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Now more 2024 counterfactuals and second-guessing with the Biden diagnosis [1]

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Date: 2025-05-18

The story of 2024 remains the overlapping weeks of pro-Biden resistance within the campaign as the move to replace Biden with Harris arrived.

Likely the extra weeks would not have made any difference considering the war of superPac financing and the dogged reactionary voting in the swing states.

Could extra time with greater consensus have made the difference in the swing states for Dems in 2024.

The counterfactual is to have stuck with Biden, winning 2024, and ensuring a transition to Harris during the Biden second term.

OTOH, this is what losing has brought:

If you’ve been reading post-election coverage, you’ve probably seen one of the big takeaways from the returns so far: In counties across the country, Kamala Harris won many fewer votes than Joe Biden did four years ago. With the vast majority of votes counted, she has more than 74 million; Mr. Biden received more than 81 million four years ago. Donald J. Trump, in contrast, has 77 million votes, up from 74 million four years ago. The drop-off in Democratic vote tallies was largest in big cities. In places like New York, Chicago and Los Angeles, Mr. Trump made significant gains in terms of vote share but didn’t necessarily earn many more votes than he did four years ago. Instead, Democratic tallies plunged. As such, it’s tempting to conclude that Democrats simply didn’t turn out this year — and that Ms. Harris might have won if they had voted in the numbers they did four years ago. This interpretation would be a mistake. For one, the story doesn’t apply to the battlegrounds, where turnout was much higher. In all seven battleground states, Mr. Trump won more votes than Mr. Biden did four years ago. More important, it is wrong to assume that the voters who stayed home would have backed Ms. Harris. Even if they had been dragged to the polls, it might not have meaningfully helped her. In Las Vegas and elsewhere, our data suggests that most voters who turned out in 2020 but stayed home in 2024 voted for Mr. Biden in 2020, but about half of them, and maybe even a slight majority, appear to have backed Mr. Trump this year . Regardless, there’s no reason to believe that they would have backed Ms. Harris by a wide margin, let alone the kind of margin that would have made a difference in the election. www.nytimes.com/...

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A sizable amount of the “elites” who want Biden out also don’t want Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee, and mentioned that replacing Biden (especially if the nominee is other than Harris) could come with legal risk.

www.huffpost.com/entry/aoc-no...



[image or embed] — Justin Gibson (@jgibsondem.bsky.social) July 19, 2024 at 10:23 PM

Still, many top Democrats have been forced to reckon with their staunch support of Mr. Biden’s re-election campaign before a disastrous debate last June, in which he appeared disoriented and listless. After dropping out, Mr. Biden endorsed Ms. Harris, who lost to Mr. Trump. Adding fuel to the fire was the release this weekend of the audio from Mr. Biden’s 2023 interview with Robert K. Hur, the special counsel who investigated his handling of classified documents. Axios published the full five-hour tape ahead of the Trump administration’s plans to release it this week, and it reveals Mr. Biden’s halting voice and his difficulty providing dates and details. Mr. Hur ultimately declined to recommend charges against Mr. Biden in part because, he said, a jury would find the president to be a “sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory.” www.nytimes.com/...

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