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Renewed interest in the two-state solution [1]
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Date: 2025-06-05
A two-state solution is gaining momentum again for Israel and the Palestinians. Does it have a chance of success?
This illustrated article was reprinted June 5, 2025 in Informed Comment, the blog of University of Michigan history professor Juan Cole. First printed in The Conversation, the article begins:
“As Israel’s devastating war in Gaza has ground on, the two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was thought to be “dead”. Now, it is showing signs of life again.”
Written by Dr. Andrew Thomas, a lecturer in Middle East studies at Deakin University in Australia, the article says French President Emmanuel Macron is reportedly pressing other European nations to jointly recognize a Palestinian state at a UN conference in mid-June. The conference will be focused on achieving a two-state solution, which Macron calls a “political necessity.” Dr. Thomas adds that “Australia has reaffirmed its view that recognition of Palestine should be a way of building momentum towards a two-state solution.” He also reports that
during Macron’s visit to Indonesia in late May, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto made a surprising pledge to recognize Israel if it allowed for a Palestinian state.
Dr. Thomas points out that Indonesia is one of about 28 nations that do not currently recognize Israel, while about 46 nations do not recognize a Palestinian state, including France, Australia, the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan and South Korea.
Dr. Thomas says the UN conference on June 17-20 co-sponsored by France and Saudi Arabia wants to go “beyond reaffirming principles” and “achieve concrete results” towards a two-state solution. Dr. Thomas asks:
Why is the policy gaining traction again now? And does it have a greater chance of success? Most countries, including the US, have supported the two-state solution in principle for decades. However, the political will from all parties has faded in recent years.
Dr. Thomas explains that the two-state solution would create a sovereign Palestinian state alongside the Israeli state. He notes that there have been several failed attempts to enact the policy over recent decades, such as the Oslo Accords in the early 1990s, and recently the two-state solution has been looking “less likely by the day.”
The Trump administration’s decision in 2017 to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and move the US embassy there signaled the US was moving away from its role as mediator. Then, several Arab states agreed to normalize relations with Israel in the the Abraham Accords, without Israeli promises to move towards a two-state solution.
Dr. Thomas analyzes the effect of the Hamas attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023 and the subsequent Israeli war on Gaza. He finds they have had “ a somewhat contradictory effect on the overarching debate.”
On the one hand, they ‘substantially set back the legitimacy of the Palestinian self-determination movement in some quarters on the world stage” but on the other hand “it’s also become clear the status quo — the continued Israeli occupation of Gaza and the West Bank following the end of a brutal war — is not tenable for either Israeli security or Palestinian human rights.”
Dr. Thomas adds that the breakdown of the most recent ceasefire between Israel and Hamas with the return of heavy Israeli ground operations in May and reports of mass Palestinian starvation have “only served to further isolate the Israeli government in the eyes of its peers.”
Once-steadfast supporters of Israel’s actions have become increasingly frustrated by a lack of clear strategic goals in Gaza. And many now seem prepared to ignore Israeli wishes and pursue Palestinian recognition.
But Dr. Thomas asks how likely this is in reality. “There is certainly more political will than there was before, but also several important roadblocks.”
First and foremost is the war in Gaza. It’s obvious this will need to end. Beyond that, the political authority in both Gaza and Israel remains an issue. The countries now considering Palestinian recognition, such as France and Australia, have expressly said Hamas cannot play any role in governing a future Palestinian state.
Dr. Thomas reports less than half of Gazans support returning Gaza to Palestinian Authority control. “This means a future Palestinian state would likely require new leadership.” Moreover, in Israel there is “almost no political will for a two-state solution.”
In early May, the Israeli Security Cabinet approved a plan for Israel to indefinitely occupy parts of Gaza. The government also just approved its largest expansion of settlements in the West Bank in decades. The total population of Israeli settlers is more than 700,000 in both East Jerusalem and the West Bank. And it’s been increasing at a faster rate since the election of the Netanyahu government in 2022.
Dr. Thomas says: “The more settlement that occurs, the more complicated the boundaries of a future Palestinian state become.”
He also says recent polls show that only 40% of Palestinians support the two-state solution, while only 26% of Israelis believe a Palestinian state can “coexist peacefully” alongside Israel. However, Thomas believes “none of these challenges makes the policy impossible.”
The unpopularity of the two-state solution locally is more a reflection of previous failures than it is of future negotiations. A power-sharing agreement in Northern Ireland was similarly unpopular in the 1990s, but peace was achieved through bold political leadership involving the US and European Union.
Dr. Thomas concludes that because ”the international community does appear to be reaching a political tipping point on the two-state solution, momentum could start building again.”
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Note: As of June 2025, more than 140 of the 193 United Nations member states recognize the State of Palestine, most from the Global South, the Middle East, Asia, Africa, and Latin America. European states that recognize Palestine include Ireland, Norway, Spain, Sweden and some East European nations.
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