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How many could lose coverage via the #MedicaidMassacre bill in the 29 most vulnerable GOP districts? [1]
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Date: 2025-05-22
Welp. House Republicans did indeed follow through with passing their horrific (and disgustingly-titled) "One Big Beautiful Bill" Act which will effectively repeal the bulk of the ACA without officially repealing it, and that's just for starters.
The final vote was 215 - 214, with every Republican except a handful voting for it (and the two who voted against it openly admitted to the NY Times that they would have voted for it if their votes had been needed), and every Democrat voting against it. There were 2 Republican "no" votes...but both of those were only because they wanted the final bill to be even more draconian.
The Congressional Budget Office projected the bill, if enacted, will result in at least 13.7 million more Americans losing healthcare coverage (and that was based on a prior version of the bill; the new version is considered even more extreme).
13.7 million is roughly 30% of the combined total of exchange enrollees, BHP enrollees (MN/NY/OR only) and Medicaid expansion enrollees nationally (~46 million)...but again, the new version is even harsher, with the so-called "work reporting requirements" (aka the "Job Loss Penalty") now scheduled to kick in sooner, which would kick even more people off of coverage.
Sure enough, the new version of the bill would move the Job Loss Penalty (aka "Work Reporting Requirements") up from starting in 2029 to starting on Dec. 31, 2026. This alone would mean 2 more years of coverage losses.
In any event, there are over 2 dozen House Republicans who represent swing districts, or at least districts where they only won last their races by 12 points or less last November.
Above I've posted district-wide healthcare coverage enrollment estimates for all 29 of these House districts for reference. On average, at least 11.7% of their total populations (1 out of every ~8.5 residents) is at risk of losing healthcare coverage assuming a) the #MedicaidMassacre bill passes & is implemented and b) the GOP-controlled Congress fails to extend the improved federal APTC subsidies included in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) several years ago beyond 2025.
BELOW, I’ve posted pie charts which break out the estimated healthcare coverage enrollment in Medicaid, ACA exchange plans & BHP plans, as well as Medicare, employer-provided coverage and those uninsured (the latter is based on 2-yr old Census estimates, so take them with a grain of salt).
PLEASE SHARE THESE GRAPHICS WIDELY ON SOCIAL MEDIA! I can even whip up high-res PDF versions suitable for printing out to poster board for protests, rallies & town halls upon request!
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