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Trump's "Best Offers" [1]
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Date: 2025-06-03
Tomorrow, Trump has asked all of his trade partners to tell him their "best offer". So, while I am waiting for the Jays to come back from 6 down to thump Philly, I thought about how to handicap it. As I see it, there are four general response strategies that might emerge:
The Craven Cave - This is Trump's wish and expectation. Each trading partner will bend the knee and offer a juicy concession that Trump can use to crow to his MAGA base.
The Curved Cave - The trading partners respond with seemingly genuine, but ultimately confusing "concessions" that are really not much at all. Think of it as painting a curveball low and inside and getting him to whiff at it.
The Fish Hook - The trading partners conspire to toss Trump a carefully choreographed and weird mix of responses that have him flopping around like a fish that has just been pulled onto the dock. Some concede on steel, while slapping tariffs on agricultural products. Some concede on construction equipment, while imposing bans on US services. Together the "concessions" combine to create total chaos in US trade calculations. Whatever he offers as threats or concessions to one party totally contradicts what he must offer to another. He gets a big headache and American industry becomes even more twisted in knots.
The Michael Corleone - "I tell you my offer ... it is NOTHING!". This comes from ALL (or at least most) of the big partners. They have been working behind the scenes for months to organize a giant raspberry. Worse, they ALL have a nasty lineup of counter actions that will collectively put a real hurt on America.
My handicapping:
Craven Cave (less than 5%) - Caving to Trump will just make him hungry to do it again on other issues. So it won't work anyway and it will only encourage him. One or two cowardly countries might try it, but none of the big fish.
Curved Cave (10-20%) - Same problem as the Craven Cave, plus when Trump figures out he has been had, he will go batshit and make everything even worse (if that is possible).
Fish Hook (25 to 30%) - This is actually my personal favorite because he is too dumb to grasp its subtlety. It will be wonderful theater. I just wonder if the trading partners have had enough time to properly game this out.
Michael Corleone (over 50%) - If the trading partners have been as busy behind the scenes as I suspect, this is the play I bet on. It will take the flopping fish and use it to slap him right in the kisser. If they all work together and hit hard enough, it will burn his tariff strategy to cinders.
Place your bets (with curved money of course).
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