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Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: Regret? Embarrassment? It's something. [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2025-05-17

G Elliott Morris/Strength in Numbers:

Do any Trump voters regret their choice? It's a hard question to answer. Our poll suggests many do. In a poll of 1,000 U.S. adults, I find that if you ask people simply how they would vote in a hypothetical election (not framed as regret), persistent voting for Trump is in fact significantly lower than persistent support for Kamala Harris. The percentage of Trump 2024 voters who say they'd vote for him again is just 86%. In comparison, Harris retains 92% of her prior voters. Those differences seem small, but in a close election, they absolutely add up… At least according to their revealed preferences, Trump voters do seem to be somewhat to significantly regretful — and potentially even more regretful than Harris voters, though these percentages are within the margin of error of each other. The cross-over voters are also killer for Trump; 5% of his 2024 supporters say they'd vote for Harris if the 2024 election were held again today, compared to 1% for Trump. But what people tend to ignore is the non-voters. A meaningful number of people who sat out 2024 now say they would participate, and they lean toward Harris over Trump by 14 points. While 2024 voters are split 43% to 43% for Trump and Harris in the hypothetical rematch, non-voters go for Harris 36% to 22%. Non-voters represent about a third of U.S. adults, so that shift is large enough to tip the electoral balance away from Trump overall (as reported in our first release of Verasight data). The “regret” that matters most may not be among Trump’s base, but among those who didn’t vote at all.

x ⛔️UMich Consumer #Sentiment falls 2.7% in May to lowest since June '22❗️



🔻Current -3.7%

🔻Expectations -1.7%



⚠️Sentiment down +30% since January on worries about #tariffs, #inflation, #income

⚠️Pervasive across age, education, income, wealth, political affiliations & regions pic.twitter.com/U5LdMJ9Dd7 — Gregory Daco (@GregDaco) May 16, 2025

Adrian Carrasquillo/The Bulwark:

Exclusive: Trump’s Losing the Latino Voters He Won in ’24 New poll shows real cracks in the president’s backing—and opportunities for Democrats. The poll by Equis Research, a Democratic group, conducted in conjunction with Data for Progress, showed that 66 percent of Latino voters believe Trump’s deportation actions “are going too far and targeting the types of immigrants who strengthen our nation.” Critically, that figure included 36 percent of Latinos who voted for Trump in 2024. A sizable minority of respondents—29 percent—view Trump’s actions as “good and fair,” agreeing with the statement “if some people who are not criminals suffer because of it, it’s the price to pay to ensure our safety.” And the most interesting data point: Among voters who backed Joe Biden in 2020 but moved to Trump last year—the category Equis calls “Biden defectors”—64 percent said Trump has gone too far on mass deportation.

Steve Schale/The Bulwark with the best piece you’ll read on the topic:

I Worked for Joe Biden. I Love Joe Biden. He Must Rethink His Post-Presidency. I understand his desire to defend his legacy. But he needs to do it differently. PEOPLE WHO RUN FOR PRESIDENT are not wired like the rest of us. I’ve had the honor to work for two of them, and a chance to meet many others. A few years back, Nikole (my wife) and I were in Boston and went to see former Gov. Michael Dukakis at his home for afternoon coffee. Sitting around his kitchen table, one thing was clear: That 1988 race was still as fresh in his mind as it was the day he ran it. For example, he asked me about specific counties in Florida, and remembered what his margins had been. He may have moved on to other things in his life—but over that race, he was not. I’ve also never met a candidate for president who thought they would lose. That included Biden in 2016, even though he decided not to run. I remember the pain in his voice when he called to say he wasn’t going to do it. In those times I saw him during the 2016 general election, he felt confident the race wouldn’t be close if he were in. You knew it bothered him that the window had seemingly closed. And then it opened up again.

x Moodys downgrade, SCOTUS rebuke on immigration and record worst consumer sentiment — quite the Friday news dump — Glenn Thrush (@GlennThrush) May 16, 2025

Karen Tumulty/Washington Post:

26 hours and 33 failed amendment votes: This is Democrats’ masterclass in resistance In the marathon committee session, Democrats showed how best to challenge Republicans on Medicaid. For a party that has been shut out of power in Washington, what happened this week in Room 2123 of the Rayburn House Office Building was a masterclass in resistance. Over more than 26 sleepless hours that began on Tuesday afternoon and continued into Wednesday, Democrats on the House Energy and Commerce Committee pounded the panel’s Republican majority with 33 amendments, most of which were aimed at stripping the GOP’s “big, beautiful bill” containing politically toxic cuts to Medicaid. In the hallway outside, police arrested more than two dozen protesters, many of whom were in wheelchairs. Every one of the amendments failed, as Democrats knew they would. But their coordinated assault on the centerpiece of President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda framed a powerful narrative that is shaping up to be the party’s most potent message heading into next year’s midterm elections.

A reminder that minority power is limited, but what you can do, you do.

x New YouGov policy polling

During Donald Trump's second term, YouGov has polled Americans about 250 policies proposed, endorsed, or implemented by Trump and his administration.

Average net support: -17

(Link in reply) pic.twitter.com/YK264PpXhh — YouGov America (@YouGovAmerica) May 16, 2025

Pablo Manriquez/Migrant Insider:

The Biggest Story in Deportation News Spoiler: It's still the funding. Tucked inside Donald Trump’s “one big beautiful bill”—a budget reconciliation package moving through Congress that would put deportation and detention on steroids—House Republicans quietly slipped in two more betrayals this week that cut to the bone of migrant life in America. The first: a 5% excise tax on remittances. That’s money sent by immigrants to help family members survive in Guatemala, El Salvador, the Philippines, Haiti—millions wired home each week from restaurant backrooms, construction sites, and cleaning jobs. Under the GOP plan, that money gets taxed. The second: a provision targeting protected status for Afghan war allies—the same interpreters, drivers, and fixers who risked their lives to help American troops during the longest war in U.S. history. The betrayal is so blatant it barely needs commentary. These additions came during a markup by the powerful House Ways and Means Committee, one of five now hacking apart and weaponizing the reconciliation bill that already includes: $45 billion for ICE detention , boosting capacity to 100,000 beds—a 364% increase.

$14.4 billion for deportation operations.

$46.5 billion for Trump’s border wall.

$8 billion to hire new ICE agents.

$5 billion to deploy the military to the border.

Here’s a spotlight on elections to come, in this case in Pennsylvania:

Alex Burness/Bolts:

Why Pittsburgh Progressives Are Targeting Judge Elections This Year Reform groups in Allegheny County endorsed candidates with experience in public defense, social work, or civil rights in the May 20 primaries—part of a long game to shift local power. This slate features candidates from backgrounds that tend to be underrepresented in the judiciary, with multiple current or former public defenders, a former social worker, a union lawyer, and a civil rights attorney. Only one has worked as a prosecutor, compared to at least seven of the 14 candidates who are not on the slate, according to Bolts’ review of their biographies. The groups backing the “Slate of Eight,” such as the Pennsylvania Working Families Party and Pittsburgh’s Alliance for Police Accountability, hope that people with these types of experiences would, as judges, be attuned to the issues faced by criminal defendants, from high bail to poor jail conditions. Their work matches nationwide efforts by progressives to place people with public defense experience on the bench, including through local elections, and to push against the usual dominance of prosecutors. Local police unions, which have tended to oppose criminal justice reforms, have endorsed at least five competing candidates in the Allegheny County race, four of whom are former prosecutors.

Lauren Gil/Bolts:

Philadelphia Measure Would Bolster Oversight for the City’s Deadly Jails On May 20, Philadelphia voters will choose whether to create an independent body to investigate dangerous conditions that have plagued the city’s jails for decades. Local officials and advocates are now asking Philadelphia residents to approve a new system of oversight for the city’s deadly jails, which are run by the Philadelphia Department of Prisons, or PDP. On May 20, Philadelphia voters will decide Question 3, a proposed amendment to the city’s charter that would create the Philadelphia Prison Community Oversight Board, and a new city Office of Prison Oversight to support the board’s work. The board would be empowered with a dedicated city fund (at least 0.45 percent of the PDP’s budget, or an estimated $1.3 million) and the authority to subpoena records and make unannounced visits to Philadelphia jails. The board would also be required to investigate the jails and hold monthly public meetings with the city’s jail commissioner to share its findings and make recommendations to improve conditions and treatment for the more than 3,300 people incarcerated in the city’s jails. Isaiah Thomas, a city councilmember who co-sponsored legislation to put the question before voters, told Bolts in a statement that “years of neglect have left Philly’s prisons in chaos,” and the oversight board would create “real, tangible accountability.”

x This isn't a nit-picky point based on a technicality or an asterisk. It isn't analysis from a far left group, the White House sent these tables out and posted them on their website. They're still there: https://t.co/Dc4Tlb6siC



These tables say working people get a tax hike pic.twitter.com/27EXUdXlKj — Aaron Fritschner (@Fritschner) May 16, 2025

Or if you prefer, different angle but same issue from New York Times: G.O.P. Tax Bill May Hurt the Lowest Earners and Help the Richest.

Cliff Schecter and Stephanie Miller on Democratic resistance:

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