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Canvassing Minnesota: Highly-Contested Open Senate Seat (& Swing Cong District) [1]

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Date: 2025-06-12

We are now canvassing in 15 of Hope Springs from Field PAC [dated website, to be updated in the Fall] target states: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia & Wisconsin. We are fairly stretched for an all-volunteer outfit but we still hope to expand into one more Congressional District and (apparently) one more state. Details on that latter (the added state was a new suggestion from organizers and statewide candidate in that state).

We started off the year with no plans to return to Minnesota. But Tina Smith chose to forego running for re-election, and Minnesota volunteers decided to renew the effort. Perhaps because Republicans in the state were crowing about Smith’s decision.

Saturday was our fifth canvass in Minnesota this cycle. Volunteers were initially surprised when we started, but any shock has warn off. It’s not as blue as some would prefer to think. And we are settling down to the fact that there’s a race (several, actually) to be won.

As Nathan Gonzales notes:

Vice President Kamala Harris’ 51-47 percent victory over Donald Trump in 2024 masks the challenge Republicans have statewide. Democrats’ advantage in Minnesota has been fairly stable over the last decade. They had an 8-point Baseline advantage after the 2014 elections compared to a 7-point advantage today. But Minnesota is not overwhelmingly Democratic and the open seat creates uncertainty. So we’re changing our rating from Solid Democratic to Battleground.

Minnesota Republicans have not won a statewide race in nearly two decades, although they have come within a whisker of doing so. Almost immediately after the 2024 election results came in, Royce White, the GOP’s losing nominee against Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) and a former professional basketball player, announced another Senate run. Some Republicans think he will be a strong candidate (although he only raised $200,000 in new contributions last quarter). This is a wide-open primary, though, on both sides:

347 volunteers came out to knock on doors in Minnesota on Saturday. We knocked on 25,226 doors and volunteers talked to 2,043 voters. 1,307 of those voters answered questions to at least part of the Issues Survey.

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