being in exile?

At the same time, Iranian State TV, warned of "a surprise tonight that the world will remember for centuries." That does not sound good for anybody.

Tehran said that they launched 10 ballistic missiles that are nearly impossible to shoot down at Israel. Is this what state TV was talking about? While destructive, it doesn't fit the bill of "remember for centuries."

There is one more thing that Elon Musk could do. Ban the Ayatollah from X.

What qualifies for a ban on X these day? Is there anybody or bot doing the job anymore?

Everything is in a state of flux. Who makes the first bad move? Israel already has, and it keeps looking like the US is going to be dragged into it.

We can't go back, but it would have been better if we had actually finished the negotiating process Trump gave Iran 60 days to agree to a plan. Even Trump said negotiations were going well. Then on day 61, Israel attacks. Somewhere, an opportunity was missed. Somebody failed.

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