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Are we going to war? [1]

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Date: 2025-06-17

Israel has struck Iran. Iran has fired back. Now the two are in what is widely considered a hot war. Though Iraq and Syria lay between them making troop movements a likely impossibility, the use of proxy militaries like Hezbollah and sustained aerial and missile bombardments make it so that this is going to be a deadly conflict regardless.

Israel is going to be victorious. There is always a chance that Iran and Hezbollah could pull through, but Israel has a much larger GDP and has already established complete air dominance in less than half a a week. It may be a long time or next week and there may be a treaty or more likely a never real end to the conflict, but this will be a win for Israel. Unless Israel loses the support of the USA and a real military power such as Turkiye steps in, Israel is unmatched in its regional economic and military might.

These are all settled questions, what remains unsettled is whether or not America is going to be dragged into this war as well. There is credible evidence that we invaded Iraq at the behest of Israel and that Israel wishes to expand its borders vastly and build a lebensraum for the Jewish people by slaughtering Arabs. The Israel Lobby in America spearheaded by AIPAC and the ADL make sure that US politicians (especially neocon warhawks with investments in defense contractors) are perpetually in favor of war in the Middle East to defend our 'special ally' Israel. The USA under both Biden and Trump has vetoed every UN resolution to stop the genocide in Gaza and over decades has given hundreds of billions in military aid that has propped up their war machine for every conflict in which they have been ensnared.

Our alliance (though not fruitful for the US in any real way) is strong. Trump has accepted hundreds of thousands of dollars from AIPAC and in his first term made multiple moves against Iran in favor of Israel including blowing up the Iran-Nuclear Deal (the same deal which he is right now begging Iran to remake with him so that he can take the credit for solving a problem he made) and recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, a political affront to the very notion of a two-state solution.

In spite of all of these signs favoring Trump going to war with Iran for the sake of Israel, there is some hope. Trump lifted Syrian sanctions and has a good (albeit very corrupt) relationship with many Gulf States who are nominal Iran allies including Qatar and the UAE. Most importantly, Trump is a populist which means that at the end of the day his power comes from his popularity among the people and this is in this situation a boon. MAGA is anti-war. Prolific antisemitism plagues the far right which is the basis of Trump supporters (antisemitism is wrong and grotesque, criticism of Israel is not antisemitic but this conflation is common on the right wing making them anti-israel for the wrong reasons).

War with Iran is a horrible idea, we cannot afford it, it is unpopular, it could kill millions of innocents, destabilize a developing nation, perpetuate the genocide in Gaza and much more. Israel should not fight this war, but since they are they still have no need to involve the US its merely convenient for them. Their slaughter in Gaza could be slowed down, they don't have the heavy bombs required to destroy all nuclear facilities, they certainly don't have the Naval support necessary for an invasion and they don't want to risk their own lives when they could risk ours. This os an evil war, America should not be in this war, right and left wing alike agree that peace is preferable to war always and nobody who isn't paid by either Israel or the military industrial complex to peddle hate and propaganda want US strikes on Iran. It is not just wishful thinking as their is evidence that he might, but all we can do at this moment is hope that the Commander in Chief of all US armed forces, Donald J. Trump, does the right thing and tells Israel, Netanyahu and AIPAC to shove off and keep America out of their evil and genocidal war plans.

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