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Thin Ice, Cracking Fast: The End of America’s Lucky Streak [1]

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Date: 2025-06-16

In October 2022, I wrote a post here reflecting on James Fallows’ sobering question: is America a strong, resilient democracy—or have we just been ridiculously lucky?

Fallows’ essay, “A Lucky Country, on Thin Ice,” didn’t flinch. He laid out how much of our survival as a constitutional republic has depended not on the brilliance of the Founders or the strength of our institutions—but on dumb luck. Good presidents at the right time. Wise judges. A few bureaucrats or state officials standing between us and the abyss. And, yes, a terrifying number of “what ifs” that could’ve sunk us—if someone hadn’t acted, if a bullet had missed, if a ballot design had been clearer, if an FBI director had held his tongue.

It was a reminder that our systems aren’t fail-safe. They were never fail-safe. And two and a half years later, as we stand in the middle of 2025, that “thin ice” has started to crack.

This isn’t theoretical anymore. It’s not a warning. It’s a condition report. The Republican Party has gone fully authoritarian. The courts have gone rogue. Disinformation has flooded the zone. And the last remaining checks on power? They’re tired. Or gone. Or being dismantled in real time.

2022: Still Lucky, Just Barely

Back then, we were still afloat because of a handful of people: Brad Raffensperger in Georgia. Rusty Bowers in Arizona. Cassidy Hutchinson, a low-level aide with enough integrity to speak hard truths. DOJ officials like Jeffrey Rosen and Richard Donoghue, who said no to Trump’s push for a fake election fraud narrative. Ruby Freeman and Shaye Moss, who refused to be bullied out of doing their jobs.

They were the sandbags holding back the flood. Not the Constitution. Not the courts. Not Congress. Just people.

Fallows warned us: what if they hadn't been there? What if someone else had been in their place?

Now we know.

2025: The "What Ifs" Came True

In state after state, election deniers are now the ones running the show. Secretaries of state. County election boards. State legislatures with new laws giving them the power to toss out results they don’t like. Gerrymandering and voter suppression are back with a vengeance. Several states are trying to “reform” their elections so that the popular vote is, essentially, optional.

And the Supreme Court? It’s not a backstop. It’s a wrecking ball.

In the last few terms, they’ve:

Crushed environmental protections under the banner of “major questions.”

Gutted what remained of the Voting Rights Act.

Nuked affirmative action.

Allowed open carry everywhere.

Flirted with the fringe “independent state legislature” theory.

Turned tribal sovereignty into a punchline.

They’ve even hinted that state legislatures could just ignore election results if they feel like it.

This isn’t a Court. It’s the Federalist Society’s fantasy league. And no one’s holding them accountable. Not Congress. Not Chief Justice Roberts. And certainly not the ethics rules they apparently write for themselves in invisible ink.

The Media Isn’t Saving Us Either

Remember when we thought media malpractice peaked with “But her emails”? We were so young.

Now we have deepfakes, synthetic anchors, AI-written campaign smears, and billionaire-owned platforms where truth goes to die. Trust is shot. Local journalism is almost extinct. Meanwhile, the far right has built its own reality ecosystem—Fox, Newsmax, “FreedomCast,” you name it—where Trump is a prophet, liberals are pedophiles, and climate change is a Chinese hoax.

Fact-checking is a joke when people can curate their own facts. Conspiracy is the currency. And every attempt at reform gets framed as “censorship.”

Rule of Law? More Like Rule of Vibes

We now have sitting lawmakers who helped plot January 6. We have indicted former officials running for re-election. We have open defiance of subpoenas, glorification of political violence, and a base that sees prosecutions not as justice but as martyrdom.

And let’s not forget: Trump is still out there. Indicted. Twice impeached. And still pulling the strings of a party that has completely abandoned democracy.

And it’s not just him. His allies are back in statehouses, on the ballot, or lurking behind the scenes—waiting for the next crisis to push a little harder.

The Institutions Didn’t Save Us—People Did

But here’s the kicker: we’ve had no major structural reforms since 2020. Nothing meaningful to protect voting rights. No expansion of the courts. No reining in of dark money. No new ethics laws. No statehood for D.C. or Puerto Rico. No Electoral College reform. Barely a whisper about fixing the Senate or abolishing the filibuster.

We had a window. We didn’t use it. And the other side? They never stop using theirs.

So, What Now?

If the last two years have taught us anything, it’s that American democracy doesn’t collapse in a single moment. It dies slowly, one norm at a time, while people convince themselves it can’t happen here.

Well, it is happening here. And unless we build structures that don’t depend on luck—structures that can actually withstand bad actors—we’re just waiting for the next breach to sink us.

We’re out of margin for error. No more saving throws. No more lucky breaks.

But here’s the thing: we still have agency. We still have organizers, voters, watchdogs, state reps, activists, and everyday people who give a damn. That’s what saved us before. That’s what could save us again. But this time, they need backup—not just gratitude.

They need policy. Reform. Resources. And a Democratic Party that doesn’t play defense while the other side burns the rulebook.

We can’t skate on luck anymore.

Time to build a better bridge before the ice is gone.

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