(C) Daily Kos
This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered.
. . . . . . . . . .



Iowa Canvassing Kickoff: A Senate seat and 3 Congressional Districts at stake [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2025-06-04

In 2024, Hope Springs from Field PAC [dated website] responded to a request from the Biden campaign to test the findings in public polling that Minnesota and New Hampshire were "now in play." We quickly organized, using the resources we had, to do so within a week. That didn't work out so well for the Biden campaign, and i even had a campaign staffer sit with me for two Saturdays watching the numbers come in. But that is history.

A month ago, we got a similar request from House Democrats. The DCCC has targeted 3 seats in Iowa and, since "these guys will do anything" (not really sure how to take that), can we organize volunteers in that state.

It took longer -- didn't seem as immediate as the Biden campaign request -- but several of us had been in Iowa for Barack back in 2007, so it was definitely doable. On Saturday, 379 volunteers came out to canvass in 8 locations in Iowa — all veterans of the Obama or Dean campaigns.

As you can see from the 2022 redistricted map, all IA-01 is now considered a toss-up district, while IA-03 is a lean Republican and IA-02 is considered a likely Republican seat (IA-04 is a solid GOP district). Although we plan to include IA-02 this Summer, Saturday we were only able to canvass in IA-01 and 03. At this point, our biggest challenge is organizers (this is the limitation of being an all-volunteer organization, something that will have to change).

But the takeaway here is that these plans were in motion before Iowa Senator Ernst told a “contentious” town hall audience “Well, we all are going to die,” in response to concerns that Medicaid cuts would lead to more deaths. Suddenly — and this was the feeling among many of the volunteers who turned out in Iowa — the 2026 Senate seat could be in play. Iowa voters reacted accordingly. We found this to be true at their doors on Saturday.

Sen. Joni Ernst’s (R-Iowa) recent controversial remarks on Medicaid are threatening to become a political liability for the incumbent as she faces reelection next year. [...] While the second-term senator has been a formidable candidate and will benefit from the conservative lean of her state, some Republicans acknowledge the comments could follow her into the midterms. “It is very, very early, but there is no question that that comment from Sen. Ernst will be on Iowa airwaves for the better part of the next 15 months,” said one Iowa Republican strategist. The election handicapper Sabato’s Crystal Ball on Tuesday shifted Ernst’s race slightly toward Democrats — from safe to likely Republican — citing her recent comments and a new challenge from Democratic state Rep. JD Scholten, who said the senator’s remarks spurred him to jump in. Another GOP strategist acknowledged the risk posed by Ernst’s comments but added the political climate next year is going to ultimately have a greater impact on the race.

So, the timing was, well, fortuitous? The Crystal Ball has changed their rating for the Iowa Senate race from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. Their reasoning, though, had more to do with J.D. Scholten’s entry into the race.

Aside from having a credible opponent, Ernst could face a more challenging environment than she faced in either of her previous two elections. In 2014, she won as part of a broader GOP wave—and she got help from a gaffe-prone opponent. Six years later, she won reelection as Trump was carrying Iowa by a strong margin (Ernst ran a little bit behind Trump). It’s possible that 2026 could be like 2018: Iowa did not have a Senate election that year, but Democrats did end up winning three of the state’s four U.S House seats that year, and we suspect that if Iowa had had a Senate election, it likely at least would have been close. So, with that in mind, we’re moving Iowa’s Senate race from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. This puts the Senate race in the same category as the state’s open-seat gubernatorial race, where Democrats recently got their strongest possible recruit, state Auditor Rob Sand.

But that isn’t the only thing weighing on Iowans. In a somewhat related note — the reason Ernst stepped in it, really — was the Issue of Medicare and Medicaid in the Budget/Reconciliation Bill currently before the Senate. Ernst isn’t one of the Senate’s “Medicaid moderates” that Politico called:

The surprising coalition of GOP senators — from conservative Josh Hawley of Missouri to centrist Susan Collins of Maine — has considerable sway over the fate of the megabill and has been vocalizing concerns about the 10.3 million people — many residing in red states — who could lose coverage under Medicaid.

As you can see from this NY Times graphic, IA CDs 02,03 and 04 have between a 20% to 30% of their Share of population enrolled in Medicaid:

On Monday, State Rep. J.D. Scholten joined the Democratic primary alongside Democrat Nathan Sage and State Sen. Zach Wahls to challenge Ernst. “Ernst also faces three long shot primary challengers on the right.” But that isn’t what has gotten Iowan Democrats excited.

In January, Iowa Democrats flipped the state’s 35th Senate District, which Trump won by 21 points in November. In March, Democrats overperformed in the special election for the 100th House District. “It’s still a high bar for Democrats trying to win statewide,” said Iowa Democratic strategist Jeff Link, but “video clips like this have a way of just hanging around.”

Hope Springs from Field PAC began knocking on doors again on March 1st. We target Democrats and unaffiliated voters with a systematic approach that reminds them not only that Democrats care, but Democrats are determined to deliver the best government possible to all Americans. The voters we talk to continue to tell us they come away more invested in governance and feel more favorably towards Democrats in general because of our approach.

Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:

[END]
---
[1] Url: https://dailykos.com/stories/2025/6/4/2325527/-Iowa-Canvassing-Kickoff-A-Senate-seat-and-3-Congressional-Districts-at-stake?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=latest_community&pm_medium=web

Published and (C) by Daily Kos
Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified.

via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds:
gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/