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Ukraine Invasion Day 1,198: more post-Spiderweb damage assessments [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2025-06-04

Russian forces conducted a series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of June 3 and 4 and during the day on June 4.

The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 95 Shahed and decoy drones from the directions of Kursk and Oryol cities; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; and occupied Cape Chauda, Crimea.[84] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces shot down 36 drones and that 25 drones were “lost” or suppressed by Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) systems. Ukrainian officials reported that the drones struck residential areas and civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, Zaporizhia, and Donetsk oblasts.[85] Kharkiv City Mayor Ihor Terekhov reported that Russian forces also launched two missiles against Kharkiv City overnight on June 3 and 4.[86] The Ukrainian Ground Forces reported that Russian forces conducted a missile strike against a Ukrainian training ground in Poltava Oblast during the day on June 4.[87] understandingwar.org/... Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces shot down 36 drones and that 25 drones were “lost” or suppressed by Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) systems.

Putin also used his June 4 phone call with Trump to further falsely portray Ukraine as an illegitimate negotiating partner that is uninterested in peace. Ushakov stated that Putin talked with Trump about the May 31 train derailments in Russia, the June 1 Ukrainian strikes against Russian military air bases, and the June 2 Ukrainian-Russian negotiations in Istanbul.[6] Putin alleged to Trump that Ukraine was responsible for the train derailments. Ushakov claimed that Russia "did not succumb" and attended the Istanbul negotiations despite Ukraine's "provocations." Putin's statements to Trump are also likely aimed at distracting from Russia's own disinterest in negotiations and continued preparations for a prolonged war effort so as to avoid possible future US sanctions by painting Ukraine as a bad actor.[7] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to express Ukraine's willingness to negotiate with Russia to establish a just and lasting peace. Zelensky stated on June 4 that the Ukrainian delegation to Istanbul has not received a response to the ceasefire proposal it presented during the June 2 Ukrainian-Russian talks.[8] Zelensky also proposed that Ukraine and Russia implement a comprehensive ceasefire until Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Zelensky in order to demonstrate a mutual commitment to de-escalation.[9] Zelensky stated that Ukraine is ready to negotiate with Russia any day and that Russia can choose the location of negotiations. Zelensky said that he is willing to meet with Putin even without a ceasefire in order to prove Ukraine's willingness to negotiate. understandingwar.org/... x x YouTube Video

x x YouTube Video At 4:44 a.m. on Tuesday, June 3, an underwater blast rocked the Kerch Bridge, Russia’s lifeline to occupied Crimea, as the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) executed a daring naval special warfare strike. The explosion detonated beneath the rail bridge’s mid-span abutments, targeting reinforced concrete pile bundles critical to its stability. The attack, likely delivered by a Marichka multi-mission, long-range Uncrewed Underwater Vehicle (UUV), has left the 18-kilometer (11-mile) bridge – a symbol of Putin’s imperial grip – reeling, with logistics to Crimea severely disrupted. The previous night’s Ukrainian drone and missile bombardment across occupied Crimea, part of Operation Spiderweb, set the stage. The operation, which hammered Russian airfields, depots, and naval assets from Sevastopol to Dzhankoi, inflicted billions in damage and overwhelmed Moscow’s defenses. www.kyivpost.com/... Russian Tu-95 strategic bombers at Belaya Airbase on June 4, 2025, after Ukrainian drone strike. Source: Satellite image ©2025 Maxar Technologies. Ukrainian and Western officials and open-source analysts continue to clarify the battlefield damage resulting from Ukraine's "Operation Spider's Web" long-range drone strike series against Russian air bases on June 1. Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) published new footage on June 4 from Operation Spider's Web showing Ukrainian drones approaching the wings, sides, tops, and underbellies of Russian fixed-wing aircraft at various airfields.[10] The SBU reported that the footage shows first-person view (FPV) drones striking A-50 airborne early warning and control (AWACS) aircraft, Tu-95 and Tu-160 strategic bombers, Tu-22 supersonic bombers, An-12 transport aircraft, and Il-78 aerial refueling tankers at Belaya Air Base in Irkutsk Oblast; Olenya Air Base in Murmansk Oblast; Dyagilevo Air Base in Ryazan Oblast; and Ivanovo Air Base in Ivanovo Oblast. Some of the clips in the video show aircraft on fire. The SBU stated that Ukrainian drones struck 41 Russian aircraft. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the SBU stated that Russia will be unable to restore half of the Russian aircraft that Ukraine struck or that it will take Russia years to restore them.[11] A senior NATO official reported to Ukrainian news outlet Suspilne that Operation Spider's Web damaged 40 Russian aircraft and confirmed that the operation destroyed 10 to 13 aircraft.[12] The official also stated that Russia may respond to the loss of its strategic bombers, which Russia uses to launch cruise missiles against Ukraine, by adjusting strike packages to include more drones and ballistic missiles and fewer cruise missiles. Russian opposition outlet Meduza reported that a NATO official stated that Russian forces previously used the destroyed aircraft to launch over 3,000 cruise missiles that have struck critical infrastructure and civilian targets in Ukraine since February 2022.[13] Maxar satellite imagery collected on June 4 indicates that Ukrainian drone strikes destroyed at least two Tu-22 bombers and three Tu-95 bombers at Belaya Airbase (see embedded imagery below). Ukrainian open-source intelligence (OSINT) group AviVector posted satellite imagery on June 4 that indicates that Ukrainian drones destroyed four Tu-95MS bombers and one An-12 transport aircraft at Olenya Airbase.[14] AviVector assessed that Ukrainian forces destroyed seven Tu-95MS bombers, four Tu-22M3 bombers, and one An-12 transport aircraft and likely damaged a Tu-95MS bomber at Olenya and Belaya airbases. understandingwar.org/... A note to our Russian readers--Ukrainian intelligence reports that it has penetrated the entirety of the computer and IT systems of the Russian Tupolev Design bureau. All the aircraft company’s design, R&D and administrative systems have been hacked and copied. https://x.com/ChuckPfarrer x x YouTube Video

Ukrainian special services reportedly used artificial intelligence (AI) to direct drones during Operation Spider's Web. The SBU stated on June 4 that it used "autonomous artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms and manual operator intervention" to conduct the June 1 strikes against Russian air bases.[15] The SBU stated that some drones lost signal during flight and switched to performing their missions using AI along a preplanned route. ISW recently assessed that Russia and Ukraine have demonstrated some integration of limited AI capabilities into drone operations but have not deployed them at scale on the battlefield.[16] Promises of an immediate AI and machine learning (ML) drone revolution are premature as of June 2025, even in the wake of Operation Spider's Web, given that both Russian and Ukrainian forces will need to allocate more time, testing, and investment to deploy these drones on the frontlines en masse .

Ukraine’s Western allies continue to provide military aid to Ukraine. The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (UK MoD) announced on June 4 that the UK will invest a total of £350 billion (roughly $474 billion) to provide Ukraine with 100,000 drones in 2025 — a tenfold increase from the 10,000 drones that the UK provided Ukraine with in 2024.[17] The UK MoD stated that the UK has already provided Ukraine with 140,000 rounds of artillery ammunition in 2025. The UK will also allocate an additional £247 million (roughly $335 million) for the training of Ukrainian forces in the UK through the Interflex training project and will contribute £40 million (roughly $52 million) to materiel procurement efforts within the NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine (NSATU) mission.[18] German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced during a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (the Ramstein format) on June 4 that the first Ukrainian long-range weapons system produced in Ukraine with German financial backing could enter service with the Ukrainian military within ”just a few weeks.”[19] Key Takeaways: The Kremlin is fixating on recent train derailments in Russia in order to further long-standing Kremlin narratives claiming that Ukraine is an illegitimate negotiating partner that is uninterested in peace, likely to distract the broader information space from recent Kremlin officials' statements about Russia's own disinterest in a negotiated settlement.

Putin also used his June 4 phone call with Trump to further falsely portray Ukraine as an illegitimate negotiating partner that is uninterested in peace.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to express Ukraine's willingness to negotiate with Russia to establish a just and lasting peace.

Ukrainian and Western officials and open-source analysts continue to clarify the battlefield damage resulting from Ukraine's "Operation Spider's Web" long-range drone strike series against Russian air bases on June 1.

Ukrainian special services reportedly used artificial intelligence (AI) to direct drones during Operation Spider's Web.

Ukraine’s Western allies continue to provide military aid to Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk. Russian forces recently advanced in Sumy Oblast and near Toretsk.

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