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How did Harris lose 2024? Plus, Trump’s FAA chaos spooks voters [1]

['Daily Kos Staff']

Date: 2025-05-25

Survey Says is a weekly column rounding up three of the most important polling trends or data points you need to know about. You’ll also find data-based updates on past Daily Kos reporting, plus a vibe check on a trend that’s driving politics.

How Trump beat Harris

A major new report provides fresh insights into the 2024 presidential electorate that enabled Donald Trump to defeat Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.

After every even-year election, the Democratic data firm Catalist releases an in-depth analysis of the electorate—integrating voter files, census data, polling, and modeling—to better understand who turned out, who changed their votes, and where they shifted.

In its latest report, Catalist finds that Harris lost about 2 percentage points of support compared with Joe Biden in the 2020 election. And for the first time in the firm’s data, less than 50% of new voters—a group that typically is younger and more diverse—supported the Democratic nominee.

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Here’s how that played out on the ground.

The 2024 electorate was 3 points less white than it was in 2012, and voters ages 18 to 29 accounted for 15% of the 2024 electorate, 1 point less than in 2020. However, those younger voters also didn’t assist Democrats the way they once did, because that coalition is now more receptive to Republicans.

Men of color, for example, swung hard toward Trump. Harris underperformed Biden by 6 points among men overall, but the decline was even sharper among Latino men (-12) and Black men (-8). While women provided Harris with similar margins compared with Biden, she lost ground with Asian women (-3) and young Latino voters (-12). Meanwhile, Harris failed to improve on Biden’s national numbers with Black women, a critical Democratic bloc.

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The 2024 electorate also had a greater share of habitual voters than in either of the previous two presidential elections. And while less frequent voters comprised a smaller share of the electorate last year, they broke for Trump, with Harris underperforming Biden among those who had voted in just one to three of the past four elections (2022, 2020, 2018, and 2016).

All of these issues—and more—are why we find ourselves embroiled in Trump’s chaos yet again.

FAA chaos fuels public fears

Flying gets a bad rap these days—and honestly, it’s not hard to see why.

Since January’s deadly crash near Washington, D.C., the Trump administration has dodged accountability for aviation issues, and while it may be trying to staff up on air traffic controllers, the Federal Aviation Administration is also shedding staff.

The result is a growing sense among voters that flying isn’t safe anymore. According to the latest Civiqs poll for Daily Kos, 71% of registered voters believe air travel is less safe now than it was five years ago. That includes a striking 85% of Democrats and 55% of Republicans, suggesting this is a rare area of bipartisan unease.

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And while voters may feel flying is riskier now, they’re not aligned on who to blame. When asked who’s more responsible for recent issues regarding air traffic control, 35% blame the former Biden administration, while a slightly larger group (39%) blame the Trump administration. Unsurprisingly, there is a partisan split: Democrats are more likely to point a finger at Trump, while Republicans pile on Biden.

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But here’s the thing: In most regards, flying is about as safe as it’s ever been, at least so far.

Despite high-profile crashes, the number of monthly accidents in the U.S. among private and commercial airline flights is in line with recent norms, according to data from the National Transportation Safety Board. For instance, the data for last month is preliminary, but if it holds, it would be the second-safest April since 2000. And the safest April came in 2020, at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, when there were far fewer flights than usual.

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What’s driving the misperception of the safety of air travel? Media coverage might be a big part of it. (We at Daily Kos have covered our fair share of flying fiascos.) And the sheer visibility of accidents makes them feel more common than they are.

But that doesn’t let Trump off the hook. He’s done little to instill public confidence in air travel, repeatedly refusing to take responsibility for accidents. Meanwhile, behind closed doors, his close ally Elon Musk reportedly pushed to fire air traffic controllers amid what was already a shortage—because who needs oversight at 600 miles per hour?

President Donald Trump

The bottom line: The Trump administration seems determined to flirt with disaster at a time when voters are already scared.

Losing the policy war

Trump’s second term has been marked by a flurry of unpopular executive actions, but new data shows just how unpopular Trump’s agenda is.

YouGov recently released public opinion data on 250 policies proposed, endorsed, or implemented by the Trump administration. The data is pulled from polls conducted since Trump took office, and they didn’t mention him or other political figures by name. The survey questions were stripped down and plain, with Americans asked “Would you support or oppose the following?”

And the results are brutal for Trump

In averages across nearly every policy area, Trump is underwater. Immigration (-6), the economy (-8), education (-14), foreign policy (-25), and health care (-31)—all are net negative, meaning more people oppose them than support them on average. Only one policy area shows Trump with more average support than opposition: LGBTQ+ rights. There, 48% of Americans have backed his approach, while 38% have opposed it, on average.

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Why the outlier? It’s likely because Trump’s LGBTQ+ policies are really about attacking transgender people. For instance, rather than loudly going after same-sex marriage, which a strong majority of Americans want to remain legal, Trump is targeting a vulnerable minority. And unfortunately, discomfort with transgender people remains widespread, even among Democrats. As grim as that is, it explains why a lot of voters support Trump here.

Breaking down YouGov’s data by political party also reveals where Trump’s agenda plays—and where it flops. Take his executive order barring schools from using diversity, equity, and inclusion principles to evaluate discipline: Republicans love it (net +56 support), but independents (-4) and Democrats (-44) reject it, according to a poll YouGov conducted recently.

Or his federal hiring freeze: Democrats hate it (net -44 support), and even independents are split, with a -12 net disapproval overall for this bloc, but Republicans still widely back it (+55).

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That shows how Trump’s policies often provoke major backlash, even when they poll abovewater with his base.

Overall, the numbers paint a clear picture: Most of Trump’s agenda just isn’t popular.

Any updates?

Congressional Republicans are pushing deep cuts to Medicaid, the health program that covers millions of low-income and disabled Americans, but Americans aren’t on board: Just 12% support cutting funding for or eliminating Medicaid, according to a new YouGov poll. Only 17% back cuts to Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, the federal food assistance program. A new Civiqs poll for Daily Kos backs this up: 67% of registered voters oppose reducing funding for Medicaid, while only 28% support it.

Trump’s antics on social media are well documented—and widely reviled. According to YouGov, 42% of Americans have a negative view of content posted to Trump’s and the White House’s social media accounts, while only 27% view it positively. Unsurprisingly, Republicans are the most receptive. But when the White House is out here posting dystopian ASMR videos of immigrants getting deported, what kind of reaction do you expect?

Vibe check

Democrats don’t win points by playing nice with Republicans. Just ask California Gov. Gavin Newsom.

Lately, Newsom has cozied up to some of the worst that the right has to offer. He invited infamous bigot Charlie Kirk onto his podcast, where the two agreed that Democrats went too far by being nice to transgender athletes. He has also criticized gender-inclusive language, questioning why Democrats use the term “Latinx.”

But chasing the middle doesn’t help. It just makes you appear weak and inauthentic. And voters agree. According to Civiqs, 54% of registered voters have an unfavorable view of Newsom, up from 51% right before the Kirk interview. And his “favorable” number plummeted from 32% to just 26%.

Democrats are the most unforgiving. Only 53% of them now view him favorably, down from 67% before the Kirk interview.

Newsom may have his eyes on the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, but if this is his strategy, he’s already off track. While he’s busy chasing voters who will never support him, he’s losing the ones who might have.

Andrew Mangan contributed research.

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