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The reverse Robin Hood budget is because this is their last chance to do it for a long time. [1]

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Date: 2025-05-24

So much for compromise in Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill,” eh? Not only are the cuts not being scaled down, not only will there not be a tax increase on the wealthy in the spirit of budgetary seriousness, but there’s a debt-financed tax cut. Despite the pain that will be inflicted, the budget deficit and national debt will go up significantly.

As usual when Donald Trump is involved, trying to explain this in terms of policy is futile. Budget cuts in a package that will not reduce the deficit but will life harder for the poor. What’s the point? The answer is easy to figure out if you’re looking at it that way, though.

Donald Trump has occasionally been quite a triangulator. Although he tried to repeal Obamacare (which would have killed a lot of people due to lost health coverage) and was rumored to be considering Social Security cuts if he pulled that off, he did COVID stimulus and ran for a second term attacking Ron DeSantis for having supporting cutting SS in the past. Not now. This is pure austerity and tax cuts for millionaires and billionaires.

There are two reasons for this that actually make a lot of sense. First, it is more likely than not that Trump is in his final years in office. That would make him a lame duck lacking the usual fear of public opinion. And unlike a lot of two-termers he does not have a House and/or Senate of the other party or even a large coalition of ideological opponents (which bedeviled Presidents Roosevelt, Truman, Kennedy, Nixon, and Reagan at times). Why shouldn’t he go for broke?

But the time when he can actually go for broke is limited. In the midterm elections a year and a half from now, the Republicans can only afford to lose two House seats and remain in the majority. The average loss for presidents since the Berlin Wall came down? Twenty-two in the House. Not to mention that, despite gerrymanders, a 2.6-point margin of popular vote victory left Republicans with a majority this narrow. Lose it by a point and the lower chamber could still go over.

And then there’s the reality of incumbent-free elections tending to be won by the opposition, albeit just barely. Even if the Republicans — God forbid — pull 2028 out, coattails aren’t what they used to be. Meaning that a President Trump Jr. or Vance may be stuck with House Speaker Hakeem Jeffries.

That is why they need to do this now. Political fundamentals suggest that they won’t get another chance for a very long time.

Still, it’s not quite over yet. The Senate still has its issues with the bill to work out. If it ultimately fails, that will be a heartbreaking defeat for Republicans precisely because of the clock they’re running against.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/5/24/2324158/-The-reverse-Robin-Hood-budget-is-because-this-is-their-last-chance-to-do-it-for-a-long-time?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=more_community&pm_medium=web

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