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Ukraine Invasion Day 1,197: Kerch Bridge damaged by UKR weapon [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2025-06-03

Russian forces conducted a series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of June 2 to 3.

The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 112 Shahed and decoy drones from the directions of Kursk and Oryol cities; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; and occupied Cape Chauda, Crimea. [78] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 60 drones and that 15 drones were “lost” or suppressed by Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) systems. Ukrainian officials reported that the strikes hit residential areas and civilian infrastructure in Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa cities. [79]

SBU agents reportedly attached explosives to the bridge's concrete pillars, which were detonated earlier this morning, damaging it.

Ukraine struck the Kerch Strait Bridge on June 3 for the third time since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) reported that SBU agents mined the underwater support pillars of the Kerch Strait Bridge and detonated the equivalent of 1,100 kilograms of TNT at 0444 on June 3. [7] The SBU reported that the operation took several months to plan and execute and stated that this is the third time that Ukraine has conducted an operation against the bridge. The SBU reported that the structural integrity of the bridge is in critical condition. The SBU released an image of the bridge which indicates that the explosion did not damage the roadway, though the force of the explosion threw structural elements onto the roadway. Geolocated footage published on June 3 shows an explosion at the base of the Kerch Strait Bridge. [8] Russian opposition outlets Sota and Astra and Russian milbloggers circulated footage indicating that Ukraine conducted a naval drone strike against the bridge around 1500 on June 3, though it is unclear if the strike caused damage to the structure. [9] Ukrainian Navy Spokesperson Captain Third Rank Dmytro Pletenchuk stated that damage to the Kerch Strait Bridge undermines Russia’s ability to resupply Russian units and facilities in Crimea. [10] The Kerch Strait Bridge is a critical Russian logistics route, and Russian forces heavily defend the bridge with layered air defense, anti-sabotage measures, and personnel who monitor surface and underwater activity. [11] Russian sources claimed that authorities temporarily halted traffic across the bridge, but later claimed that traffic resumed. [12] Russian state media and the Russian government have not responded to the strike as of this publication.

understandingwar.org/...

A-50

Western officials and open-source analysts continue to clarify the battlefield damage following the Ukrainian long-range drone strike series (Operation Spider Web) on June 1. Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yurii Ihnat told Ukrainian outlet Ukrainska Pravda on June 2 that Ukrainian officials estimated about 10 to 12 of Russia's 19 Tu-160 bombers and 36 of Russia's 57 Tu-95 bombers were operational prior to Ukraine’s June 1 strikes on Russian airbases. [13] Bloomberg reported on June 2 that a senior Western official stated that Ukrainian special services likely destroyed or damaged at least seven Tu-95 bombers and four Tu-22 bombers during the June 1 strike. [14] Bloomberg also assessed that Russia will likely struggle to repair and replace aircraft damaged in the June 1 strike as its strategic aviation fleet relies on critical Western components that Russia has failed to source in the wake of Western sanctions. The New York Times (NYT) reported on June 3 that Western officials and military analysts assessed that Ukrainian special services likely destroyed or damaged six Tu-95 bombers, four Tu-22M bombers, and one A-50 airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft, and that Ukrainian special services may have destroyed or severely damaged up to 20 Russian strategic aircraft during the strike. [15] Ukraine-based open-source intelligence organization Frontelligence Insight assessed on June 3 that satellite imagery and open-source analysis indicate that Ukrainian special services likely destroyed or damaged 11 bombers of various types and one An-12 transport aircraft. [16] Frontelligence noted that publicly available satellite imagery has yet to confirm reporting that Ukrainian special services destroyed or damaged over 20 bombers. Ukrainian military observer Tatarigami and journalists from the Telegraph and Insider stated on June 3 that Ukrainian special services shared a video of Ukrainian drones striking at least two A-50 airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft and that Ukraine may release this video soon. [17] ISW has not observed the video’s publication as of the time of this report but will continue to monitor for additional information.

understandingwar.org/…

Russia and Ukraine are engaged in an active technological race to develop and deploy drones with artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) capabilities.

1. Technological breakthroughs in drone warfare require the development and integration of both AI and ML capabilities. Russia and Ukraine have been increasingly focusing on developing drones with machine vision capabilities since at least mid-2023.

2. Russia and Ukraine both encountered challenges in developing and applying drones with machine learning capabilities to the frontlines in Ukraine in 2024 and early 2025, instead pivoting to scaling the use of fiber-optic drones.

3. Russia and Ukraine have demonstrated some integration of limited AI capabilities into drones as of May 2025, but mostly are fielding these capabilities and have not deployed them at scale on the battlefield.

4. Russia’s further development of AI/ML drones is in part predicated on Russia’s ability to create a joint situational awareness and battlefield management system.

5. Russia’s centralized approach to drone innovation and production may inhibit its efforts to pioneer the development of AI/ML drones.

6. A lack of investment and immediate combat needs, on the other hand, are impacting Ukraine’s development of AI/ML drones.

7. Promises of an immediate AI/ML drone revolution are premature as of June 2025, given that both Russian and Ukrainian forces will need to allocate more time, testing, and investment to deploy these drones on the frontlines en masse.

The Battlefield AI Revolution Is Not Here Yet: The Status of Current Russian and Ukrainian AI Drone Efforts

Russia continues to produce and stockpile missiles and drones to strike Ukraine, demonstrating Russia's continued commitment to winning the war through military means. Ukrainian outlet New Voice (NV) reported on June 3, citing Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR), that Russian forces had stockpiled over 13,000 ballistic, cruise, and other missiles as of mid-May 2025, including: almost 600 Iskander-M ballistic missiles, over 100 Kinzhal hypersonic ballistic missiles, almost 300 Kh-101 cruise missiles, over 400 Kalibr cruise missiles, up to 300 Kh-22/32 cruise missiles, about 700 Oniks cruise missiles and Zirkon anti-ship missiles, about 60 North Korean-produced KN-23 ballistic missiles, and about 11,000 S-300/400 air defense missiles. [18] NV reported that the GUR also estimated that Russia can produce roughly 150–200 missiles per month, including: 60 to 70 Iskander-Ms, 10 to 15 Kinzhals, 20 to 30 Kh-101s, 25 to 30 Kalibrs, up to 10 Kh-32s, and 20 to 30 total Oniks and Zirkon missiles. Russia had been launching increasingly large strike packages against Ukraine containing missiles prior to June 1, and Ukraine's June 1 strikes targeting Russian airfields and bombers will degrade Russia's ability to conduct further large air-launched cruise missile strikes against Ukraine. Ihnat told Ukrainska Pravda that the June 1 strikes did not destroy all of Russia's strategic bombers and that Russia retains the ability to strike Ukraine with missiles launched from strategic bombers. [19] Ihnat noted that roughly half of all Russian long range strike drones launched against Ukraine are decoys, while the other half are real Shahed drones. Shahed drones have long dominated Russian strike packages, and Russian forces have recently been using more ground-launched ballistic missiles than air-launched cruise missiles. ISW continues to assess that Russian efforts to increase domestic drone and missile production and ongoing adaptation of strikes packages are likely part of a broader effort to prepare for a long war in Ukraine and possibly a future war against NATO. [20]

understandingwar.org/...

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