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Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: Big Beautiful Bill stuck in the mud (but will pass) [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2025-05-21

New York Times:

Investors are wary of the fiscal risk. The prospect of adding significantly to the federal deficit has given the normally rock-solid market for U.S. government debt a roller coaster feel lately. Monday saw a rapid sell-off in 30-year Treasury bonds, in which yields jumped to their highest level since 2023 after Moody’s cut America’s triple-A credit rating on Friday. Things are quieter on Tuesday, with the 30-year Treasury at 4.93 percent. Analysts see a pattern. Foreign investors appear to be shying away from U.S. assets, including the dollar and Treasury notes and bonds. The “sell America” trade picked up in the early days of Trump’s tariff fight and shows signs of accelerating as a vote nears on the Republican tax-and-spending bill.

x The bipartisan hatred of James Comey is honestly heartwarming https://t.co/LO36wngEMe — Adam Carlson (@admcrlsn) May 20, 2025

New York Times:

It appears that Trump’s message to SALT holdouts, effectively to just take the deal on the table and move on, hasn’t moved the needle. Representative Mike Lawler, Republican of New York and one of the most vocal proponents of raising the SALT cap — the amount of state and local taxes that can be written off on federal tax returns — said the current offer on the table from leadership was “insufficient.” “We will continue the dialogue with leadership, but as it stands right now, I do not support the bill,” he said

x Spartz saying she’s a no is the best indicator this bill will pass (and with her vote) https://t.co/ocNpiHmGQ6 — Jacob Rubashkin (@JacobRubashkin) May 20, 2025

Cook Political Report:

A Comprehensive New Data Analysis Into Why Harris Lost in 2024 According to Catalist, the electorate was indeed more populated with frequent voters than at any point in the last three presidential elections. The share of the electorate that were so-called “super voters” — those who voted in all of the last four major elections — was 47%, compared to just 38% of the electorate in 2020. More importantly, Harris did better among these voters than any previous Democratic nominee since 2016, capturing 50% of the vote, compared to Biden’s 49% and Hillary Clinton’s 47%. The least frequent voters also made up less of the electorate overall in 2024 (11%) than in 2020 (16%) and 2016 (15%). Both of those data points — the large share of “super voters” and the smaller share of less frequent voters — suggest that Harris should have been successful in 2024. So why wasn’t she? Because Harris not only underperformed Biden among those who were brand new to voting, but also among people who had voted in anywhere from one to three of the last four elections.

Note the Latina problem, and younger voters, but higher prices and housing costs might adjust that towards Team Blue. In any case, the issue remains ‘opt-out’ voters, who get their info from social media.

x Fascinating survey work from @awh & co on the union vote in 2024, featuring an actual survey comparing union and non-union workers (including enough union workers to compare vote by the specific organization the respondent belonged to) https://t.co/MBTOu1JmgZ pic.twitter.com/gCfNnrPaJU — Jonathan Robinson (@jon_m_rob) May 19, 2025

NOTUS:

‘He’s Not a Detail Guy’: Trump Pitches Very Different Reconciliation Bill to House GOP “Don’t fuck around with Medicaid,” Trump told House Republicans, according to a source in the room. President Donald Trump arrived on Capitol Hill Tuesday morning with a clear mission: sell his “big, beautiful bill” to House Republicans. But if Trump wanted to convince the holdouts that this legislation is a winner, he may need to re-familiarize himself with the bill currently under consideration, because Trump urged Republicans to pass a very different measure from the one Speaker Mike Johnson and his conference has produced.

Hard to tell if he doesn’t know or doesn’t care. You land in the same place regardless.

x Alex Lawson to @RepMMM: Last time you spoke with us you lied to our face and said you wouldn’t vote for Medicaid cuts, but you’ve voted for the largest cuts in history.



Do you have any comment on the health care 67,000 people in your district are going to lose? pic.twitter.com/51TM8ith5V — Social Security Works (@SSWorks) May 20, 2025

G Elliott Morris/Strength in Numbers:

The "best pollsters” of 2024 are doing a lot of things that just don't add up What is really behind their accuracy? With that out of the way, time to move on to the piece. The three big points are: The “best” pollsters in 2024 were some of the worst in 2018 and 2022 (so how good will they be next time?) The “best” pollsters in 2024 dramatically overestimate Republicans compared to other surveys (are they good, or just lucky?) The “best” pollsters in 2024 are also the shadiest about their methods (if they’ve solved the problem, why won’t they show their work?)

x Would be funny if it wasn't so terrifying https://t.co/YxHXyp59ZT — Brendan Nyhan (@BrendanNyhan on 🟦☁️) (@BrendanNyhan) May 20, 2025

Jonathan V Last/The Bulwark:

Joe Biden Isn’t Your Scapegoat Biden failed. So did the rest of us. Biden’s belief was that the Trump moment was an aberration and that America could return to its liberal equilibrium if he governed normally and gave the Republican party space to heal itself and turn away from its authoritarian project. Biden’s theory of the case was shredded by events. There’s no way he could have known it would be. The course he chose looked like wisdom at the time; had he taken the radical path it would have been dangerous and there are no guarantees that it would have worked, either. But we can say, without qualification: Biden’s strategy for defeating populist authoritarianism failed. It’s odd that no one talks about this failure, even though it’s infinitely more important than his student loan scheme or the Hunter Biden pardon.3

Philip Bump/Washington Post:

What you — yes, you — should know about interacting with ICE A legal expert explains the rights immigrants — and U.S. citizens — have when facing immigration officials. The Trump administration is aware that Americans broadly support the deportation of undocumented immigrants who have committed violent crimes. Rather than using it as the basis for deporting violent immigrants, though, the administration often works backward: Knowing that Americans want to see violent criminals sent out of the country, it sends people out of the country, while arguing that they were violent criminals. There is a dangerous catch-22 at play. The government reserves the right to scoop people up and send them to foreign prisons, but, by ignoring due process, reserves for itself the ability to determine whether that treatment is warranted.

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